I cap Pat Curran at -900

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • MD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-31-12
    • 9728

    #1
    I cap Pat Curran at -900
    Completely serious. Come at me.

    Pat Curran is a vastly superior technical striker with elite defence, some of the best striking defence in MMA. He's also the most well-rounded guy in that division, has very solid wrestling, and a fantastic BJJ game.

    What you get in Shamhalaev is a guy with an incredible combination of speed and knockout power. He's one of the best natural knockout artists below 185. Unfortunately, when you take away his speed, he doesn't have much else. He has very questionable cardio and weak takedown defence. He also seems to lack a ground game to speak of. His technique on the feet is lacking, especially for someone who is supposedly a "Muay Thai world champion", and he's always searching for the big right hand, gradually degenerating into throwing it without set-up the longer the fight goes. Curran has an extreme reach edge, a big height edge, a big technical striking edge, and he is so unbelievably disciplined in his approach that there's never a risk of it turning into an all-out brawl. Outside of his ability to avoid the big knockout shot with his elusive movement, he also has a great chin. He won't have any trouble getting the fight to the floor or easily out-striking Shamhalaev on the feet in the later rounds, and he's technical and intelligent enough to avoid the early danger. He's too slick and too disciplined to fall for Shamhalaev's speed-based counter shots, and once you get past that, there isn't much left to his game. Hope you liked the breakdown Hannibro, figured I'd write one for once instead of just posting my play.

    Lock it up cousins. Curran, large, all day.
  • NunyaBidness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-26-09
    • 9345

    #2
    Originally posted by MD
    Completely serious. Come at me.
    Cool. If you've maxed it at every book, I'll happily give you as much Curran you want at -300.
    Comment
    • MD
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-31-12
      • 9728

      #3
      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
      Cool. If you've maxed it at every book, I'll happily give you as much Curran you want at -300.
      I've only maxed it at Pinny and 5D, but I've done it numerous times over the last couple of days. Got down about as much money as I'm comfortable betting on one fight. Thanks anyway though bro. <3
      Comment
      • BIGDAY
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 02-17-10
        • 48245

        #4
        I have Curran. And the OV 3.5 rds -110
        Comment
        • The iron sheik
          SBR MVP
          • 01-17-13
          • 1105

          #5
          Not as confident as you are, but on Curran aswell. Good luck broseph
          Comment
          • eligibletackle
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-20-11
            • 149

            #6
            at -900, I will fade anybody facing a ruskie in bellator - Come at me.
            Comment
            • Imsmarterthanu
              SBR MVP
              • 05-02-12
              • 1878

              #7
              Now you're just becoming an annoying troll
              Comment
              • NunyaBidness
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-26-09
                • 9345

                #8
                Is this the same Curran who was getting chewed up by a washed up Marlon Sandro for 9 minutes?
                Comment
                • Rubber Guard
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-22-11
                  • 1550

                  #9
                  MD would jig the shit out of Curran if he could.
                  Comment
                  • MD
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-31-12
                    • 9728

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu
                    Now you're just becoming an annoying troll
                    Whether you think I'm wrong or not, I'm obviously not trolling. I believe what I'm saying, even if you think it's retarded.

                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                    Is this the same Curran who was getting chewed up by a washed up Marlon Sandro for 9 minutes?
                    There are a lot of things wrong with this, but I'll start with the fact that Curran admitted to being too timid after that fight and has been more aggressive since, and also that Sandro wasn't washed up at the time, certainly not to the degree that he is now. And this is a five-round fight.

                    Certainly a chance that I'm wrong and Curran loses (at least 10%, evidently), but I'm fairly confident, so I'm putting my magnificent balls out there, ready to absorb all of the flack if Curran gets KO'd.
                    Comment
                    • hobbesITD
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 01-06-13
                      • 284

                      #11
                      Comment
                      • Ron_Paul_2012
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-31-13
                        • 3953

                        #12
                        Originally posted by MD
                        Completely serious. Come at me.

                        Pat Curran is a vastly superior technical striker with elite defence, some of the best striking defence in MMA. He's also the most well-rounded guy in that division, has very solid wrestling, and a fantastic BJJ game.

