10 fights. 10 to 1 odds. Possible?

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  • FreddDS
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-29-10
    • 656

    #1
    10 fights. 10 to 1 odds. Possible?
    Crazy idea? Or brilliant? haha

    I'm thinking of making a $100 parlay on 10 fights, that add up to 10 to 1 odds, starting with next week's FOX show, leading up to the Jones-Gustafsson fight. I know anything can happen in MMA, but I feel pretty good with these fights. It's a small risk ($100) for a big reward ($1000).

    Looking for thoughts here? Anything screams out as a potential parlay ruiner? Bold are my picks.

    • UFC on FOX 8 - Jessica Andrade v Liz Carmouche
    • UFC on FOX 8 - Jake Ellenberger v Rory MacDonald
    • UFC on FOX 8 - John Moraga v Demetrious Johnson
    • UFC 163 - Anthony Perosh v Vinny Magalhaes
    • UFC 163 - Chan Sung Jung v Jose Aldo
    • UFC on FS1 - Yuri Alcantara v Urijah Faber
    • UFC on FS1 - 2 - Martin Kampmann v Carlos Condit
    • UFC 164 - Clay Guida v Chad Mendes
    • UFC on FS1 - 3 - Jussier da Silva v Joseph Benavidez
    • UFC 165 - Alexander Gustafsson v Jon Jones

    The reason I chose these fights, is because this is what is available at my current book. (SportsInteraction)
    Last edited by FreddDS; 07-21-13, 02:00 PM.
  • MD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-31-12
    • 9728

    #2
    I never thought I'd see "I know anything can happen in MMA, but..." applied to a ten-fight parlay.

    That said, don't expect it to cash.
    Comment
    • PunisherIND
      SBR MVP
      • 02-24-11
      • 4980

      #3
      if the objective is to be a silly fock, then yes, brilliant idea.
      Comment
      • Dwil125
        SBR MVP
        • 11-08-12
        • 2048

        #4
        Make two $50 parlays that will actually cash: Jones, Mendes, Vinny at about $50 tw 50. Then another similar one including jones again for your other $50
        Comment
        • Vaughany
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 03-07-10
          • 45563

          #5
          Originally posted by PunisherIND
          if the objective is to be a silly fock, then yes, brilliant idea.
          hahah
          Comment
          • FreddDS
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-29-10
            • 656

            #6
            Originally posted by MD
            I never thought I'd see "I know anything can happen in MMA, but..." applied to a ten-fight parlay.

            That said, don't expect it to cash.
            Any fight that stands out to you to ruin the parlay? Just curious why you don't think it with cash.

            Originally posted by PunisherIND
            if the objective is to be a silly fock, then yes, brilliant idea.
            Haha thanks. Like I said, small risk, big reward. I don't think it's out of this world silly.

            Originally posted by Dwil125
            Make two $50 parlays that will actually cash: Jones, Mendes, Vinny at about $50 tw 50. Then another similar one including jones again for your other $50
            That's not a bad idea either, however, payout is much smaller that way. Those are 2 to 1 odds, instead of the 10 to 1 I'm aiming for. But of course, greater chance of winning by taking your method. Thanks for the suggestion!
            Comment
            • Vaughany
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 03-07-10
              • 45563

              #7
              guy seems sharp
              Comment
              • MD
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-31-12
                • 9728

                #8
                Originally posted by FreddDS
                Any fight that stands out to you to ruin the parlay? Just curious why you don't think it with cash.
                I took math in highschool.
                Comment
                • mirinquads
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-22-13
                  • 3927

                  #9
                  If going just by the math then it has a small chance to cash.

                  Take out Condit and Rory, and that would substantially increase your chance in my opinion, from a capping perspective.

                  CANmouche is way too much juice as well.
                  Comment
                  • FreddDS
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-29-10
                    • 656

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Vaughany
                    guy seems sharp
                    This isn't my long term strategy where I will crush the books and make thousands. It's just a fun bet. Nothing more. I'm sure you've done some in the past. I've been following you for quite awhile btw, big fan of yours.

                    Originally posted by MD
                    I took math in highschool.
                    Gotcha haha

                    Originally posted by mirinquads
                    If going just by the math then it has a small chance to cash.

