if you guys are betting nba,just moneyline parlay everything you can with gsp, so far i basically have 5digits down and the odds are -200...example gsp-470/okc thunder-515 risking 1000 pays 448.25.....diaz has zero chance,all i see is pure domination
ive parlayed every bet since superbowl with gsp -470
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tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#1ive parlayed every bet since superbowl with gsp -470Tags: None -
MDSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-31-12
- 9728
#2Diaz has microscopic chances, but that's still a really bad decision.Comment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#3last time i checked getting gsp at -200 is as good as it gets,so ill let you know what happens after the fightComment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#4you will probably win but why leverage your BR with parlays with a huge correlation?
That is going to cause some major volatility.Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#5Good bankroll management I hope gsp doesn't get eye poked or break a handComment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#7so last night okc moneyline was -515,instead of laying down all that cash,i just parlay it with gsp-470,risk 1000 and receive 500 with gsp win,i do this with anderson silva,jon jones,and gsp goinhg back to 2006,so its basically the only way i bet...i dont bet spreads unless its a dog,otherwise ml ml mlComment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#10lol troll threadComment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#16heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#17A -1200 favorite lost last week. They call him king slo moComment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#18heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1Comment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#19yes ive lost since the superbowl twice on indiana losing at home to toronto and brooklyn back 2 back....guys im not trying to tell you how to bet,im just giving you another angle and sharing how i do it,so all the smack talk isnt what i was intending on starting....just give it a thought if your betting anything else right nowComment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#21So to answer nunyas question have you hit 100% of your plays with George's in them?Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#22So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.
So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is-600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%
We'll be generous and assume you're a standard bettor, losing the juice.
So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then beapplied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units whichare gone forever.
So,it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 02-25-13, 04:30 PM.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#23hahahaaaComment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#24Awesome and ouch all at onceComment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#25OP, you're failing to realize those "locks" you are parlaying with george are not in fact "locks"Comment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#26So, we'll take as a given you got GSP at -470. Given that is literally the worst price available we're going to make the assumption that you are not a great line shopper.
So, let's make the further assumption that your average non-gsp bet is -600, and we'll give you a generous comeback at +484. That makes your average odds of winning at 83.33%
We'll assume you're a break even bettor.
So each bet you have a .8333 chance of winning 1 unit which will then be applied to GSP at -470, and a .1666 chance of losing 6 units which are gone forever.
So, it looks to me like you don't have GSP at -200 or -470, but -548.Comment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#27heres exactly what im doing,im taking the heat,okc,spurs,indiana specifically at home,depending on what the moneyline is of their game,mia-14 will be -1500 ml...so when their that much of a fav,ill do 2,3,4 teamers,because im specifically betting on these teams only when their at home,their winning percentage at home for all 4 teams is over 85%,i parlay everything with gsp-470....that how i bring it down to -200... 2/1Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#28You win.
Parlays are magic.Comment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#29ive got a local and would never want my money tied up over seas,i wager too much..average parlay is 500 and its nothing to add another zero to that when im very confident,take a look at those 4 teams home records since superbowl and you will see i have nothing but facts stated.their is no exageration when i tell what i have risked,its actually around -190
Given GSP is a huge star, there is almost no way he is so mispriced that these bets have value.Comment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#30i agree parlays are garbage.....put it this way,if anderson silva,gsp,jon jones are fighting,theirs half of your parlay already won,and the 4 teams i told you about winning percentage at home is above 82% you can pick and choose your spot depending who their playing,so tell me this if you liked gsp to win the fight and miami heat are playing sacramento in mia 2mor,mia will be atleast -1000 and gsp-470 ...no matter what the payout is (167) its worth it to meLast edited by tbird509; 02-25-13, 04:45 PM.Comment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#31their isnt one thing diaz is better than gsp in,so i think the line is right on...diaz will never be a champion in ufcComment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#32parlays are not garbage, they just increase volatility
you are grossly over estimating people winning though.
Jones has lost in the UFC.
Penn was a "lock" to most people when he fought edgar the first timeComment -
tbird509SBR Wise Guy
- 11-05-09
- 761
#33bahahaha..jones did lose on a dq back in 09,nobody has lost since(jones,silva,gsp),call it what you want,but i call it money in da bankComment
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