Mousasi +225

[MD]

I think he should be slightly favoured here. I'm expecting him to adjust to Machida's game pretty quickly, and throw him off by walking him down with leg and body kicks, then teep kicking frequently as Machida comes in. I think he has a decent shot of catching Machida and knocking him out, also. Just not a good fight for Machida, stylistically, but hey, I've been wrong before. I'd go into more detail, but I'm strapped for time, got some last-minute work to do before the card tonight. I could be way off here, and the lay off/injury factor could entice Mousasi's mediocre side into making an appearance, but I'm pretty confident. I'll be somewhat concerned if Machida aggressively goes for the takedown, and I still think it's a virtual coin flip, but I can't pass up those odds.

5u to win 11.25u.

[MD]

Went to +220 on Pinnacle as I was typing this. Still +225 on 5Dimes, I think.

[rosietop]

Its a pass for me on this fight brah.

Will never lay money on Machida, he has never faced such a tough good striker like Mousasi and when he did Shogun knocked him the feck out.

Same thing with Mousasi though, you are taking a chance with Mousasi he is not a lock I can assure you. I expect a really good Machida here.. I have passed up this fight altogether but putting money on Mousasi is definitely the right side from a long term perspective bet. He is worth the odds. Mousasi is a straight up tougher fighter than Machida if these 2 guys met in a bar Mousasi would beat him up but in the octagon I think Machida can be the better tactician.

[MD]

Its a pass for me on this fight brah.

Will never lay money on Machida, he has never faced such a tough good striker like Mousasi and when he did Shogun knocked him the feck out.

Same thing with Mousasi though, you are taking a chance with Mousasi he is not a lock I can assure you. I expect a really good Machida here.. I have passed up this fight altogether but putting money on Mousasi is definitely the right side from a long term perspective bet. He is worth the odds. Mousasi is a straight up tougher fighter than Machida if these 2 guys met in a bar Mousasi would beat him up but in the octagon I think Machida can be the better tactician.

I agree and I disagree. I think that Mousasi is the better tactician in the sense of how he can vary and adapt; Machida doesn't use a wide variety of tools, he's just achieved an otherworldly level of effectiveness with them. Mousasi can fight in any way that he wants, and is much more unpredictable. I think that Mousasi is a far better striker than Shogun, also, in pretty much every area (barring maybe kicks). I agree that we'll see a great Machida tonight, and one of the biggest risks is in assessing which version of Gegard is likely to show up. If he showed up at his absolute best, healthy, in shape, I wouldn't think this fight was nearly so close. Gegard at his best is probably the best striker at 185 other than Anderson (possibly, who knows how Anderson will look when he returns).

[rosietop]

oh I can almost guarantee you that Mousasi is coming in great shape, that kid is a true fighter, he woudlent be taking this fight if he didint think he could win.

If thats the only reason you wont back Mousasi, I would be laying a lot of money down if I were you. He is a fighter no way is he going to disadvantage himself to be champ. I see Mousasi going forward in this fight and looking for those powerful shots.

----

And what I really love about Luca Fury is that he says Mousasi is really unpredictable so he then recommended a 4 unit play on the fight almost going to decision. lol wtf?

[MD]

oh I can almost guarantee you that Mousasi is coming in great shape, that kid is a true fighter, he woudlent be taking this fight if he didint think he could win.

If thats the only reason you wont back Mousasi, I would be laying a lot of money down if I were you. He is a fighter no way is he going to disadvantage himself to be champ. I see Mousasi going forward in this fight and looking for those powerful shots.

I hope you're right, but Mousasi is notoriously inconsistent. I'm expecting it to be mitigated now that he's in the UFC and fighting someone worthy of him, but who knows. He made Keith Jardine look decent. That's an artform.

[rosietop]

I hope you're right, but Mousasi is notoriously inconsistent. I'm expecting it to be mitigated now that he's in the UFC and fighting someone worthy of him, but who knows. He made Keith Jardine look decent. That's an artform.

MD the fact that he is inconsistent is actually in your favor since his odds will be much better. This is probably the most important fight of his career you can bet your god dammed dollar that a great Mousasi shows up, whether he wins the fight or not is another question.

And Jardines not too bad, his fight with Rampage was close.

[Thor4140]

Only wager i would make on this one is Mousasi cause of the odds. Prolly won't bet it tho. Even up odds i would pass.

