UFC Fight For the Troops 3 (November 06, 2013)

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Another ronpaul account! Respek

Between you and Marcus I think that you are giving Thor a run for his $ when it comes to paranoid conspiracy theories. Oh and I remember now that iron geek thinks that I am Pouyousophy or Pou Pou as I named him because most of his posts were sh*t.

[The iron sheik]

It's a fair assessment, as that account is the only account in this forum that has gone to the depths of stupidity you have

[mirinquads]

I've been pretty conservative in recent months too. Mostly has to do with lack of action and time, though.

Yeah, it pays for sure, though as soon as I'm winning a lot i get sloppy and bet too many fights and too many 'value plays'. Gotta stay disciplined this time around. Machida vs Davis raped my bank roll so hard i bet the room still stinks.

[MD]

Yeah, it pays for sure, though as soon as I'm winning a lot i get sloppy and bet too many fights and too many 'value plays'. Gotta stay disciplined this time around. Machida vs Davis raped my bank roll so hard i bet the room still stinks.

I prefer to take those small edges. It's much swingier (my bets recently are proof of that ), but more profitable long-term. It can be tough mentally, however.

[The iron sheik]

I prefer to take those small edges. It's much swingier (my bets recently are proof of that ), but more profitable long-term. It can be tough mentally, however.

For me, it's more of finding that edge and being comfortable with it. Kennedy -330 isn't exactly blockbuster play of the year material, but it was pretty much the only bet in this event that I thought was really valuable and uhhhh ...."an easy one". I did play some other thing, but I'll gladly admit it was not my own work that decided completely, it was also partly the work of some of the posters here who I think make fair assessments on things (*)



(*)will not name names, because there's sometimes an overabundance of personal relations drama in this forum

[MD]

For me, it's more of finding that edge and being comfortable with it. Kennedy -330 isn't exactly blockbuster play of the year material, but it was pretty much the only bet in this event that I thought was really valuable and uhhhh ...."an easy one". I did play some other thing, but I'll gladly admit it was not my own work that decided completely, it was also partly the work of some of the posters here who I think make fair assessments on things (*)



(*)will not name names, because there's sometimes an overabundance of personal relations drama in this forum

Don't worry bro, as long as my Khabilov play cashed for you, that's all that matters. No one will ever know.

In seriousness, I have a lot of bets per card, and I find that the most important thing is to never rule anything out. I see a lot of people flat-out say that they won't bet X in Y situation, and it's wrong. Value is value, any factor such as that just affects the probability, which should create value on one side or the other. No one factor is always going to bring a fight in line with the odds.

[The iron sheik]

Don't worry bro, as long as my Khabilov play cashed for you, that's all that matters. No one will ever know.

In seriousness, I have a lot of bets per card, and I find that the most important thing is to never rule anything out. I see a lot of people flat-out say that they won't bet X in Y situation, and it's wrong. Value is value, any factor such as that just affects the probability, which should create value on one side or the other. No one factor is always going to bring a fight in line with the odds.

True on all parts

Perhaps it's also the lack of time through work and other stuff that is getting in the way of this stuff. The Khabilov fight is a good example of that (oh and thanks for the suggestion, how did you guess ). Kind of what I was thinking too, but with the lack of time and thus the lack of proper analysis, "I'm feeling like it" just wasn't enough. I also think it's kind of silly that you and sider at least don't seem to get along, you two would really make a killing together

[Grabaka]

Don't worry bro, as long as my Khabilov play cashed for you, that's all that matters. No one will ever know.

In seriousness, I have a lot of bets per card, and I find that the most important thing is to never rule anything out. I see a lot of people flat-out say that they won't bet X in Y situation, and it's wrong. Value is value, any factor such as that just affects the probability, which should create value on one side or the other. No one factor is always going to bring a fight in line with the odds.

I dont believe you much.
You say never rule anything out but then say 96% chance to win for fighter A is because you are ruling out a ton of variables imo.

[MD]

I dont believe you much.
You say never rule anything out but then say 96% chance to win for fighter A is because you are ruling out a ton of variables imo.

Pretty rare that I say I think a fighter has a 90%+ chance to win, especially since I started trying to work on not overestimating my edges.

[Beelzebubzy]

Pretty rare that I say I think a fighter has a 90%+ chance to win, especially since I started trying to work on not overestimating my edges.

Flier on Elkins

[Grabaka]

Pretty rare that I say I think a fighter has a 90%+ chance to win, especially since I started trying to work on not overestimating my edges.

Alrighties fair enough amigo

[MD]

Alrighties fair enough amigo

Who're you liking tonight, Grab?

[Grabaka]

Not much bro. I got my worst event in the year on UFN 31 and tilted a little more the nest day. Pretty dumb. I pulled off 1 day and got myself back 12 units yesterday but i lost more than that on wednesday/thursday...i got cocky. Im a bit gunshy specially cos the work hasnt left me time to do good tape watching. Just like nunya says this is my smallest event of the year so far. I will be live betting the hell out of it tho.
That being said so far i have sarafian, sarafian ko, ortiz, ortiz's over, laflare ....hmmmmmm i think thats it. Im doing some tape now maybe i add something else but i also wanna try to keep it small so i can live bet more freely.
How about you bro?