I noticed a couple guys in this forum talking about this book, so I ordered it to see if it contained any wisdom. I expected it would either be by a gambling theory guy, with little real talk of handicapping MMA, or a MMA capper with little knowledge of gambling theory.
Boy, was I wrong. It is neither.
The tricky thing about this book is it much better written than I would've expected. Most gambling books contain terrible sentence construction and seem to ramble on incoherently. Rothman makes his points so clearly that they almost seem reasonable, but anyone with any knowledge of gambling theory will know better.
To highlight some of the mistakes he makes:
- He claims that bankroll management is unnecessary, and you should just bet as big as you are comfortable. No mention of kelly staking whatsoever.
- He bashes the EV model, and claims you should not bet -200 favorites that you cap at -400 because the "margin of safety" isn't large enough. At another point he claims Rory a 70% favorite to beat BJ by decision, but will not take the decision prop at +141.
- He overestimates his edges, claiming Hughes had 0% chance to win against Penn in their third fight.
- He constantly uses percentages linearly, and assumes that the difference between 50% and 70% is the same as the difference between 70% and 90%.
- He claims you should bet very rarely, justifying it by use of the Pareto principle. Only your largest edges should ever be applied. Obviously betting any edges is the correct way to go. 7-11 would rather sell you a 128oz slurpy with 1% profit margin than a 24oz with a 5% profit margin.
- He mentions that anytime you think about making a bet you should sleep on it. "A good bet today will be a good bet tomorrow" I guess he's never seen the wild line movement in MMA.
There are many other mistakes throughout the book.
If we are to discuss his handicapping alone, there really isn't much to go on. He talks about "paths to victory", and gives no way to quantify it. He talks about the 10-80-10 rule about fighter's chins, with no way to quantify it in your handicaping. And he comes up with silly rules like "Never bet against great fighters."
He constantly compares Value Investing to MMA betting; which isn't a very useful comparison. It is important to make low-risk choices in investing because we are risking larger funds and holding them for longer periods of time. In MMA betting, there are another 200 bets available next week.
In summation, this book is not only not good, but would be a negative in the growth curve of any learning MMA bettor. Spend your money on a better general gambling book such as Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds.
Boy, was I wrong. It is neither.
The tricky thing about this book is it much better written than I would've expected. Most gambling books contain terrible sentence construction and seem to ramble on incoherently. Rothman makes his points so clearly that they almost seem reasonable, but anyone with any knowledge of gambling theory will know better.
To highlight some of the mistakes he makes:
- He claims that bankroll management is unnecessary, and you should just bet as big as you are comfortable. No mention of kelly staking whatsoever.
- He bashes the EV model, and claims you should not bet -200 favorites that you cap at -400 because the "margin of safety" isn't large enough. At another point he claims Rory a 70% favorite to beat BJ by decision, but will not take the decision prop at +141.
- He overestimates his edges, claiming Hughes had 0% chance to win against Penn in their third fight.
- He constantly uses percentages linearly, and assumes that the difference between 50% and 70% is the same as the difference between 70% and 90%.
- He claims you should bet very rarely, justifying it by use of the Pareto principle. Only your largest edges should ever be applied. Obviously betting any edges is the correct way to go. 7-11 would rather sell you a 128oz slurpy with 1% profit margin than a 24oz with a 5% profit margin.
- He mentions that anytime you think about making a bet you should sleep on it. "A good bet today will be a good bet tomorrow" I guess he's never seen the wild line movement in MMA.
There are many other mistakes throughout the book.
If we are to discuss his handicapping alone, there really isn't much to go on. He talks about "paths to victory", and gives no way to quantify it. He talks about the 10-80-10 rule about fighter's chins, with no way to quantify it in your handicaping. And he comes up with silly rules like "Never bet against great fighters."
He constantly compares Value Investing to MMA betting; which isn't a very useful comparison. It is important to make low-risk choices in investing because we are risking larger funds and holding them for longer periods of time. In MMA betting, there are another 200 bets available next week.
In summation, this book is not only not good, but would be a negative in the growth curve of any learning MMA bettor. Spend your money on a better general gambling book such as Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds.
