Nunya reviews "Betting on MMA" by Jason Rothman

[Boxscout]

. Just please don't use the Cole South pricing system.

[NunyaBidness]

I know bit of theory but I'm missing this, can you explain?

Meaning that edge doesn't move evenly with the percentage that something occurs. Getting -233 (70%) on something that occurs 90% of the time is a much different edge than getting Even money on something that occurs 70% of the time.

If you read his book, you'll see he just subtracts the 20% "margin of safety" from his price to determine whether he'll bet it, when the correct way to do it is compare the edge of your bet to your minimum edge (where 20% would be a ludicrous number, if you're passing on 5% edges, probably even 1% edges you're throwing money away or more likely overestimating your edge in the first place.)

[NunyaBidness]

Regarding the Poker vs Sports Betting discussion, what I like about poker is that if you're good at it then you have an edge at any time of the day, in sports betting you have an edge only as long as the line doesn't change. This leads to OMFGIhavetomakethebetbeforethelinemoves! and waiting for openers and such... something that I really hate.

And what I prefer about sportsbetting is that its scalable. If I can beat NBA money lines betting $10 a game, I can beat it betting $10,000 a game. The toughest guy in the local $1-$2 game can't usually beat a Vegas $10-$25 game.

[NunyaBidness]

if you had an option between three books to read for statistical data and probability, where would you turn? I just ordered three books for brewing my own beer, and I would like to also read about some stats pertaining to gambling while I try to create the worlds best micro brewery. thanx in advance

Be more specific, are you just starting out with stats? If so, any good textbook will get you going, and there are a number of free online classes available at coursera and other places.

If you want to get more in depth, I would look at:

http://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Hacks-Tools-Measuring-Beating/dp/0596101643/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521009626/

http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Economic-Decisions-Duxbury-Applied/dp/0534423817/

[NunyaBidness]

Based on your posts, I'd read that book for sure. If I'm honest, I'm probably more of a Jason than a Nunya. Though, I recognized most of the stuff in his book that you mentioned as being wrong, my actual bets are a haphazard flurry of parlays and speculation regarding line movements. I'm getting better at it, but still really working by "feel." You write with a great deal of clarity and I think you could convey how to be better at actual betting to even a dyslexic mess like myself. 90% of the time I read someone talking about that kind of thing on 2p2 or whatever, they're trying to sound smart instead of explain and I go into a coma halfway through their posts, but I read all of your posts here and actually enjoy doing so.

I appreciate the compliments.

I'm not 100% a math bettor myself. I use feel for lots of things, one of my chief prides in MMA betting is that I'm extremely good at predicting closing lines, I don't have any model for it, I just have a good instinct there. One could argue that my brain has worked out a model for it that I'm not aware of, which is probably what any successful 'feel' bettor is doing.

[gabe]

Why not just bet on who you think is going to win if the line is good? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ WINNERZ

[NunyaBidness]

. Just please don't use the Cole South pricing system.

Heh, you do that and it ends up getting torrented anyway.

[gabe]

I appreciate the compliments.

I'm not 100% a math bettor myself. I use feel for lots of things, one of my chief prides in MMA betting is that I'm extremely good at predicting closing lines, I don't have any model for it, I just have a good instinct there. One could argue that my brain has worked out a model for it that I'm not aware of, which is probably what any successful 'feel' bettor is doing.

I'll be your model.

[NunyaBidness]

Why not just bet on who you think is going to win if the line is good? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ WINNERZ

Because outside of MMA and award shows, I have no opinion who is going to win.

[NunyaBidness]

I'll be your model.

Sounds like a successful feel to me.

[omalley21]

Nunya going tout on us. I knew it was coming. jk I will def buy NUnyas book.

[MD]

Speaking of statistical progression, from our friend, Wannabet:

"EV is more likely mispriced in dogs & props. How much more than 80% can a -400 be? Not much. How much more can a 20% be? A LOT"

lolololol.

Not that I dislike Wannabet, I just like busting chops.

[Sacrelicious]

Hey I've been reading some stuff from Ganchrow, it got me digging through the think tank years back, been reading all morning, appreciate the heads up regarding his posts.

Its quite interesting to see that there was at one point actual useful discussions on the main forums, astounding.

[gabe]

If you guys want some real insight, pick up Leading With My Chin by Jay Leno in hardcopy.

[NunyaBidness]

Hey I've been reading some stuff from Ganchrow, it got me digging through the think tank years back, been reading all morning, appreciate the heads up regarding his posts.

Its quite interesting to see that there was at one point actual useful discussions on the main forums, astounding.

Yeah, I hadn't read Ganchrow until he was gone either.

Looking at the earlier stuff on this forum makes one feel like an archaeologist, discovering the ruins of a once great society (i.e. Greece), where they built on top of it a smog-filled shithole filled with lazy racists (i.e. still Greece.)

