UFC Fight Night: Machida Vs Mousasi (February 15, 2014)

[Vaughany]

fuuckin CAN fest.

Cancis Carmont
Viscardi Candrade
Rodrigo Cann
Candy Ogle
Ican Jorge
Cancisco Trinaldo
Yuri Alcantara
Felipe Acantes
Maximo Canco
Ildemar Alcantara

[marzwoody]

fuuckin CAN fest.

Cancis Carmont
Viscardi Candrade
Rodrigo Cann
Candy Ogle
Ican Jorge
Cancisco Trinaldo
Yuri Alcantara
Felipe Acantes
Maximo Canco
Ildemar Alcantara

I know right? if i wanted to see bums fight i would drive into the ghetto and throw some change out my window.

[TheCalculator]

I know right? if i wanted to see bums fight i would drive into the ghetto and throw some change out my window.

$20 bills go a looooong way in the ghetto.

[Dwil125]

Tumenov will finish or gas out pretty hard, with that being said...I like him here

This is pretty much what I came up with. I took fight won't go 3 rounds at -160

[Vaughany]

-333 Jacare at boylesports for my non usa friends!

[Beelzebubzy]

-333 Jacare at boylesports for my non usa friends!

please you know you be arbing cuz

[Imsmarterthanu]

Douglas Silva de Andrade

good fighter

[Vaughany]

please you know you be arbing cuz

no doubt son! Boyle lettin me bet £4 on this mofo

[goodfellas433]

Douglas Silva de Andrade

good fighter

Definitely seems to be...was wondering if this will be the trap bet
No line up at my book yet anyway

[marzwoody]

trap bet?

[goodfellas433]

Like the spurs -3 the other night. A bet that everyone and their mother is on, everybody has the same opinion, all making the same play....not much banter on it because everyone agrees its the right play.
Then it takes place and you couldn't possibly be any more wrong based on the outcome. I sort of feel that way about a couple of fights this weekend...it seems like everyone likes the same guys, are making the same exact parlays...we shall see

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Like the spurs -3 the other night. A bet that everyone and their mother is on, everybody has the same opinion, all making the same play....not much banter on it because everyone agrees its the right play.
Then it takes place and you couldn't possibly be any mire wrong based on the outcome. I sort of feel that way about a couple of fights this weekend...it seems like everyone likes the same guys, are making the same exact parlays...we shall see

[TheCalculator]

Not a whole lot of analysis going on here…

Let me start with Gegard Mousasi versus Lyoto Machida.


I think this fight is going to be a lot closer than the odds suggests. In many ways these guys have there is similar styles. Most people would not agree with that because Lyoto has a counter striking karate type stance and is very "stiff". Gegard is a loose fighter. The things they share in common are their perception and they're ability to move out of danger and they're both good counter strikers.


I wouldn't be surprised if Gegard steals two or three rounds possibly with the takedown and wins the fight by split decision or even unanimous decision. Lyoto has been on fire and does well with fighters are slower than he is. Gegard should be able to evade most of Lyoto's attacks and might win the fight with a few takedowns.

IMO the value is on Mousasi. And I like Mousasi by decision.

What's your thoughts?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Not a whole lot of analysis going on here…

Let me start with Gegard Mousasi versus Lyoto Machida.


I think this fight is going to be a lot closer than the odds suggests. In many ways these guys have there is similar styles. Most people would not agree with that because Lyoto has a counter striking karate type stance and is very "stiff". Gegard is a loose fighter. The things they share in common car their perception there ability to move out of danger and they're both good counter strikers.


I wouldn't be surprised if Gegard steals two or three rounds possibly with the takedown and wins the fight by split decision or even unanimous decision. Lyoto has been on fire and does well with fighters are slower than he is. Gegard should be able to evade most of Lyoto's attacks and might win the fight with a few takedowns.

IMO the value is on Mousasi. And I like Mousasi by decision.

What's your thoughts?

You are correct sir.

[Wilbo86]

Not a whole lot of analysis going on here…

Let me start with Gegard Mousasi versus Lyoto Machida.


I think this fight is going to be a lot closer than the odds suggests. In many ways these guys have there is similar styles. Most people would not agree with that because Lyoto has a counter striking karate type stance and is very "stiff". Gegard is a loose fighter. The things they share in common are their perception and they're ability to move out of danger and they're both good counter strikers.


I wouldn't be surprised if Gegard steals two or three rounds possibly with the takedown and wins the fight by split decision or even unanimous decision. Lyoto has been on fire and does well with fighters are slower than he is. Gegard should be able to evade most of Lyoto's attacks and might win the fight with a few takedowns.

IMO the value is on Mousasi. And I like Mousasi by decision.

What's your thoughts?

Yep, thats pretty much the way i was approaching it. A few things are keeping me from a big play on the Moose including his knee injury and that I have a terrible track record of betting machida fights.

