+165 for Shileds is so tempting. Woodley being over valued after that big KO of Hieron, but Shields back down at 170 = terrible cardio. Curious to see who comes out on top when they start to grapple. May just keep this open on live betting and if Shileds does get the early take downs have a bet ready to go, otherwise no play
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100 on shields itd at +780
825 to win 100 on any other result vs shields by submissionComment -
Bad bet. This is not a good 'arb'. This isn't even an arb by strict definition.
In the Sherdog thread, Endless Critic mentioned an actual arb of: +780 on Shields ITD coupled to Not Shields by Sub @ -750. $30 freeroll if Shields gets the sub, $880 cash if Shields gets the KO, no loss for any other result. The Shields sub line has since changed...
In your case you lose $45 if Shields gets the sub and break even for any other result than a Shields finish. Shields doesn't TKO guys. He's a pitter-patter stand up and GnP puncher to set up subs or score points. You're more likely to get a T/KO injury or DQ win than a KO IMO.
I would not bother tying my money up at current prices.Comment -
Hmmm... You are correct, not my bestplay if he actually gets the sub. I was looking at it as my money back for almost all likely outcomes with a free long shot on him knocking him out or viscous ground and pound. But with those odds you are right with the sub.Comment -
Wouldnt be surprised if Shields takes his back and subs him! Could even omplata him and finish what Semtex started!Comment -
Lol oh well, already had a 100 on him at +175...so we will see.Comment -
I don't get the shields love...
Are you guys expecting him to be the better wrestler??
Shields pretty much has one parh to victory. Get on top
How is he going to do that against a superior wrestler?Comment -
Stronger, more athletic, way better wrestling pedigree, more sucessful with his takedowns, and I've never seen him on his back.
Woodley made the comment that he would be in "wrestling shape" for this fight, which he distinguished as being far different from "regular fighting shape". He's drilling his wrestling hard, the only place that shields could attack him. I have 2 worries..first is that shields pushes his against the fence and sneaks around to his back. And second is that somehow shields gimp like striking will win on the cards if woodley is too inactiveComment -
he's blacker so better for sureComment -
One word. Kongo.Comment -
boböööö sappööuuuComment -
Winner.
If he qualifies as an actual fighter lolComment -
ahahaha "...the most trusted source of MMA betting knowledge: THE MMA ODDSCAST" !!!
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Shields will most likely out grapple woodley, woodley isn't really the best grappler his strengths are explosiveness and speed. I doubt he'll try to grapple with shields probably stay on the outside and use his speed to beat Shields to the punch then use counter wrestling to avoid getting into clinches and being swept to the ground. Woodley has trouble with bigger guys when it comes to grappling he could win by being the smarter fighter picking his shots and avoiding the grappling.Comment -
yeah, and after that Hieron KO he'll think he's a K1 level striker now like Koscheck and want to stand and bang!Comment -
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I don't understand this.. the first bet was a good value play that will occasionally hit and the second ensures that when it does it is completely useless and costs you money....
Shields is bigger, more experienced, proven against better competition, better jiu jitsu etc. Gotta look at both sides.Comment -
As sad as it sounds, wouldn't be surprised if Shields out-struck him.Comment -
Shields is a high output striker. He took two rounds from GSP doing that, he beat Akiyama doing that, and he can do the same to Woodley.Comment -
As long as they show plenty of shots of that ebony goddess, Mrs Woodley, then we all win Saturday.Comment -
[QUOTE=Wilverine;18910272]I don't understand this.. the first bet was a good value play that will occasionally hit and the second ensures that when it does it is completely useless and costs you money....
The line moved..but the intent as is was a longshot profit for tko/Ko....all other outcomes break even, with a sub costing me 45 bucks. But as mentioned before if I hit it before the line moved it would have been a risk free play with a big payout if shields got the tko/Ko....Comment -
I saw the line when it was a risk free play... Then when I actually committed to it later I saw that I would take a small hit with the new odds if he gets the sub...but I said f it and didn't mind the 45 risk for a long shot if he tkos him it'd. You can consider it a goof since its not risk free, but I still don't even mind it as is.Comment -
But the way wilverine stated it is still inaccurateComment -
Correct me where I'm wrong:
Shields by sub pays 880 total, lose the 825.
Shields by decision pays 925 total losing the 100 is even.
Woodley by anything pays 925, losing the 100 is even.
Shields by tko/Ko pays 980 total
Am I screwing up somewhere?Comment -
On the play you guys hate:
100 on shields itd +780
And 825 to win 100 on any other result vs shields by sub.Comment -
Nm figured out the shields by sub that I was screwing up onComment -
-45 if shields wins by sub
+880 if he wins it'd not by sub
Break even with any other result.
Wtf..its called gambling. Shit guys.Comment
