ive parlayed every bet since superbowl with gsp -470

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  • tbird509
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-05-09
    • 761

    #1
    ive parlayed every bet since superbowl with gsp -470
    if you guys are betting nba,just moneyline parlay everything you can with gsp, so far i basically have 5digits down and the odds are -200...example gsp-470/okc thunder-515 risking 1000 pays 448.25.....diaz has zero chance,all i see is pure domination
  • MD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-31-12
    • 9728

    #2
    Diaz has microscopic chances, but that's still a really bad decision.
    Comment
    • tbird509
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-05-09
      • 761

      #3
      last time i checked getting gsp at -200 is as good as it gets,so ill let you know what happens after the fight
      Comment
      • sideloaded
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-21-10
        • 7561

        #4
        you will probably win but why leverage your BR with parlays with a huge correlation?

        That is going to cause some major volatility.
        Comment
        • Beelzebubzy
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-06-11
          • 6995

          #5
          Good bankroll management I hope gsp doesn't get eye poked or break a hand
          Comment
          • sideloaded
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-21-10
            • 7561

            #6
            Originally posted by Beelzebubzy
            Good bankroll management I hope gsp doesn't get eye poked or break a hand
            I always thought keeping your money in 100 dollar bills in a giant suitcase was the best way to properly utilize it
            Comment
            • tbird509
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-05-09
              • 761

              #7
              so last night okc moneyline was -515,instead of laying down all that cash,i just parlay it with gsp-470,risk 1000 and receive 500 with gsp win,i do this with anderson silva,jon jones,and gsp goinhg back to 2006,so its basically the only way i bet...i dont bet spreads unless its a dog,otherwise ml ml ml
              Comment
              • NunyaBidness
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-26-09
                • 9345

                #8
                Originally posted by tbird509
                last time i checked getting gsp at -200 is as good as it gets,so ill let you know what happens after the fight
                Where did you get GSP at -200?
                Comment
                • DiggityDaggityDo
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-30-08
                  • 81454

                  #9
                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                  Where did you get GSP at -200?
                  Re-read what he said, Nunya.
                  Comment
                  • Vaughany
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 03-07-10
                    • 45563

                    #10
                    lol troll thread
                    Comment
                    • tbird509
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-05-09
                      • 761

                      #11
                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                      Where did you get GSP at -200?
                      read above,im parlaying all my ml nba bets with him,doing that so far,all my bets that have won that are still waiting on gsp to cash has me risking my money2/1
                      Comment
                      • NunyaBidness
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-26-09
                        • 9345

                        #12
                        Originally posted by tbird509
                        read above,im parlaying all my ml nba bets with him,doing that so far,all my bets that have won that are still waiting on gsp to cash has me risking my money2/1
                        Oh, so you won 100% of your other bets?
                        Comment
                        • Vaughany
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 03-07-10
                          • 45563

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                          Re-read what he said, Nunya.
                          "Have re-read it, still dont understand how he got GSP at -200"?!
                          Comment
                          • NunyaBidness
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-26-09
                            • 9345

                            #14
                            Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                            Re-read what he said, Nunya.
                            (It's called the socratic method, we're headed somewhere. Shhhh, don't tell anybody.)
                            Comment
                            • Beelzebubzy
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-06-11
                              • 6995

                              #15
                              Originally posted by sideloaded
                              I always thought keeping your money in 100 dollar bills in a giant suitcase was the best way to properly utilize it
                              You can still get eye poked
                              Comment
                              • tbird509
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-05-09
                                • 761

                                #16
                                heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1
                                Comment
                                • Beelzebubzy
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-06-11
                                  • 6995

                                  #17
                                  A -1200 favorite lost last week. They call him king slo mo
                                  Comment
                                  • NunyaBidness
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 07-26-09
                                    • 9345

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by tbird509
                                    heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1
                                    And what percentage of the times have you won those bets? 100%? Have you ever lost a single one?
                                    Comment
                                    • tbird509
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-05-09
                                      • 761

                                      #19
                                      yes ive lost since the superbowl twice on indiana losing at home to toronto and brooklyn back 2 back....guys im not trying to tell you how to bet,im just giving you another angle and sharing how i do it,so all the smack talk isnt what i was intending on starting....just give it a thought if your betting anything else right now
                                      Comment
                                      • tbird509
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-05-09
                                        • 761

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Beelzebubzy
                                        A -1200 favorite lost last week. They call him king slo mo
                                        it wasnt any of the teams i bet on
                                        Comment
                                        • Beelzebubzy
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-06-11
                                          • 6995

                                          #21
                                          So to answer nunyas question have you hit 100% of your plays with George's in them?
                                          Comment
                                          • NunyaBidness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-26-09
                                            • 9345

                                            #22
                                            So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.

