Mayweather vs Maidana Round by Round Simulation & Prediction

[SBR Lou]

Round by Round

• Round 1: Maidana, despite the pre-fight hype, starts slow and is not busy enough to win the round.
• Round 2: Maidana throws more but does not land any more than he did in round 1.
• Round 3: Mayweather stuns Maidana, which frustrates him and causes a bull-rush with punches that please the crowd but do not register.
• Round 4: Maidana continues the assault on Mayweather's arms and shoulders but does not land any clean effective blows. He may be given the round on one of the judges scorecards.
• Round 5: Maidana appears to be getting frustrated as Mayweather is peppering him with lead right hands at will. Maidana is warned for hitting low.
• Round 6: Mayweather lands the most connects of the bout so far and the crowd appears to be aware their man is in danger zone.
• Round 7: Maidana is noticeably gassed and goes down on a perfectly timed left hook. He shoots right back up and survives the rest of the round.
• Round 8: Mayweather utilizes mostly lateral movement and potshots Maidana, but Maidana in trying to atone for the knockdown appears busy enough to steal the round.
• Round 9: The crowd is silenced again as Mayweather snaps Maidana's head back several times and the Argentine's corner attempt to revive Maidana.
• Round 10: Neither man lands anything of much significance and Maidana tries to flurry to steal the round.
• Round 11: Mayweather lands the crisper shots and stuns Maidana late in the round.
• Round 12: Mayweather uses more movement than in any of the other rounds. Maidana is unable to connect.

Final scores:
116-111 Mayweather
114-113 Maidana
117-110 Mayweather

[latarianmilton]

i agree with rounds 1, 2 and 12.
chino is tough, he is not gonna get dropped or even stunned.

[zizoudane10]

Gonna be another boring fight I guess....

[SBR Lou]

Gonna be another boring fight I guess....

Well, I do think that some of the shots Maidana takes will visibly hurt him. For fans looking for a guy to be tagged clean, cut, and potentially wobbled here and there, it has the potential to satisfy. But if you are looking for a two-sided exchange or all out war, look elsewhere.

I will also say that although I predict the fight to go as outlined, if I were wagering, I'd absolutely allocate some units on Mayweather by stoppage. Maidana reminds me of Hatton a little bit, even Gatti in terms of his ruggedness, and we know what both of those fighters had in common against Mayweather. There are some other reasons I like Mayweather by stoppage, but again I'd say it's a value opportunity and not necessarily what I'd want most of a bankroll riding on.

[jjgold]

Mayweather is due to lose watch out here and probably worth a small play on the dog

Lou is one of the top five sharpest boxing analyst at SBR

[brooks85]

How many times has maidana been hurt with a big punch?

[phillybadboy]

maidana 11 rounds mayweather 1 round winner maidana 100x

[Christopher1991]

Very few times,I remember Khan dropping him with a brutal body punch and Ortiz sending him to the canvas a couple of times, but that's about it.

[DoubleR90]

Floyd is the obvious win, the real question is on the round total imo. I don't lay -1000 on any bet regardless of how much of a lock it is so I'm either betting the total or nothing at all

[CollegeBoi]

This^^

[currentsports101]

Floyd is the obvious win, the real question is on the round total imo. I don't lay -1000 on any bet regardless of how much of a lock it is so I'm either betting the total or nothing at all

At those odds is it even worth it? Gotta lay 50,000 to win 5,000 or more depending on the sportsbook Pinnacle has it at -1200.

[DoubleR90]

At those odds is it even worth it? Gotta lay 50,000 to win 5,000 or more depending on the sportsbook Pinnacle has it at -1200.

That's exactly my point. Right now the only thing about this fight I am handicapping is whether or not it will go the full 12 rounds

[brooks85]

going to stop over thinking it, this is floyd after all. Decision it is.

[InTheDrink]

No one really thinks Floyd is gonna knock him down or out do they?

Disregard the op because Lou knows very little about sports

[SBR Lou]

going to stop over thinking it, this is floyd after all. Decision it is.

It's the most likely play, but there are stronger factors in support of the KO than in any fight I can remember. So really it depends on the number you get. There are some good opportunities.

[crustyme]

so he predicts a split decision here and a ko in the other.

[SBR Lou]

so he predicts a split decision here and a ko in the other.

I think a little reading comprehension shows that I'm acknowledging the safest bet to be Mayweather ML (duh, look at the darn odds), but that there are certain factors supporting a stoppage bet as a side bet at a good price. I don't think it is wise to ever only have exposure on a by KO market for any decent sized play. It's more of an icing on the cake bet to add in.

[SBR Lou]

Final scores:
116-111 Mayweather
114-113 Maidana
117-110 Mayweather

Close enough but would have liked to see the knockdown/KO.

[homie1975]

I told u prefight that maidanas awkward style and punches from various angles would give floyd problems but he woukd win it going the distance. It was the best prefight analysis on this site