MD's House of Winnerz

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  • Rubber Guard
    SBR MVP
    • 06-22-11
    • 1550

    #1961
    It was just odd to see JDS SO inferior last fight. NO defense, terrible footwork, terrible everything. I think Cain wins, but hard to believe JDS looks that bad and forgets every fundamental in the game.
    Comment
    • TheRifleman
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-30-12
      • 7284

      #1962
      Originally posted by MD
      Plays for tonight:

      I have Dos Santos KOtN at uh... +700 I think. Velasquez -195, -185, and some other odds, moderate-large. Jordan, and Melendez by decision moderate. Cormier by decision moderate-large. Decent amount on Dodson, although I don't think I did enough work on that, may have to arb out. I really like Velasquez by sub +1455, I think it should be closer to +600. Eye/Kaufman goes distance, uh... lots of other props.

      Anyway, I'm confident and expecting a good night. Mostly I hope the main event is good. I'm very excited for it.
      you really like Velasquez by sub? Who has he ever subbed? Is he going to sub a Brazilian BB, who is very difficult to take down .. submitting him? A wrestler?



      Come on...geez.


      JDS by KO....you will see a much more focused fighter this time....he was going through a lot of personal issues last fight...he is going to WAR tonight....
      Comment
      • MD
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-31-12
        • 9728

        #1963
        Originally posted by TheRifleman
        you really like Velasquez by sub? Who has he ever subbed? Is he going to sub a Brazilian BB, who is very difficult to take down and then sub him? A wrestler?

        Come on...geez.
        Your logic is terrible. And yes, I do.
        Comment
        • MD
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 01-31-12
          • 9728

          #1964
          Originally posted by MD
          Plays for tonight:

          I have Dos Santos KOtN at uh... +700 I think. Velasquez -195, -185, and some other odds, moderate-large. Jordan, and Melendez by decision moderate. Cormier by decision moderate-large. Decent amount on Dodson, although I don't think I did enough work on that, may have to arb out. I really like Velasquez by sub +1455, I think it should be closer to +600. Eye/Kaufman goes distance, uh... lots of other props.

          Anyway, I'm confident and expecting a good night. Mostly I hope the main event is good. I'm very excited for it.
          Oops, should have checked that line when I posted this. It's actually sitting right around +600 now. Oh well, GG, market.
          Comment
          • terpkeg
            SBR MVP
            • 10-26-09
            • 2364

            #1965
            Originally posted by MD
            Your logic is terrible. And yes, I do.
            Yea, I'm sure Velasquez has very quality sub game. He just chooses not to sacrifice position. But, if he is willing to take a risk, or JDS fatigued enough, i can see this. But I don't think +600 is good enough.

            Who knows what is camp was really focusing on though, besides a select few. Maybe they see an opportunity then JDS coming back to the feet.
            Comment
            • mmaed
              SBR MVP
              • 11-25-11
              • 1327

              #1966
              Originally posted by MD
              Plays for tonight:

              I have Dos Santos KOtN at uh... +700 I think. Velasquez -195, -185, and some other odds, moderate-large. Jordan, and Melendez by decision moderate. Cormier by decision moderate-large. Decent amount on Dodson, although I don't think I did enough work on that, may have to arb out. I really like Velasquez by sub +1455, I think it should be closer to +600. Eye/Kaufman goes distance, uh... lots of other props.

              Anyway, I'm confident and expecting a good night. Mostly I hope the main event is good. I'm very excited for it.
              Whats your fear with dodson?
              Comment
              • MD
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-31-12
                • 9728

                #1967
                Originally posted by mmaed
                Whats your fear with dodson?
                No fear, just lack of work put in. I assumed the line would move and that I'd end up liking Dodson anyway, and then I just never got around to watching tape on it. Pretty confident either way as Montague is probably going to need to outpoint Dodson on the feet to win, but hey, stranger things have happened.
                Comment
                • mmaed
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-25-11
                  • 1327

                  #1968
                  I watched montagues fight with ian mcall. He was getting the better of mcall standing for a good part of the first round. After that mcall took over with the wrestling. Thats the only fight i saw. I figure dodson should take this given how well he has done in the past against top competition.
                  Comment
                  • Thor4140
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-09-08
                    • 22296

