10 fights. 10 to 1 odds. Possible?

[sideloaded]

Perfect storm of Carmouche being very over rated. I mean she might be the most over rated fighter in mma. What is her best win????????????????????????????????????/????? Jan Finney???????????



Meeting Andrade, just like Mizuki criminally under valued fighter. That almost no one has even cared to watch her footage.


Carmouche opened at -705. Wrap your head around that. -705 for a woman who does not have a win over a fighter with a current winning record in mma, against a very young, hungry and skilled woman coming out of brasil. 9-2 record, and just gave an 8-1 fighter her second loss in her home country.

Jennifer Maia gets no respect and I made a great deal on her +175 against Frausto. Carmouche would get beat by Maia with Maia giving up 10 pounds. Plus Andrade is improving at a staggering rate.

Steam is going to come in heavy on Andrade come fight time. She will close near +200.

[FreddDS]

I think people are forgetting this is a FUN bet! This isn't a system, or a long-term money making strategy. I'm throwing up a hail mary just for fun, and seeing where it lands. No need to argue here, and start name calling. I'll have a good idea of how this parlay goes after this upcoming weekend, with the FOX show.

[sideloaded]

I think people are forgetting this is a FUN bet! This isn't a system, or a long-term money making strategy. I'm throwing up a hail mary just for fun, and seeing where it lands. No need to argue here, and start name calling. I'll have a good idea of how this parlay goes after this upcoming weekend, with the FOX show.

Uncle Siderhouse is telling you right now to bet Andrade +450 and arb out

[NunyaBidness]

I think people are forgetting this is a FUN bet! This isn't a system, or a long-term money making strategy. I'm throwing up a hail mary just for fun, and seeing where it lands. No need to argue here, and start name calling. I'll have a good idea of how this parlay goes after this upcoming weekend, with the FOX show.

I think I speak for all of the regulars in this forum when I say, no one here gives a shit about fun bets. We're here to make money. If we want to have fun we'll discuss cooking, or music, or grabaka's boobies, or chandler blades.

Good luck with your bet; but if you're posting here asking if we think its super-fun, I don't think we know how to answer it. If you want a critique of your bet, well, you got it.

[Beelzebubzy]

Carmouche gets love because of the Coenen fight.

[FreddDS]

Uncle Siderhouse is telling you right now to bet Andrade +450 and arb out

Definitely don't have any problems sending points your way if your right. But my feeling is Liz wins that fight, regardless of the ridiculous odds, which I agree, shouldn't be THAT favored in Carmouche's way.

I think I speak for all of the regulars in this forum when I say, no one here gives a shit about fun bets. We're here to make money. If we want to have fun we'll discuss cooking, or music, or grabaka's boobies, or chandler blades.

Good luck with your bet; but if you're posting here asking if we think its super-fun, I don't think we know how to answer it. If you want a critique of your bet, well, you got it.

Fair enough. I guess I should have said, it's a fun bet that I believe will win then, haha. I'm confident in it, and hope it cashes. Regardless if their is 10 fights in it. I guess we'll see soon enough if I'm right or wrong. Appreciate the feedback and criticism!

[sideloaded]

Carmouche gets love because of the Coenen fight.

lets be real. Only thing in that fight was the take downs. Marloes has trained at Golden Glory her entire life and had no idea what wrestling was. She admitted to only training wrestling a few years ago.

At that time Marloes would be a white belt wrestler that any 6th grade girl who attended wrestling camp for a weekend could take down.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'll drop a "fun" degen action parlay, but variance tends to be a b*tch...

For this particular play I wouldn't rule out possible busters as Ellenberger, Kampmann, Alcantara, Andrade...

I've got a couple decent parleez pending that I booked in advance of the Guillard fight (just going off gut), so will have to review tape before I decide to buy out of my position.

Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/27/13 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Melvin Guillard -110* vs Mac Danzig
				Pending	8/3/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -380* vs Phil Davis
				Win	7/6/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -300* vs Weidman/Silva goes 5 round distance
				Win	7/6/13 10:30pm Props Fighting 1337 Boetsch/Munoz starts round 2 -422* vs Fight won't start round 2
				Win	7/6/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1435 Siver/Swanson starts round 3 -195* vs Fight won't start round 3
				Win	7/6/13 8:00pm Props Fighting 1840 Barboza points handicap -3½ -300* vs Oliveira points handicap
				Win	7/6/13 7:30pm Props Fighting 1923 Melancon points handicap +3½ +100* vs Baczynski points handicap
				Win	7/6/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2009 Pierce wins inside distance +175* vs Not Pierce inside distance

Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/27/13 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Melvin Guillard -115* vs Mac Danzig
				Win	7/6/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -300* vs Weidman/Silva goes 5 round distance
				Win	7/6/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1211 Kennedy wins by 3 round decision +123* vs Not Kennedy by 3 round decision
				Win	7/6/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1437 Siver/Swanson starts round 2 -399* vs Fight won't start round 2
				Win	7/6/13 8:00pm Props Fighting 1809 Barboza wins inside distance -180* vs Not Barboza inside distance
				Win	7/6/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2009 Pierce wins inside distance +175* vs Not Pierce inside distance

[Noleafclover]

Only a wrestling wall n stall game plan would she lose.

That's exactly the type of strategy Carmouche typically employs and the type employed by Maia to beat Andrade, yes. Don't see how that doesn't worry you.

That said, @ OP, the line does seem off on that fight (carmouche should be closer to -300 imo), and Ellenberger/Kampmann could ruin your day as well.

[Das Jax]

Uncle Siderhouse is telling you right now to bet Andrade +450 and arb out

How do you see the fight going down? I'm playing it to start the second round as an anchor in several parlays, but since making the bet I've been having some doubts.

[MD]

Definitely don't have any problems sending points your way if your right. But my feeling is Liz wins that fight, regardless of the ridiculous odds, which I agree, shouldn't be THAT favored in Carmouche's way.


Fair enough. I guess I should have said, it's a fun bet that I believe will win then, haha. I'm confident in it, and hope it cashes. Regardless if their is 10 fights in it. I guess we'll see soon enough if I'm right or wrong. Appreciate the feedback and criticism!

No, you're absolutely, 100% wrong.

What percentage of the time do you think each of those fighters wins at?

[sideloaded]

That's exactly the type of strategy Carmouche typically employs and the type employed by Maia to beat Andrade, yes. Don't see how that doesn't worry you.

That said, @ OP, the line does seem off on that fight (carmouche should be closer to -300 imo), and Ellenberger/Kampmann could ruin your day as well.

So you think a fighters only chance is a 3 rnd wall n stall she should be -300 over an opponent with better skills in almost every area?


Why should that worry me? Andrade -130 sill gives Carmouche A LOT of credit to pull off that game plan.


this betting thing, is all about value. Right now Andrade has more value than any fight on the board. She still may lose. This isn't about picking winners for tapology.

[sideloaded]

How do you see the fight going down? I'm playing it to start the second round as an anchor in several parlays, but since making the bet I've been having some doubts.

If there is a finish it's andrade by sub. Carmouche has zero knock out power and will not submit Andrade.

[NunyaBidness]

Uncle Siderhouse is telling you right now to bet Andrade +450 and arb out

That puts him in a situation where he can lose both, however.

[sideloaded]

That puts him in a situation where he can lose both, however.

true, i stopped reading his parlay after the first pck

[Noleafclover]

I don't know that 45% is enough credit when it's a strategy Carmouche seems to employ almost every time out.

I don't say Andrade is a bad bet @ +450, this just strikes me as the major worry. I do wish you luck since I prolly will be off it or on the same side if the line improves somehow for Andrade.

[sideloaded]

I don't know that 45% is enough credit when it's a strategy Carmouche seems to employ almost every time out.

I don't say Andrade is a bad bet @ +450, this just strikes me as the major worry. I do wish you luck since I prolly will be off it or on the same side if the line improves somehow for Andrade.

what semi good fighter has that strategy worked on?