                    Take out Condit and Rory, and that would substantially increase your chance in my opinion, from a capping perspective.

                    CANmouche is way too much juice as well.
                    This is the kind of feedback I was looking for. Thanks mirin, appreciate your input! Funny enough, Rory and Carlos are 2 of the last ones I put in this bet. Those are 2 of the closest fights I see too. Also agree on the heavy juice for Carmouche, but confident she pulls through. Thanks again!
                    Comment
                    • Vaughany
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 03-07-10
                      • 45563

                      #11
                      I actually think it's got a great chance of hitting!
                      Comment
                      • MD
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-31-12
                        • 9728

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                        I actually think it's got a great chance of hitting!
                        Knowing you, I don't know if you're trolling or not. I sure hope so.
                        Comment
                        • Grabaka
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-19-11
                          • 3216

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Vaughany
                          I actually think it's got a great chance of hitting!
                          Yeah, after he stroked you pecker.....
                          Comment
                          • PunisherIND
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-24-11
                            • 4980

                            #14
                            i'd take out mighty mouse -625 and carmouche -900. turrible odds at sportsint.
                            Comment
                            • PunisherIND
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-24-11
                              • 4980

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Grabaka
                              Yeah, after he stroked you pecker.....
                              Comment
                              • FreddDS
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-29-10
                                • 656

                                #16
                                Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                i'd take out mighty mouse -625 and carmouche -900. turrible odds at sportsint.
                                Take them out because you don't think they'll win? or because of the terrible odds? Well aware odds aren't great at SportsInteraction. I'm really just making this a fun bet for the chance it hits, since I really believe these 10 guys/girl win, and not really the odds I'm getting it at. If that was the case, I wouldn't be making this bet at SIA.
                                Comment
                                • NunyaBidness
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-26-09
                                  • 9345

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by FreddDS
                                  Take them out because you don't think they'll win? or because of the terrible odds? Well aware odds aren't great at SportsInteraction. I'm really just making this a fun bet for the chance it hits, since I really believe these 10 guys/girl win, and not really the odds I'm getting it at. If that was the case, I wouldn't be making this bet at SIA.
                                  If only there were a way to make your own parlay combining all the best odds at various bookmakers.

                                  But, no, I've done the math, it's impossible. Cannot be done. Parlays, alas, are magic.
                                  Comment
                                  • FreddDS
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-29-10
                                    • 656

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                    If only there were a way to make your own parlay combining all the best odds at various bookmakers.

                                    But, no, I've done the math, it's impossible. Cannot be done. Parlays, alas, are magic.
                                    That would be pretty amazing, haha, too bad we can't.
                                    Comment
                                    • MD
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 01-31-12
                                      • 9728

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by FreddDS
                                      That would be pretty amazing, haha, too bad we can't.
                                      Comment
                                      • Rubber Guard
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-22-11
                                        • 1550

                                        #20
                                        Not that I think random long shot parlays are a good way of gambling. But for this sort of what the hell play, I think it has a pretty good chance of cashing. I don't expect it too, but for a 10 team parlay I feel it does. I went thru trying to pick out a couple of the most likely busters and I has a hard time. Kampmann and Ellenberger I suppose? Possibly the chick fight.
                                        Comment
                                        • Vaughany
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 03-07-10
                                          • 45563

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Grabaka
                                          Yeah, after he stroked you pecker.....
                                          ha I've got every single one of those play in different parlays myself apart from Carmouche so I can't really knock him for it (though mine are only 2 or 3 man parlays, not 10!)
                                          Comment
                                          • Grabaka
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-19-11
                                            • 3216

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Rubber Guard
                                            Not that I think random long shot parlays are a good way of gambling. But for this sort of what the hell play, I think it has a pretty good chance of cashing. I don't expect it too, but for a 10 team parlay I feel it does. I went thru trying to pick out a couple of the most likely busters and I has a hard time. Kampmann and Ellenberger I suppose? Possibly the chick fight.
                                            They all look good when you take the time to pick the best or safest fight but in the end one donkey always bust the parlay.
                                            I dont see why you have to make this a $100 parlay. I would go into round robin more with this ones. Make a few parlays but not 10 team. Just my opinion
                                            Comment
                                            • Grabaka
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-19-11
                                              • 3216