                        What you get in Shamhalaev is a guy with an incredible combination of speed and knockout power. He's one of the best natural knockout artists below 185. Unfortunately, when you take away his speed, he doesn't have much else. He has very questionable cardio and weak takedown defence. He also seems to lack a ground game to speak of. His technique on the feet is lacking, especially for someone who is supposedly a "Muay Thai world champion", and he's always searching for the big right hand, gradually degenerating into throwing it without set-up the longer the fight goes. Curran has an extreme reach edge, a big height edge, a big technical striking edge, and he is so unbelievably disciplined in his approach that there's never a risk of it turning into an all-out brawl. Outside of his ability to avoid the big knockout shot with his elusive movement, he also has a great chin. He won't have any trouble getting the fight to the floor or easily out-striking Shamhalaev on the feet in the later rounds, and he's technical and intelligent enough to avoid the early danger. He's too slick and too disciplined to fall for Shamhalaev's speed-based counter shots, and once you get past that, there isn't much left to his game. Hope you liked the breakdown Hannibro, figured I'd write one for once instead of just posting my play.

                        Lock it up cousins. Curran, large, all day.
                        Well looks like Mentally Diseased put his foot in it once again. %50 of bank roll on Hawn. %20 On Hawn/Cooper parlay. %05 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo parlay. %01 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo/Sham parlay. That's how it's done chaps.
                        Comment
                        • MD
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-31-12
                          • 9728

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                          Well looks like Mentally Diseased put his foot in it once again. %50 of bank roll on Hawn. %20 On Hawn/Cooper parlay. %05 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo parlay. %01 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo/Sham parlay. That's how it's done chaps.
                          And people think I'm​ a troll?
                          Comment
                          • Ron_Paul_2012
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-31-13
                            • 3953

                            #14
                            Hawn 2 round KO! Cha Ching!!
                            Comment
                            • Nick Papageorgio
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-07-12
                              • 2396

                              #15
                              This is a pick em fight. Only reason curran is fav is because of his name.
                              Comment
                              • Hannibal
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-15-11
                                • 1055

                                #16
                                dont think jose aldo would even be -900 against shamhalaev, but im on curran

                                appreciate the breakdown though
                                Comment
                                • NunyaBidness
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-26-09
                                  • 9345

                                  #17
                                  Curran should be -900 over Aldo.

                                  (Channeling MD)
                                  Comment
                                  • MD
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-31-12
                                    • 9728

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Hannibal
                                    dont think jose aldo would even be -900 against shamhalaev, but im on curran

                                    appreciate the breakdown though
                                    I'm talking about how I 'cap it rather than how I think the market will price it. Realistically, all Shamhalaev would have is a small puncher's chance against Aldo, and yet I agree Aldo probably wouldn't be -900. That's why MMA is so profitable in my opinion.

                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                    Curran should be -900 over Aldo.

                                    (Channeling MD)
                                    Aldo -300 in my opinion. -200 if Curran stopped being a passive phaget. If Curran fought high-volume he'd do a good job. He's like a better version of Edgar at 145.
                                    Comment
                                    • Hannibal
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-15-11
                                      • 1055

                                      #19
                                      if you really cap curran at -900... would you agree you are wrong if shahbulat can take a single round?
                                      Comment
                                      • sideloaded
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-21-10
                                        • 7561

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                                        Well looks like Mentally Diseased put his foot in it once again. %50 of bank roll on Hawn. %20 On Hawn/Cooper parlay. %05 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo parlay. %01 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo/Sham parlay. That's how it's done chaps.
                                        nice call of cooper bro
                                        Comment
                                        • MD
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 01-31-12
                                          • 9728

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Hannibal
                                          if you really cap curran at -900... would you agree you are wrong if shahbulat can take a single round?
                                          No. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if he won a round. Maybe even two at a stretch. I 'capped Curran at around -350 against Pitbull and I felt as if I was correct after that fight, even though it was competitive and close. It went pretty much exactly how I predicted in my analysis.
                                          Comment
                                          • NunyaBidness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-26-09
                                            • 9345

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Hannibal
                                            if you really cap curran at -900... would you agree you are wrong if shahbulat can take a single round?
                                            This is an interesting question.