[MD]

Anyone else find it bizarre to think that Iuri Alcantara only has one win in his last four fights? Some bullshit, yes, but it's not the kind of record you'd expect the guy to have.

[Kermit]

I am on him too. The only thing that bothers me a bit and I am sure is being reflected with the odds is that he is coming off of knee surgery.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

MD the fact that he is inconsistent is actually in your favor since his odds will be much better. This is probably the most important fight of his career you can bet your god dammed dollar that a great Mousasi shows up, whether he wins the fight or not is another question.

And Jardines not too bad, his fight with Rampage was close.

jardine is terrible and the jardine that fought rampage and chuck was not the same jardine that fought mousasi...to be fair tho, mousasi got screwed by the judges...should not have been a draw even w/ the point deduction...

[Bumdeal]

I've had this fight circled for a long time. Only thing keeping me from loading up on mousasi is the fact that he's coming off injury. I love mousasi here. Very excited.

[marzwoody]

Lmao mousassi is a boring bum. who has he fought? the likes of the mighty mike pyle? have fun losing money.

[marzwoody]

Everyone gegards beat are several steps down from machida...

[MD]

Lmao mousassi is a boring bum. who has he fought? the likes of the mighty mike pyle? have fun losing money.

[Kermit]

Everyone gegards beat are several steps down from machida...

Man, GTF out of here. He may not win tonight, but this is crazy talk.

[marzwoody]

Is it? list of some impressive wins over fighters that are anywhere near machida. oh yeah there isn't any.

[MD]

Is it? list of some impressive wins over fighters that are anywhere near machida. oh yeah there isn't any.

Mark Hunt. Jacare Souza.

You're an idiot.

[Kermit]

Is it? list of some impressive wins over fighters that are anywhere near machida. oh yeah there isn't any.

He beat Babalu when he was on a win streak in 2009. Now go look at who Babalu beat up to that point.

[NunyaBidness]

Mark Hunt. Jacare Souza.

You're an idiot.

That Mark Hunt isn't the current Mark Hunt.

And Souza's chin beat himself in that fight.

[MD]

That Mark Hunt isn't the current Mark Hunt.

And Souza's chin beat himself in that fight.

What do even you think that means? Did you see that upkick? He dived right onto it, most everyone at 185 would be out cold after that.

[NunyaBidness]

What do even you think that means? Did you see that upkick? He dived right onto it, most everyone at 185 would be out cold after that.

So, you're saying that Souza dove onto the kick and you want to argue that it was not Souza who beat himself in that fight?

[Grabaka]

Im on Gay Guard Mousasi too. Good luck Marco

[marzwoody]

He beat Babalu when he was on a win streak in 2009. Now go look at who Babalu beat up to that point.

He sucks.

[MD]

So, you're saying that Souza dove onto the kick and you want to argue that it was not Souza who beat himself in that fight?

Yes! How do you think knockouts happen? People make mistakes and those mistakes are exploited. Mousasi's been throwing vicious upkicks for most of his career.

[marzwoody]

Mark Hunt. Jacare Souza.

You're an idiot.

[NunyaBidness]

Yes! How do you think knockouts happen? People make mistakes and those mistakes are exploited. Mousasi's been throwing vicious upkicks for most of his career.

How many of them ended in knockouts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

[MD]

How many of them ended in knockouts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

How many punches end in knockouts?

[NunyaBidness]

How many punches end in knockouts?

How many arguments do you ever give up on?

[MD]

How many arguments do you ever give up on?

Most, but I'm trying to sneak this one in.

[TheCalculator]

So, you're saying that Souza dove onto the kick and you want to argue that it was not Souza who beat himself in that fight?

The level of timing, perception and accuracy needed to land that kick the way he did is VERY high level. He's consistently shown high levels of all those attributes over his career.

[NunyaBidness]

The level of timing, perception and accuracy needed to land that kick the way he did is VERY high level. He's consistently shown high levels of all those attributes over his career.

Trololololol

Seems like he should've had an easy knockout of King Mo then, huh?

[MD]

Trololololol

Seems like he should've had an easy knockout of King Mo then, huh?

Hey, he landed the upkick on Mo, Mo just happened to be on the ground at the time.

[NunyaBidness]

Hey, he landed the upkick on Mo, Mo just happened to be on the ground at the time.

I don't remember the fight very well, he probably launched Mo out of the cage with his superpowers, right? DQ?

[MD]

I don't remember the fight very well, he probably launched Mo out of the cage with his superpowers, right? DQ?

Someone's touchy today.