The Quest to a 71%+ Win Rate in MMA Betting

**Grabaka** · 04-25-13, 12:03 AM

We like $$$$$ not %%%%%!!!!
Arriba el $$$$$!

**bogbat** · 04-25-13, 12:06 AM

Since you are not posting lines, and your plays are extremely juicy, you should state that it is a 71% pick rate instead of win rate.

Here are the current lines for your picks on 5dimes

JonJones -1100
Sara McMann -750
Not Magalhaes in Rd 1 -1580

**Sacrelicious** · 04-25-13, 12:08 AM

Dude lines here don't matter, its not relevant, if you do not understand why it is not relevant, read recent threads.

**bogbat** · 04-25-13, 12:42 AM

I suspected a troll but you never know around here. lol

**gabe** · 04-25-13, 02:30 AM

I thought the 71% meant this is a dig at me but it can't be since a great % of my wins have been dogs and small favs.

If it is meant to be a dig at me, this fat boy really is mentally ill.

**v1y** · 04-25-13, 06:15 AM

if you're at 71% betting 10-1 favorites it means you're a shitty capper.

MD · 04-25-13, 06:18 AM

Gabe only counts his recommended plays though, bro. If that's all we're going by, I'm far more successful than Gabe. Every single play that I've put in my status message or started a thread about has cashed. Every single one. Bendo over Nate -155, Curran as a dog against Pitbull, Curran as a favourite against Shamhalaev, Cain at close to +200 against JDS, Machida over Henderson -200, and more. That's a 100% win-rate, Gaberz.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 04:20 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Okay, I'm going to start this thread in order to attempt to get at least a 71% win rate in documented MMA plays.

First off, my plays for this weekend are:

Jon Jones,
Sara McMann,

and lastly,

Not Magalhaes in Rd 1.

I will not include lines here, because they are not relevant to the nature of this challenge.

But I will keep the challenge going over the next several months, possibly the next year, to show that it is entirely possible, with a great deal of hard work and careful handicapping, to achieve a 71%+ success rate in MMA betting.

Okay, forgot to update this after the show, but I did in fact go 3-0 with my recommended plays. So far, I'm successfully out-capping Gabe, as he only hits 71% and I've hit 100%, but the sample size is still too small to really prove anything.

There is no UFC for a couple weeks, so I'm going to add on a boxing play:

Mayweather -700

**gabe** · 05-01-13, 05:14 AM

Originally posted by MD

Gabe only counts his recommended plays though, bro. If that's all we're going by, I'm far more successful than Gabe. Every single play that I've put in my status message or started a thread about has cashed. Every single one. Bendo over Nate -155, Curran as a dog against Pitbull, Curran as a favourite against Shamhalaev, Cain at close to +200 against JDS, Machida over Henderson -200, and more. That's a 100% win-rate, Gaberz.

i wouldn't exactly recommend alan belcher against bisping to people but it counts as one of my losses now

i wasn't on elkins and didn't bother taking a shot in the dark with him so i can't count him as a loss. idiots believing i thought he was a lock vs mendes are just that; idiots.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 09:43 AM

I'm also going to add on:

Wladimir Klitschko -3500

Very good chance I actually am still 100% after this weekend, which is significantly better then Gabe's 71%, a whole 29% better, specifically.

**Vaughany** · 05-01-13, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by gabe

i wouldn't exactly recommend alan belcher against bisping to people but it counts as one of my losses now

i wasn't on elkins and didn't bother taking a shot in the dark with him so i can't count him as a loss. idiots believing i thought he was a lock vs mendes are just that; idiots.

yet you said were putting a "flier" on him on twitter?! Or is "a shot in the dark" not quite a flier?!

**Grabaka** · 05-01-13, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Mayweather -700

Hitting 71% with fandangos and mayweather aint that impressive Chef.

Gonna have to fade the Chef. Ill be on Fantasma Guerrero, the decision and the draw.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Hitting 71% with fandangos and mayweather aint that impressive Chef.

Gonna have to fade the Chef. Ill be on Fantasma Guerrero, the decision and the draw.

Definitely not trying to be impressive here.

Though I will stand by this: Fandango opening at -350 was the single best wager I have ever seen.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 05-01-13, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yet you said were putting a "flier" on him on twitter?! Or is "a shot in the dark" not quite a flier?!

Fliers need light to fly. If it's a flier but it's a shot in the dark then it doesn't count because it was never flown. Pfft, every bettor knows that!

**Vaughany** · 05-01-13, 01:21 PM

I am so dumb, real dumb!

**Grabaka** · 05-01-13, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Definitely not trying to be impressive here.

Though I will stand by this: Fandango opening at -350 was the single best wager I have ever seen.