                                            I've thought about it a lot, with no real conclusions.
                                            Comment
                                            • Hannibal
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-15-11
                                              • 1055

                                              #23
                                              i would think that to warrant -900, the skill discrepancy would be so great that the underdog shouldnt win a single round
                                              Comment
                                              • NunyaBidness
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-26-09
                                                • 9345

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Hannibal
                                                i would think that to warrant -900, the skill discrepancy would be so great that the underdog shouldnt win a single round
                                                I'm not sure. Make Diaz vs Penn a 5 rounder, I would make Diaz a huge favorite there but not expect him to win 5 rounds.
                                                Comment
                                                • sideloaded
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-21-10
                                                  • 7561

                                                  #25
                                                  where you at ron_paul? counting your sherdog points?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MD
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                    • 9728

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hannibal
                                                    i would think that to warrant -900, the skill discrepancy would be so great that the underdog shouldnt win a single round
                                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                    This is an interesting question.

                                                    I've thought about it a lot, with no real conclusions.
                                                    Odds are an indication of winning percentage, and I think there are plenty of situations in which a fighter can win a round but have little to no chance of winning a decision, particularly in a five-round fight. It shouldn't change the odds I give the fight if he wins a round, unless I also believe he has a significant chance of winning a decision.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sideloaded
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                      • 7561

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                      I'm not sure. Make Diaz vs Penn a 5 rounder, I would make Diaz a huge favorite there but not expect him to win 5 rounds.
                                                      yeah, i would say winning a round is fine for a -900 favorite. It happens in boxing every week.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hannibal
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-15-11
                                                        • 1055

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                                                        Well looks like Mentally Diseased put his foot in it once again. %50 of bank roll on Hawn. %20 On Hawn/Cooper parlay. %05 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo parlay. %01 On Hawn/Cooper/Frodo/Sham parlay. That's how it's done chaps.
                                                        down about 8%? lol
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sideloaded
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-21-10
                                                          • 7561

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Hannibal
                                                          down about 8%? lol
                                                          guy is a complete idiot, he's mocked me before on bets where I beat the closing line and I never said a bad word to him. He might be pueysophy's brother because they both are obsessed with fluoride in the water.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hannibal
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-15-11
                                                            • 1055

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                            yeah, i would say winning a round is fine for a -900 favorite. It happens in boxing every week.
                                                            in boxing, seems like -600 favs go down every other week
                                                            -900 is much more rare in mma, and indicates a serious mismatch
                                                            if you go by stats, -900 usually dont win any rounds, not that i have any stats to back that up lol
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MD
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-31-12
                                                              • 9728

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                              I'm not sure. Make Diaz vs Penn a 5 rounder, I would make Diaz a huge favorite there but not expect him to win 5 rounds.
                                                              I think you're looking at it wrong. You're handicapping percentage chance of winning, not skill. They are related but different.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MD
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-31-12
                                                                • 9728

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Hannibal
                                                                in boxing, seems like -600 favs go down every other week
                                                                -900 is much more rare in mma, and indicates a serious mismatch
                                                                if you go by stats, -900 usually dont win any rounds, not that i have any stats to back that up lol
                                                                Well, I 'cap Curran at around -900, and I think there's a solid chance he could lose the first round (close to 50% I'd imagine, although I haven't put much time into that estimate). For whatever that's worth.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Hannibal
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-15-11
                                                                  • 1055

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                                  I'm not sure. Make Diaz vs Penn a 5 rounder, I would make Diaz a huge favorite there but not expect him to win 5 rounds.
                                                                  if penn vs diaz was a 5 rounder, it still wouldnt have been -900 for diaz
                                                                  after seeing the first fight we might cap this scenario at -500, -600 for diaz, but before the fight happened..? a 5 rounder would still have diaz no more than -400
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • NunyaBidness
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 07-26-09
                                                                    • 9345

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by MD
                                                                    I think you're looking at it wrong. You're handicapping percentage chance of winning, not skill. They are related but different.
                                                                    I can't imagine what you think you're saying here.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • sideloaded
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                                      • 7561

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by MD
                                                                      I think you're looking at it wrong. You're handicapping percentage chance of winning, not skill. They are related but different.
                                                                      lol nunya is going to be pissed
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...