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Vaughany
                                              ha I've got every single one of those play in different parlays myself apart from Carmouche so I can't really knock him for it (though mine are only 2 or 3 man parlays, not 10!)
                                              Just buggin
                                              Comment
                                              • FreddDS
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-29-10
                                                • 656

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Rubber Guard
                                                Not that I think random long shot parlays are a good way of gambling. But for this sort of what the hell play, I think it has a pretty good chance of cashing. I don't expect it too, but for a 10 team parlay I feel it does. I went thru trying to pick out a couple of the most likely busters and I has a hard time. Kampmann and Ellenberger I suppose? Possibly the chick fight.
                                                My thoughts EXACTLY when making this parlay. Thanks for your input!

                                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                ha I've got every single one of those play in different parlays myself apart from Carmouche so I can't really knock him for it (though mine are only 2 or 3 man parlays, not 10!)
                                                That was my logic behind this parlay as well. I knew I would be betting these 10 fights come fight time in smaller parlays, like you, however, I figured, what the hell, may as well make a big parlay in advance anyways, and see if it hits. Worth the small risk.

                                                Originally posted by Grabaka
                                                They all look good when you take the time to pick the best or safest fight but in the end one donkey always bust the parlay.
                                                I dont see why you have to make this a $100 parlay. I would go into round robin more with this ones. Make a few parlays but not 10 team. Just my opinion
                                                I had round robin as an option, but the payout isn't nearly as good, especially when this is almost like a hail mary type bet. But your right, round robin could definitely still work.
                                                Comment
                                                • Wanna Bet On It?
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-17-11
                                                  • 1032

                                                  #25
                                                  TS outed himself when he boastfully claimed he was gonna crush the books for thousands yet admitted to betting at Sports Interaction.

                                                  That's analogous to fighting like Anderson Silva with your hands down. Unless you're the GOAT, this won't end well for you... and still won't even when you're the GOAT.

                                                  Winnerz rolled up in a 10-man parlay combined with a site hosting terrible lines, limited props and thick juice = the next SBR guru I'm tailing fo sho
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FreddDS
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-29-10
                                                    • 656

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?
                                                    TS outed himself when he boastfully claimed he was gonna crush the books for thousands yet admitted to betting at Sports Interaction.

                                                    That's analogous to fighting like Anderson Silva with your hands down. Unless you're the GOAT, this won't end well for you... and still won't even when you're the GOAT.

                                                    Winnerz rolled up in a 10-man parlay combined with a site hosting terrible lines, limited props and thick juice = the next SBR guru I'm tailing fo sho
                                                    Troll much? Not sure when I boastfully claimed I was gonna crush the books. I said the opposite. Maybe you didn't read properly? Never claimed to be the next SBR guru, and that's not what I'm aiming for. As I previously mentioned several times, this is a FUN bet. Thank you, come again.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • beermankirk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-17-09
                                                      • 1512

                                                      #27
                                                      take mighty mouse johnson fight over 4.5 rounds -225, instead of Johnson -450....
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mirinquads
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-22-13
                                                        • 3927

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Grabaka
                                                        They all look good when you take the time to pick the best or safest fight but in the end one donkey always bust the parlay.
                                                        I dont see why you have to make this a $100 parlay. I would go into round robin more with this ones. Make a few parlays but not 10 team. Just my opinion

                                                        Its a curse seriously.. I have had maybe.. 10 parlays busted with one mofugga when I first started out. And somehow its always the fight your most certain about.

                                                        This sport is rigged i tell you, they dont wanna pay out those big parlays, so they make the \*\*\*\*\*\* fighters lay down. WHY WOULD YOU EVER BET ON THIS SHIT

                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wanna Bet On It?
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-17-11
                                                          • 1032

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by FreddDS
                                                          Troll much? Not sure when I boastfully claimed I was gonna crush the books. I said the opposite. Maybe you didn't read properly? Never claimed to be the next SBR guru, and that's not what I'm aiming for. As I previously mentioned several times, this is a FUN bet. Thank you, come again.
                                                          Originally posted by FreddDS
                                                          This isn't my long term strategy where I will crush the books and make thousands.


