homecrowd advantage!

**hougigo** · 06-09-13, 12:05 AM

When I first started, I thought nothing about it.... stupid me.

Home crowd and homefield are huge factors.
I cashed in on a fight today of a Italian homer fighting a visiting Brit (Boxing, Di Rocco vs Daws)
Daws beat, cut and dropped Di Rocco, but still came away with a UD.

IMO, always consider homefield

**MonkeyMoney** · 06-09-13, 12:34 AM

exactly!! i totally didnt mention decision victories for the home fighters..

looks so rigged its funny

**hougigo** · 06-09-13, 01:02 AM

In fights that're close on paper.... if it's in somebodies backyard, that should settle over who to pick

**Vaughany** · 06-09-13, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

In fights that're close on paper.... if it's in somebodies backyard, that should settle over who to pick

Not necessarily. Lentz/Dias was close on paper, but Lentz was clearly the right pick

**MonkeyMoney** · 06-09-13, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Not necessarily. Lentz/Dias was close on paper, but Lentz was clearly the right pick

agree.. but lentz dominated

**Vaughany** · 06-09-13, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyMoney

agree.. but lentz dominated

Ye but thts hindsight. My response was to houg saying if its close on paper take the brazilian.

MD · 06-09-13, 02:30 PM

Why do people think the bookies haven't figured this out and factored it into the lines by now?

Better question: if people really do think the bookies haven't figured this out by now, why are they mentioning it on a public gambling forum?

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 03:13 PM

Squash matches are squash matches anywhere. Nationality has nothing to do with it.

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 06-09-13, 03:15 PM

its has to be factored in otherwise how are some of these relatively unproven in the UFC fighters opening at like 3 and 4-1 favorites...then again, sarafian, e silva and rony jason fought like they were 10-1 favorites but still...im sure the books are well aware of all of this...

**Vaughany** · 06-09-13, 03:46 PM

yeah a lot of easy match ups for them.

MD · 06-09-13, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Squash matches are squash matches anywhere. Nationality has nothing to do with it.

You actually think that the lines aren't inflated because it's in Brazil? Like, really?

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by MD

You actually think that the lines aren't inflated because it's in Brazil? Like, really?

Yup. I think the lines are set based on judges, referees, and match-making and not the nationality of fighters.

Why do you think it has to be factored into the line?

There's really no evidence of hometown advantage in MMA. Erick Silva is wiping the floor with High no matter what continent that fight takes place.

MD · 06-09-13, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Yup. I think the lines are set based on judges, referees, and match-making and not the nationality of fighters.

Why do you think it has to be factored into the line?

There's really no evidence of hometown advantage in MMA. Erick Silva is wiping the floor with High no matter what continent that fight takes place.

Because Brazilians have an abnormally high win-rate in Brazil. Because the public thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks that the public thinks that Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil.

**MonkeyMoney** · 06-09-13, 05:45 PM

lol hobbesITD youre totally wrong about not having an advantage..

-home fighters dont have to travel + be hassled by traveling and getting situated in some cases to a new time zone
-fighting in enemy territory where the crowd chants loudly "youre gonna die"
-also home fighters such as brazilians have higher pressure on their shoulders which almost always results in them bringing their A game

**Thor4140** · 06-09-13, 07:21 PM

All these guys touting this Brazilian homefield advantage crap must love risking 4 and 5 to 1 on these fights. I love to see all their betting stubs jumping at this great opportunities.

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by MD

Because Brazilians have an abnormally high win-rate in Brazil. Because the public thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks that the public thinks that Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil.

How many Brazilians fought last night? 16? No shit they won a lot.

Brazilians win a lot on Brazil cards because:

A) Lots of Brazilians are fighting on them
B) The Brazilian vs Foreigner fights are typically squash matches

If the same lineup fought in Winnipeg next week the win percentages would be the same.

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyMoney

lol hobbesITD youre totally wrong about not having an advantage..