[MMAbetMASTA]

Ha how funny...

Thanks for the analysis and review nunya, I was one of those people talking about this book and was thinking about checking it out, sounded interesting with the investment and buffet perspective... Thanks for saving me the much needed time and money holmes, sounds like it was a joke for the most part although I'm sure there were some good elements to it as some have said.

There is another book out there I guess that discusses mma betting, I'm gonna look it up now but perhaps you or someone else has read it too..

Good looking out vato

[NunyaBidness]

I have not read any other books on MMA betting. Send me a link and I'll check it out, hopefully will be able to post a more positive review.

[GunShard]

First time hearing about the Pareto principle. I think it's what gamblers call "Spot Betting".

[sideloaded]

First time hearing about the Pareto principle. I think it's what gamblers call "Spot Betting".

[DeFactoCrippler]

Nice post Nunya, much appreciated.

More importantly, thanks to gabe for resarching the jew origins of this phaget.

Its funny, because I actually remember this Jason Rothman phaget posted here. He made a giant writeup about the cain jds fight and his analysis resulted in a "no play".

All the sbr sharps here white knighted the guy. I remember specifically the the phaget with the avatar where he shadow boxing the kid because I had to kick him off SBR for reasons such as this.

I remember all these phagets white knighted Luca Fury when he would just fabricate a record. The only reason they stopped is because Nunya told them to. Not because they investigated the matter themselves.

If Nunya didnt make this post these brainless focks would be socking this Rothman phagets rooster like they did Furys.

Cant make it up

[sideloaded]

i was always wary of fury, anyone that was a mod on sherdog should never be trusted. even if later he was banned.

I actually look down on people who have not been banned on sherdog. It shows that they are weak rooster suckers because that is the only way to stick around sherdog.

[DeFactoCrippler]

i was always wary of fury, anyone that was a mod on sherdog should never be trusted. even if later he was banned.

I actually look down on people who have not been banned on sherdog. It shows that they are weak rooster suckers because that is the only way to stick around sherdog.

Its funny because luca fury would just stright up lie and if anyone called him on it the phagets that suck nunyas dick would white knight him until nunya called them off.

They would be like, "you're just a hater who lives in his mothers basement". Meanwhile this fury phaget is living in his mothers basement. cant make it up.

Sherdog is gay because people cry to the mods. If anyone talks to mods they are a phaget for life, there is absolutely no way to erase it. if anyone else doesnt understand this, they themselves are obviously a pussy and a phaget.

I remember back when V was mod, it was like in the TV show oz when that black guy took over instead of mcmanus and the criminals ran shit.

You think people didnt snitch and complain about me to him? What do you think he did? He told me about and we laughed.

[Grabaka]

I remember back when V was mod, it was like in the TV show oz when that black guy took over instead of mcmanus and the criminals ran shit.

You think people didnt snitch and complain about me to him? What do you think he did? He told me about and we laughed.

LOL

[NunyaBidness]

I actually look down on people who have not been banned on sherdog.

Do I get cool points for never having signed up at sherdog?

[PunisherIND]

Do I get cool points for never having signed up at sherdog?

lol. I would argue that I get more cool points for signing up in 2005 and having a total of 3 posts in 8 years.

[Sacrelicious]

Also never signed up for Sherdog here, perused the forums for about 10 minutes a few years back and decided it would be pointless.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I don't recall anyone on this board taking Luca fury seriously... Ever.

[Grabaka]

I don't recall anyone on this board taking Luca fury seriously... Ever.

I strongly disagree... there was this time Luca said Gaberz was the BEST EVA! Gaberz took him seriously.

[Vaughany]

I've mentioned it before, and people probably assumed I was kidding. But, I am working on a book. It's about half done, it's not specific to MMA betting however. It's mostly gambling theory, lots of the examples will draw from MMA betting however.

I want an update on this Nunya? Closer to three-quarters way done now?

[Vaughany]

This was a great thread btw! some lulz was had

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Well he must be pretty close to done. We all know how much he values his privacy; Nunya recently contacted me to find out where he can get a good Marvel comic's mask so he can join the League of Masked Crusaders.


Kinda threw me for a loop. Always pictured him as a Doctor Claw kinda guy...

[Educ8d Degener8]

That cat looks nothing like Furry Lucy though.

[MD]

That cat looks nothing like Furry Lucy though.

We'll test it. Somebody throw that cat a chicken wing.

[gabe]

I strongly disagree... there was this time Luca said Gaberz was the BEST EVA! Gaberz took him seriously.

Says the guy with the worst MMA betting record on SBR... Something like 23-117 for 2013.

[Grabaka]

Says the guy with the worst MMA betting record on SBR... Something like 23-117 for 2013.

Says the broke guy.
Bug off im awesome dude