                                                          I don't troll. I just call out stupidity as I see it. It might help more if you take it more constructively in the future.

                                                          I've never seen a single player who's serious about making money in sportsbetting play at Sports Interaction (particularly as their primary book, as you're suggesting).
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FreddDS
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-29-10
                                                            • 656

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?
                                                            [/B]I don't troll. I just call out stupidity as I see it. It might help more if you take it more constructively in the future.

                                                            I've never seen a single player who's serious about making money in sportsbetting play at Sports Interaction (particularly as their primary book, as you're suggesting).
                                                            I said this ISN'T my long term strategy. It's a simple one-time, fun bet, which we all have done once in our lives. I think your reading it wrong, and taking this far too serious, no offense.

                                                            I'm also not serious about making money at sportsbetting. I'm not here making thousands. Just little fun play money, here and there. I have a full time job, which I would never quit to do this professionally, especially at SIA, which I already the odds aren't the greatest. I'm in Canada also, limited in terms of book options.

                                                            Appreciate your input though.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • sideloaded
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 08-21-10
                                                              • 7561

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by FreddDS
                                                              Crazy idea? Or brilliant? haha

                                                              I'm thinking of making a $100 parlay on 10 fights, that add up to 10 to 1 odds, starting with next week's FOX show, leading up to the Jones-Gustafsson fight. I know anything can happen in MMA, but I feel pretty good with these fights. It's a small risk ($100) for a big reward ($1000).

                                                              Looking for thoughts here? Anything screams out as a potential parlay ruiner? Bold are my picks.

                                                              • UFC on FOX 8 - Jessica Andrade v Liz Carmouche
                                                              • UFC on FOX 8 - Jake Ellenberger v Rory MacDonald
                                                              • UFC on FOX 8 - John Moraga v Demetrious Johnson
                                                              • UFC 163 - Anthony Perosh v Vinny Magalhaes
                                                              • UFC 163 - Chan Sung Jung v Jose Aldo
                                                              • UFC on FS1 - Yuri Alcantara v Urijah Faber
                                                              • UFC on FS1 - 2 - Martin Kampmann v Carlos Condit
                                                              • UFC 164 - Clay Guida v Chad Mendes
                                                              • UFC on FS1 - 3 - Jussier da Silva v Joseph Benavidez
                                                              • UFC 165 - Alexander Gustafsson v Jon Jones

                                                              The reason I chose these fights, is because this is what is available at my current book. (SportsInteraction)
                                                              LMAO FIRST FIGHT IS GARBAGE. Liz Carmouche is not a better fighter than Andrade. F0cking retards set that line.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sideloaded
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-21-10
                                                                • 7561

                                                                #32
                                                                You think Carmouche is worth a bet at those ridiculous odds. FYI I capped Andrade at -130. She will probably win this fight.

                                                                How much footage have you watched of Andrade? You seem like a lazy f0ck throwing that garbage line into a parlay then declaring you see them all winning. REALLY? How much do you know about Andrade?
                                                                Last edited by sideloaded; 07-21-13, 06:01 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • NunyaBidness
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 07-26-09
                                                                  • 9345

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?
                                                                  I've never seen a single player who's serious about making money in sportsbetting play at Sports Interaction
                                                                  This is a really dumb statement.

                                                                  If you CAN have an account at SIA and you're not playing there, you're not very serious about making money.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Beelzebubzy
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 06-06-11
                                                                    • 6995

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                                    You think Carmouche is worth a bet at those ridiculous odds. FYI I capped Andrade at -130. She will probably win this fight.

                                                                    How much footage have you watched of Andrade? You seem like a lazy f0ck throwing that garbage line into a parlay then declaring you see them all winning. REALLY? How much do you know about Andrade?
                                                                    No way!! -130?! Lezvo has taken down tougher chicks. Her line is over inflated here because of the impressive showing versus Ronda

                                                                    i have a play at +450
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • sideloaded
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                                      • 7561

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Andrade is very young and very, very good for a woman. Only a wrestling wall n stall game plan would she lose. A stand up fight or grappling exchange Andrade comes out on top. I almost want to cap her at -200 but cant do it because of the horrific judging in mma.
                                                                      Comment
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