[mirinquads]

I think people are forgetting this is a FUN bet! This isn't a system, or a long-term money making strategy. I'm throwing up a hail mary just for fun, and seeing where it lands. No need to argue here, and start name calling. I'll have a good idea of how this parlay goes after this upcoming weekend, with the FOX show.

There is no fun allowed on this forum bro.

Its all pimply faced nerds or old people talking about fully kelly, half kelly their HUGE E-ROI and how much pussy their WORLDCLASS capping skills is going to get them in the future. And making fun of people who do other things then browse this forum of course.

[sideloaded]

its a known fact that power posting on sbr poster gets the girls wet. Especially if the word kelly is mentioned. I pulled my spreadsheet up once and the girls panties just fell off.

[Noleafclover]

what semi good fighter has that strategy worked on?

What semi-good fighter has she faced? Been trash or treasure.

[sideloaded]

What semi-good fighter has she faced? Been trash or treasure.

I have no idea what your point is. There is no proof you have posted that Carmouche is a better fighter at anything compared to Andrade. Andrade probably subs Marloes out and for sure would win rounds against Kaufman. Who completely shut out Carmouche.


Rousey is completely overrated. I've said it for years. So far a blue belt and a purple belt have taken her back less than one round into a fight. She is playing russian roulette with her career.

Imagine anothe fighter listed on the p4p list like rousey is getting routinely mounted or back mounted in title fights in the first round. That doesnt make Carmouche a good fighter.

[PaperTrail07]

whatever you do....don't do this

[PaperTrail07]

Carmouche is dogshit...saw her fight in strikeforce...

[PaperTrail07]

lol...YOU TOO...

its a known fact that power posting on sbr poster gets the girls wet. Especially if the word kelly is mentioned. I pulled my spreadsheet up once and the girls panties just fell off.

[Thor4140]

Okay Sider i don't usually bet fighters blind but im not that impress with Carmouche either. Never saw Andrade fight so im gonna trust u on this one. I realize i am getting four to one so if i lose i want to at least be in the fight and not get blown out. Oh and if u sucked me into one of those three round fights where i easily win but to much money was on our fighter im gonna be ticked da fuk off. Vegas doesn't like to pay anything out let alone 4 to 1 odds and if u have the rest of these knuckleheads following along we will then need a sub or a knockout.

[sideloaded]

Okay Sider i don't usually bet fighters blind but im not that impress with Carmouche either. Never saw Andrade fight so im gonna trust u on this one. I realize i am getting four to one so if i lose i want to at least be in the fight and not get blown out. Oh and if u sucked me into one of those three round fights where i easily win but to much money was on our fighter im gonna be ticked da fuk off. Vegas doesn't like to pay anything out let alone 4 to 1 odds and if u have the rest of these knuckleheads following along we will then need a sub or a knockout.

My biggest play on this card will be Andrade by dec at +1300, looking to load up later on Kedzie over/under

[MD]

My biggest play on this card will be Andrade by dec at +1300, looking to load up later on Kedzie over/under

Best play here is Andrade +3.5 +240 in my opinion. Should cash 65+% of the time I think.

[PaperTrail07]

Sat 7/27	24425	M. Danzig		-105
2:00PM (PST)	24426	M. Guillard		-115

thoughts here....tempted to go Guliiard ? Danzig outsized here?

[sideloaded]

Best play here is Andrade +2.5 +240 in my opinion. Should cash 65+% of the time I think.

got +3.5 is it 2.5 now?

[goodfellas433]

Best play here is Andrade +2.5 +240 in my opinion. Should cash 65+% of the time I think.

+3.5 on 5d?

[goodfellas433]

Lol

[MD]

got +3.5 is it 2.5 now?

Typo, sorry. +3.5.

[Hannibal]

moving lines bro
no more +240

[sideloaded]

moving lines bro
no more +240

it hasnt been +240 for days

[MD]

^ Indeed. Was +200 when I posted.