-home fighters dont have to travel + be hassled by traveling and getting situated in some cases to a new time zone
-fighting in enemy territory where the crowd chants loudly "youre gonna die"
-also home fighters such as brazilians have higher pressure on their shoulders which almost always results in them bringing their A game

Surely these 'hometown advantages' should carry over to other countries, then. You don't see Japan tearing it up when the UFC goes to Saitama.

**MonkeyMoney** · 06-09-13, 10:23 PM

japanese mma is not on the same level as brazil's and even usa's

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyMoney

japanese mma is not on the same level as brazil's and even usa's

You said hometown fighters get an advantage due to jet lag. Can't get much further away than Japan for US based fighters.

MD · 06-09-13, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

How many Brazilians fought last night? 16? No shit they won a lot.

Brazilians win a lot on Brazil cards because:

A) Lots of Brazilians are fighting on them
B) The Brazilian vs Foreigner fights are typically squash matches

If the same lineup fought in Winnipeg next week the win percentages would be the same.

Not necessarily. If the 51 fights involving Brazilians in Brazil since the UFC's return to Brazil a few years ago were to happen in the US instead, I can almost guarantee you that the win percentage would be lower. I say that with at least a 95% certainty.

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Surely these 'hometown advantages' should carry over to other countries, then. You don't see Japan tearing it up when the UFC goes to Saitama.

...Uhhhhh, do you see how terribly Japanese fighters do when they go to the UFC? It's almost comical how much the Japs under-perform when they get to the USA. There are some who obviously had just never fought that level of talent, but look at a guy like Hioki. His skills deteriorated significantly when he came to the UFC.

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 10:50 PM

So what is the advantage that Brazilians get by fighting in Brazil that Japanese fighters don't get in Japan and Americans don't get in America? 'Almost guarantees' aren't very scientific.

MD · 06-09-13, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

So what is the advantage that Brazilians get by fighting in Brazil that Japanese fighters don't get in Japan and Americans don't get in America? 'Almost guarantees' aren't very scientific.

That MonkeyMoney guy listed a couple of good reasons (not all good, though). Also, if you want scientific, we're having a discussion about whether or not the fact that the fight is in Brazil is factored into the lines, in spite of the fact that the guy who sets the lines has said that the fact that the fights are in Brazil is a factor in the fights and is something he considers when setting the lines. Go science!

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 11:12 PM

We're obviously talking about whether or not Brazilians have a hometown advantage when fighting in Brazil.

If they do, what is it? And why don't other nationalities have this advantage?

MD · 06-09-13, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

We're obviously talking about whether or not Brazilians have a hometown advantage when fighting in Brazil.

If they do, what is it? And why don't other nationalities have this advantage?

No, we're talking about whether or not the lines are inflated as a result of the fight being in Brazil.

Originally posted by MD

You actually think that the lines aren't inflated because it's in Brazil? Like, really?

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Yup. I think the lines are set based on judges, referees, and match-making and not the nationality of fighters.

Why do you think it has to be factored into the line?

There's really no evidence of hometown advantage in MMA. Erick Silva is wiping the floor with High no matter what continent that fight takes place.

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by MD

No, we're talking about whether or not the lines are inflated as a result of the fight being in Brazil.

You should refresh your page, fella. There have been ten posts since that one.

Here, I got the most relevant one:

If they do, what is it? And why don't other nationalities have this advantage?

MD · 06-09-13, 11:35 PM

The entire discussion has been in regards to line inflation. Even your question of whether or not Brazilians have an edge in Brazil started with...

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Why do you think it has to be factored into the line?

Originally posted by MD

Because Brazilians have an abnormally high win-rate in Brazil. Because the public thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil. Because Kalikas thinks that the public thinks that Brazilians are at an advantage in Brazil.

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 11:42 PM

Half an hour ago you posted this. Must have forgot about it.

Originally posted by MD

Not necessarily. If the 51 fights involving Brazilians in Brazil since the UFC's return to Brazil a few years ago were to happen in the US instead, I can almost guarantee you that the win percentage would be lower. I say that with at least a 95% certainty.

