BAFFLED: Why was Chael by sub only +500 against Rua?

**Kpn** · 08-21-13, 04:46 PM

Because it was a 5-round fight. Most people assumed Shogun would gas hard, and if he did gas hard a submission makes the most sense in terms of Chael winning. Had it been a 3round fight I'm sure the SUB prop would have been a substantially higher payout.

**Noleafclover** · 08-21-13, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I know it's old news, but I'm still baffled. I actually looked at the odds on this prop before the fight and thought there wasn't enough value at +500.

The line didn't make sense to me. How does a guy with 1 submission win in the last 6 years, who's fighting a guy who hasn't been submitted in 6 years (and is supposedly a master in BJJ) only get +500?

5-rd fight where sonnen expected to be laying on top of rua for rds 2.5-5 and has 0 power to finish with strikes, only way you do see sonnen ending is sub.

**mmaed** · 08-21-13, 06:13 PM

Its funny I actually said Sonnen might sub Shogun and I got flamed. I thought it would take place in round four or five though. I was shocked when he did it in round one and the way he did it.

**Luca Fury** · 08-21-13, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I know it's old news, but I'm still baffled. I actually looked at the odds on this prop before the fight and thought there wasn't enough value at +500.

The line didn't make sense to me. How does a guy with 1 submission win in the last 6 years, who's fighting a guy who hasn't been submitted in 6 years (and is supposedly a master in BJJ) only get +500?

5dimes has a lot of weirdly-priced props because they set them based on spread sheet calculations, not oddsmaker analysis.

**yisman** · 08-21-13, 07:44 PM

a lot of the MMA props at 5 Dimes, you could say the odds don't make sense if you look at the past history of the fighters (I sometimes look at how often a guy has won via sub/ko/decision and then look at the odds. Doesn't compute)

**mmaed** · 08-21-13, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

5dimes has a lot of weirdly-priced props because they set them based on spread sheet calculations, not oddsmaker analysis.

Im not sure about that. I think they take fighter skillsets into account when they formulate the odds. I am sure jake shields by submission will have a much higher payout than jake shields by decision when he fights maia.

MD · 08-21-13, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Im not sure about that. I think they take fighter skillsets into account when they formulate the odds. I am sure jake shields by submission will have a much higher payout than jake shields by decision when he fights maia.

o lawd

**mmaed** · 08-22-13, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by MD

o lawd

What?

**Vaughany** · 08-22-13, 02:39 AM

haha

**mirinquads** · 08-22-13, 05:35 AM

It was like +1450 at one point

We calculated that it was Babalu (the first man to guillotine Shogun) who taught Shael how to do it. Babalu was also in charge of Shoguns ground game during the camp, where he also tweaked Shogun to be susceptible to the particular submission, by giving up his neck when trying to stand up.

Im sure Thor will back me up on this.

Really though, kinda sad that the fight didn't go deeper, first round was interesting back and forth, Shogun even took Chael down and swept him at one point, could have been a really good fight.