                                            So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is-600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%

                                            We'll be generous and assume you're a standard bettor, losing the juice.

                                            So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then beapplied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units whichare gone forever.

                                            So,it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.
                                            Last edited by NunyaBidness; 02-25-13, 04:30 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • Vaughany
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 03-07-10
                                              • 45563

                                              #23
                                              hahahaaa
                                              Comment
                                              • Beelzebubzy
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 06-06-11
                                                • 6995

                                                #24
                                                Awesome and ouch all at once
                                                Comment
                                                • sideloaded
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-21-10
                                                  • 7561

                                                  #25
                                                  OP, you're failing to realize those "locks" you are parlaying with george are not in fact "locks"
                                                  Comment
                                                  • tbird509
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-05-09
                                                    • 761

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                    So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.

                                                    So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is -600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%

                                                    We'll assume you're a break even bettor.

                                                    So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then be applied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units which are gone forever.

                                                    So, it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.
                                                    ive got a local and would never want my money tied up over seas,i wager too much..average parlay is 500 and its nothing to add another zero to that when im very confident,take a look at those 4 teams home records since superbowl and you will see i have nothing but facts stated.their is no exageration when i tell what i have risked,its actually around -190
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sideloaded
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                      • 7561

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by tbird509
                                                      heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1
                                                      there is no way to bring george down to -200. that is not how odds work or parlays.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • NunyaBidness
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-26-09
                                                        • 9345

                                                        #28
                                                        You win.

                                                        Parlays are magic.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sideloaded
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-21-10
                                                          • 7561

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by tbird509
                                                          ive got a local and would never want my money tied up over seas,i wager too much..average parlay is 500 and its nothing to add another zero to that when im very confident,take a look at those 4 teams home records since superbowl and you will see i have nothing but facts stated.their is no exageration when i tell what i have risked,its actually around -190

                                                          Given GSP is a huge star, there is almost no way he is so mispriced that these bets have value.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • tbird509
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-05-09
                                                            • 761

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                            You win.

                                                            Parlays are magic.
                                                            i agree parlays are garbage.....put it this way,if anderson silva,gsp,jon jones are fighting,theirs half of your parlay already won,and the 4 teams i told you about winning percentage at home is above 82% you can pick and choose your spot depending who their playing,so tell me this if you liked gsp to win the fight and miami heat are playing sacramento in mia 2mor,mia will be atleast -1000 and gsp-470 ...no matter what the payout is (167) its worth it to me
                                                            Last edited by tbird509; 02-25-13, 04:45 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tbird509
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-05-09
                                                              • 761

                                                              #31
                                                              their isnt one thing diaz is better than gsp in,so i think the line is right on...diaz will never be a champion in ufc
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sideloaded
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-21-10
                                                                • 7561

                                                                #32
                                                                parlays are not garbage, they just increase volatility

                                                                you are grossly over estimating people winning though.

                                                                Jones has lost in the UFC.

                                                                Penn was a "lock" to most people when he fought edgar the first time
                                                                Comment
                                                                • tbird509
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-05-09
                                                                  • 761

                                                                  #33
                                                                  bahahaha..jones did lose on a dq back in 09,nobody has lost since(jones,silva,gsp),call it what you want,but i call it money in da bank
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tbird509
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-05-09
                                                                    • 761

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                                    there is no way to bring george down to -200. that is not how odds work or parlays.
                                                                    you must have no clue on how moneyline parlays work otherwise you wouldnt have said this
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NunyaBidness
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 07-26-09
                                                                      • 9345

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by tbird509
                                                                      you must have no clue on how moneyline parlays work otherwise you wouldnt have said this

                                                                      (Wish Gabers was here for this. . .)

                                                                      Delicious irony.
                                                                      Comment
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