So what is this advantage you're 95% almost maybe sure of?

MD · 06-09-13, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Half an hour ago you posted this. Must have forgot about it.

So what is this advantage you're 95% almost maybe sure of?

I didn't forget it. It, again, pertains to the point I originally brought up.

You seem to be diverting the argument pretty hard bro. You changing your position on whether or not the fact that the fight is in Brazil is factored into the lines?

**hobbesITD** · 06-09-13, 11:46 PM

Why quote me if you aren't going to address what I wrote?

My position is that nationalities don't affect fight outcomes. I'd be surprised if Kalikas weighed them but ultimately wouldn't care. Whether or not hometown advantage is real is more interesting and the title of the thread.

**MonkeyMoney** · 06-09-13, 11:48 PM

lol an argument about an argument

i think why the brazilians have a significant home advantage compared to japanese fighters is simple.. Brazilian fighters are on another level then japanese fighters and they are on par if not above american mma talent imo

MD · 06-09-13, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Why quote me if you aren't going to address what I wrote?

My position is that nationalities don't affect fight outcomes. I'd be surprised if Kalikas used it but ultimately wouldn't care. Whether or not hometown advantage is real is more interesting and the title of the thread.

I am addressing what you wrote, but I was avoiding your argument because you were avoiding mine. If you don't wish to address it any further, that is fine.

To answer your question, it's simple, really. What is the likelihood that of 51 fights with Brazilian fighters in Brazil, not a single one of the results would have changed due to travelling (for both the fighters and their coaches), shady judging, home town morale boosts, loss of morale for the opposing fighters, or a magnitude of other factors? How likely is it that all 51 fights would have ended with the same fighters winning (excluding other variance factors)? Incredibly unlikely, in my estimation. I'm being conservative by saying 95%.

**hobbesITD** · 06-10-13, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by MD

I am addressing what you wrote, but I was avoiding your argument because you were avoiding mine. If you don't wish to address it any further, that is fine.

To answer your question, it's simple, really. What is the likelihood that of 51 fights with Brazilian fighters in Brazil, not a single one of the results would have changed due to travelling (for both the fighters and their coaches), shady judging, home town morale boosts, loss of morale for the opposing fighters, or a magnitude of other factors? How likely is it that all 51 fights would have ended with the same fighters winning (excluding non-Brazil variance factors)? Incredibly unlikely, in my estimation. I'm being conservative by saying 95%.

Wasn't trying to avoid your question as much as I wasn't interested in it. Do you have the Kalikas quote, by the way? I can't find it.

The exact outcomes are so unlikely to be impossible. I'm saying that fighters who win 80% of the time in Brazil would win 80% of the time in Montreal. Bad judging, for the most part, has less to do with hometown bias and way more to do with shady managers and shady/incompetent judges. Morale is an interesting theory, but shouldn't it apply to other nationals?

MD · 06-10-13, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Wasn't trying to avoid your question as much as I wasn't interested in it. Do you have the Kalikas quote, by the way? I can't find it.

The exact outcomes are so unlikely to be impossible. I'm saying that fighters who win 80% of the time in Brazil would win 80% of the time in Montreal. Bad judging, for the most part, has less to do with hometown bias and way more to do with shady managers and shady/incompetent judges. Morale is an interesting theory, but shouldn't it apply to other nationals?

He's said it more than once on his podcast.

I disagree. I think that if the average win rate for these fighters was 80% outside of Brazil, it would be at least slightly higher in Brazil.

**Vaughany** · 06-10-13, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Wasn't trying to avoid your question as much as I wasn't interested in it. Do you have the Kalikas quote, by the way? I can't find it.

The exact outcomes are so unlikely to be impossible. I'm saying that fighters who win 80% of the time in Brazil would win 80% of the time in Montreal. Bad judging, for the most part, has less to do with hometown bias and way more to do with shady managers and shady/incompetent judges. Morale is an interesting theory, but shouldn't it apply to other nationals?

Maybe, but the atmosphere in a Brazilian stadium is different to what you'd experience in Japan for example.