Uriah Hall -385

[snapperman2]

The reason that betting a favorite when you have a certain edge is better than betting a dog with the same edge is that you can afford to bet more on the favorite without risking your bankroll too much, and thus you make more profit. For example, suppose that your EV is 5%. You expect to earn $5 for every $100 you bet. Lets say that Kelly criteria says you can afford to risk $100 on a +300 dog given your edge and your bankroll size. Then you could afford to risk $900 on a -300 favorite with the same 5% edge. You would expect to win $5 on the dog bet but $45 on the favorite bet even though the edge is the same. So the bet on the favorite has better expected growth than the dog bet.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Here's a calculation I would use. At MD's numbers (assuming he means +150, 40%), risking 300 to win 100 and risking 100 to win 300 over 100 bets, both bets will profit 6k. The favorite will win 90 times for 9k total and lose 10 times for 3k total. The dog will win 40 times for 12k total, and lose 60 times for 6k.

Now, I'm not sure how exactly "bankroll growth" is defined. As you can see we've risked much more on the favorite, so you might say the dog had better growth expectency per dollar risked?

Here's a look at some other numbers that somewhat helps to complete a rough valuation of percentages across different ranges.
at 10% (written) and 20% (true):
+900 +400 = 20x900 - 80x100 = 10000 profit on 100 bets
80%/90%
-400 -900 = 90x100 - 10x400 = 5000 profit
50%/60%
+100 -150 = 60x100 - 40x100 = 2000 profit

Basically, percentage points are worth the least around 40-60%, and continue to become worth more at the higher extremes. Kind of like an inverted pyramid. Seems like percentages are actually worth more on dogs at equal amounts (MD's 75 to 90% and 25 to 40% example is kind of misleading, since one is moving away from the low point at 50% and the other towards, that + dogs having more ... growth potential? is why they end up equal), so I suppose the pyramid's somewhat lopsided.

Kinda the way I see it anyway.... would love to hear confirmation/disagreement.

You're referring to ROI here.

ROI = profit/money risked.

Both the 75% fav & the 25% dog have the same profit but you need to risk far more of your BR on the 75% fav, hence the better return on your investment with the dog.

For the record, I'm not as much of a believer in ROI as some who swear by it. ROI doesn't take into consideration how long your funds are tied up. You can bet something the same day and profit 100% ROI by cashing an EVEN bet or you can bet a futures (say a fight 6 months down the road) with the same return and have the same ROI. Obviously the first example is much better for your BR because your funds aren't tied up and it can be rolled over for further profit.

[Noleafclover]

The reason that betting a favorite when you have a certain edge is better than betting a dog with the same edge is that you can afford to bet more on the favorite without risking your bankroll too much, and thus you make more profit. For example, suppose that your EV is 5%. You expect to earn $5 for every $100 you bet. Lets say that Kelly criteria says you can afford to risk $100 on a +300 dog given your edge and your bankroll size. Then you could afford to risk $900 on a -300 favorite with the same 5% edge. You would expect to win $5 on the dog bet but $45 on the favorite bet even though the edge is the same. So the bet on the favorite has better expected growth than the dog bet.

Fair enough, betting on favorites certainly produces less volatility so I can see why kelly would advise higher stakes there. But there is something to be said for dogs having higher edges - a bet listed at 10% that you see at 20% has a 100% edge, not the case with 80-90% (which has a ROI - thank you wannabet, thats the word i was looking for - of 50%).

[Noleafclover]

For the record, I'm not as much of a believer in ROI as some who swear by it. ROI doesn't take into consideration how long your funds are tied up. You can bet something the same day and profit 100% ROI by cashing an EVEN bet or you can bet a futures (say a fight 6 months down the road) with the same return and have the same ROI. Obviously the first example is much better for your BR because your funds aren't tied up and it can be rolled over for further profit.

For the record, only a problem if you frequently tie up 90+% of your bankroll, which would require very large bets or very frequent betting.

[Vaughany]

Just pick winnerz cuz