Machida gets his vintage counter KO's against slow wrestle-boxer types. Mousasis isn't that. Over a five round fight I can see him managing on the feet, and probably getting it to the groud at least a few times where i think he'll have a big advantage. Took a flier on Mousasi by submission at at +1450 and going to wait till fight time for a straight play cuase i think the line will move against him just prior. Could be proven wrong but still think the value is on Mousasi.

Also going to take a look at inside the distance/over,under given 5rd and both are dangerous.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Yep, thats pretty much the way i was approaching it. A few things are keeping me from a big play on the Moose including his knee injury and that I have a terrible track record of betting machida fights.

Machida gets his vintage counter KO's against slow wrestle-boxer types. Mousasis isn't that. Over a five round fight I can see him managing on the feet, and probably getting it to the groud at least a few times where i think he'll have a big advantage. Took a flier on Mousasi by submission at at +1450 and going to wait till fight time for a straight play cuase i think the line will move against him just prior. Could be proven wrong but still think the value is on Mousasi.

Also going to take a look at inside the distance/over,under given 5rd and both are dangerous.

I've watched the Machida vs Hendo/Rampage fight's about half a dozen times & I can't help but think that Sweet & Sassy can do everything Hendo/Rampage did & then some. I see Sweet & Sassy winning via Dec. He will be busier than Machida or Rampage/Hendo were. Just a tiny play at this point though. However, I do have a decent amount on a Geale/Oliveira/Alcantara/Souza/Silva parlay.

[Dwil125]

no more knockout of the night or sub of the night bonuses. I took Silva by sub at +450 and was planning to take him for kotn and now we have "performance bonuses"

[Dwil125]

I've watched the Machida vs Hendo/Rampage fight's about half a dozen times & I can't help but think that Sweet & Sassy can do everything HendoRampage did & then some. I see Sweet & Sassy winning via Dec. He will be busier than Machida or Rampage/Hendo were. Just a tiny play at this point though. However, I do have a decent amount on a Geale/Oliveira/Alcantara/Souza parlay.

Hopefully yuri not his brother. I've bet on alcantara for like every fight except for against faber, hes a beast at 135/145.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Hopefully yuri not his brother. I've bet on alcantara for like every fight except for against faber, hes a beast at 135/145.

I do have a bit of trepidation. Ogle could win rounds 2 & 3 through will, right hands, clinch work against the cage & ground & pound.

[NunyaBidness]

I do have a bit of trepidation. Ogle could win rounds 2 & 3 through will, right hands, clinch work against the cage & ground & pound.

All he has to do is all of that AND teleport the cage out of Brazil and he's a lock!

[Ron_Paul_2012]

All he has to do is all of that AND teleport the cage out of Brazil and he's a lock!

Well I'm glad to hear that you believe Ogle has no chance. I can finally get a good night's sleep now.

[TheCalculator]

I could be wrong... But I think Ogle vs. Oliveira is one of the biggest mismatches of all time. I have a hard time picturing Ogle winning 5% of the time here.

[marzwoody]

Why cant i bet on the douglas silva de andrade fellow?

[Educ8d Degener8]

So some of you think NCAA Mousasi is gonna show up and win via takedowns?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

So some of you think NCAA Mousasi is gonna show up and win via takedowns?

If his knee is truly OK then it is not unconceivable that he could have a similar game plan as Rampage, Shogun & Hendo. But, do it better. He will be busier than Machida & could even get a few takedowns as well.

[Dwil125]

Why cant i bet on the douglas silva de andrade fellow?

Lines out now, I wouldn't play him though. I was hoping he would come out the favorite because of his record.

[Dwil125]

If his knee is truly OK then it is not unconceivable that he could have a similar game plan as Rampage, Shogun & Hendo. But, do it better. He will be busier than Machida & could even get a few takedowns as well.

Mousasi +5.5? I missed the decision prop at like +850 or whatever it opened.

[NunyaBidness]

Mousasi +5.5? I missed the decision prop at like +850 or whatever it opened.

It was +880, and it was beautiful.

[PunisherIND]

It was +880, and it was beautiful.

i make-a-do love to datch +880

[NunyaBidness]

i make-a-do love to datch +880

And then rolled over and hit the +660 for good measure.

[Wilbo86]

All this talk is getting me a little hot under the color.

[Wilbo86]

Anyone have an opinion on Carmont and his chances of putting on the spoil performance/stinker UD win? Is +500 a decent line? My heart says no, my head says no, but some other tiny part of me says maybe.

[Dwil125]

Anyone have an opinion on Carmont and his chances of putting on the spoil performance/stinker UD win? Is +500 a decent line? My heart says no, my head says no, but some other tiny part of me says maybe.

the +3.5 would probably be your best chance if you think Carmont can steal a round and not get finished.

[Dwil125]

Took Silva by submission +445, Sato has a decent chin. I could see silva putting him in a bad position and going for a sub, or hurting him with punches and going for a sub

[PunisherIND]

Anyone have an opinion on Carmont and his chances of putting on the spoil performance/stinker UD win? Is +500 a decent line? My heart says no, my head says no, but some other tiny part of me says maybe.

hehe