Im joking amigo. It may have been but your image is getting tarnished. That Fandango guy is like one of those guys who your girl might like and you say coooome on...the guy has no huevos.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Im joking amigo. It may have been but your image is getting tarnished. That Fandango guy is like one of those guys who your girl might like and you say coooome on...the guy has no huevos.

While I agree with the sentiment of your post, I am going to have to politely disagree.

He is actually several orders of magnitude worse then what you describe, no huevos is just the tip of the iceberg for how lame this guy is.

MD · 05-01-13, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Hitting 71% with fandangos and mayweather aint that impressive Chef.

Gonna have to fade the Chef. Ill be on Fantasma Guerrero, the decision and the draw.

You're betting on Guerrero?

**Grabaka** · 05-01-13, 02:03 PM

I might bro. But fight goes distance already played.

**gabe** · 05-01-13, 04:18 PM

i tweeted that i liked fliers (i assume flier means "shot in the dark gamble") on elkins and mir (also uyenoyama and hugo viana but didnt mention those in the tweet) but i did not end up placing a cent on either of the 4 fighters i thought were worth a flier. even if i did bet on them, why would those count towards my handicapping record? my record reflects wagers i capped and liked the odds that they would cash. it'd be silly to add every longshot or impulse bet i make to my capping record. i think it's completely ridiculous that i have to explain this. this is why i call you a dumb child.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-01-13, 04:24 PM

But if they did hit they woul be on your record

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by gabe

i tweeted that i liked fliers (i assume flier means "shot in the dark gamble") on elkins and mir (also uyenoyama and hugo viana but didnt mention those in the tweet) but i did not end up placing a cent on either of the 4 fighters i thought were worth a flier. even if i did bet on them, why would those count towards my handicapping record? my record reflects wagers i capped and liked the odds that they would cash. it'd be silly to add every longshot or impulse bet i make to my capping record. i think it's completely ridiculous that i have to explain this. this is why i call you a dumb child.

I'm already 100 percent in my capping, that is a lot better then 71%.

**gabe** · 05-01-13, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

But if they did hit they woul be on your record

no, they wouldn't. many plays have hit that are not on my record. most recently; rustam khabilov, osp, jorge masvidal, and anthony njokuani.

**gabe** · 05-01-13, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

I'm already 100 percent in my capping, that is a lot better then 71%.

props, you're the man.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-01-13, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by gabe

props, you're the man.

I know!

MD · 05-01-13, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by gabe

i tweeted that i liked fliers (i assume flier means "shot in the dark gamble") on elkins and mir (also uyenoyama and hugo viana but didnt mention those in the tweet) but i did not end up placing a cent on either of the 4 fighters i thought were worth a flier. even if i did bet on them, why would those count towards my handicapping record? my record reflects wagers i capped and liked the odds that they would cash. it'd be silly to add every longshot or impulse bet i make to my capping record. i think it's completely ridiculous that i have to explain this. this is why i call you a dumb child.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-29-13, 08:03 PM

Man, I can't believe I have not been up to speed on this thread.

In any case, I'm currently capping 100% with my recommended plays, still doing much better then 71%.

My next play:

Erick Silva/Jason High NOT a draw -23000.

MD · 05-29-13, 08:13 PM

Flier on Elkins.

**Sato** · 06-01-13, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Man, I can't believe I have not been up to speed on this thread.

My next play:

Erick Silva/Jason High NOT a draw -23000.

Come on pal, dont do this to me!

**ArchieUD** · 06-01-13, 04:53 PM

Heh, look for this fight to play out like Penn vs Fitch!

**Sacrelicious** · 06-01-13, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ArchieUD

Heh, look for this fight to play out like Penn vs Fitch!

Unreal. You are a fockin idiot, I have a 71% plus record,

I am the 7th best capper here next to gabe and his 5 ghost accounts.

Flier on Elkins$

MD · 06-01-13, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Unreal. You are a fockin idiot, I have a 71% plus record,

I am the 7th best capper here next to gabe and his 5 ghost accounts.

Flier on Elkins$

I think I had my account limited on 5D or something. I made a flier on Mark Hunt at around +350 as I saw value, put $100 on him, then when Mark Hunt lost, they didn't refund me. I contacted support and explained to them that it was a flier, not a bet, but they still took my money. Do I have any sort of legal ground here? I'm thinking I should sue them.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-01-13, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by MD

I think I had my account limited on 5D or something. I made a flier on Mark Hunt at around +350 as I saw value, put $100 on him, then when Mark Hunt lost, they didn't refund me. I contacted support and explained to them that it was a flier, not a bet, but they still took my money. Do I have any sort of legal ground here? I'm thinking I should sue them.

Unreal, you are also a penetrating idiot, I can not take this any more, I am leaving SBR forever, I hate you all.

**pouyasophy** · 06-02-13, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Unreal, you are also a penetrating idiot, I can not take this any more, I am leaving SBR forever, I hate you all.

please don't tease us