                    #1969
                    i could see that Cain sub hitting. Not that far fetched. The guy has basically been taunted how he can't finish. Throw in the fact that Dana said that Cain told him and Larenzo that he didn't want the sub the 2nd fight and wanted to just punish him.
                    Comment
                    • Thor4140
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-09-08
                      • 22296

                      #1970
                      Cain hits like a girl? He absolutely flatten two of Dos Santos training partners and dropped Dos Santos a couple of times in their fight. No bet for me tho. Just gonna enjoy it. Line to high in my opinion
                      Comment
                      • DoggyStyle
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-14-13
                        • 890

                        #1971
                        KJ Noons -155 book it. 10x unit wager! No way sotowhatever can beat noons n George will be cut after this loss. Id wager on that as well if possible lmao
                        Comment
                        • DoggyStyle
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 07-14-13
                          • 890

                          #1972
                          Thank you Noons and oddsmakers. EZ $
                          Comment
                          • mmaed
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-25-11
                            • 1327

                            #1973
                            Cain has a decent chance of subbing jds because his pace will likely wear jds down and open up the sub a little bit more.
                            Comment
                            • MD
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-31-12
                              • 9728

                              #1974
                              Thread play cashed:

                              Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                              Won 18u on my Twitter plays tonight. Absolutely ridiculous night, +20% bankroll in my documented plays, and added 17% to my own bankroll. Biggest night since that Rashad/Hendo card, I think.

                              Hated to see Junior go out like that, though.
                              Comment
                              • Grabaka
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-19-11
                                • 3216

                                #1975
                                Congrats amigo!
                                I got me ~+11units today between college football, boxing and ufc.
                                Comment
                                • Mercersux
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-03-12
                                  • 1516

                                  #1976
                                  MD. MAH DUDE !!! up 5 units myself. congrats to you, Grabaka, all Cain backers !!!
                                  Comment
                                  • Grabaka
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-19-11
                                    • 3216

                                    #1977
                                    Originally posted by Mercersux
                                    MD. MAH DUDE !!! up 5 units myself. congrats to you, Grabaka, all Cain backers !!!
                                    Congratz tooo
                                    This kinda felt too easy. Hope we dont get surprised next week...does it start early?
                                    Comment
                                    • MD
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 01-31-12
                                      • 9728

                                      #1978
                                      Originally posted by Grabaka
                                      Congrats amigo!
                                      I got me ~+11units today between college football, boxing and ufc.
                                      That's great, man. I'm glad to hear it. It's nice to see the nice guys have good nights.

                                      Originally posted by Mercersux
                                      MD. MAH DUDE !!! up 5 units myself. congrats to you, Grabaka, all Cain backers !!!
                                      mah bro <3 Thanks man, you too.
                                      Comment
                                      • MD
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-31-12
                                        • 9728

                                        #1979
                                        Originally posted by Grabaka
                                        Congratz tooo
                                        This kinda felt too easy. Hope we dont get surprised next week...does it start early?
                                        I always have a pretty good feel for how I'm going to do on a card and, sadly, I'm almost always right. Logically I can't take anything from it, obviously, so I have to ignore it, but it sucks to see half my yearly profit wiped out on Brazil cards when I feel in advance that I'll finish down, despite thinking that all of my plays are +EV.
                                        Comment
                                        • Grabaka
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-19-11
                                          • 3216

                                          #1980
                                          Originally posted by MD
                                          I always have a pretty good feel for how I'm going to do on a card and, sadly, I'm almost always right. Logically I can't take anything from it, obviously, so I have to ignore it, but it sucks to see half my yearly profit wiped out on Brazil cards when I feel in advance that I'll finish down, despite thinking that all of my plays are +EV.
                                          So how are you gonna do in the next card? Good?

                                          Seems like a prop heavy card for me...but no idea how am gonna do
                                          Comment
                                          • MD
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 01-31-12
                                            • 9728

                                            #1981
                                            I think I'll do well, but I'll have a better sense of it once I start watching tape. There are a couple of plays I love right now that I think are insanely overvalued, expecting to have a lot down on the card by the time it rolls around.
                                            Comment
                                            • Grabaka
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-19-11
                                              • 3216

                                              #1982
                                              Which ones?
                                              do you like Tuck?
                                              Comment
                                              • Noleafclover
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-06-13
                                                • 1349

                                                #1983
                                                Originally posted by MD
                                                I always have a pretty good feel for how I'm going to do on a card and, sadly, I'm almost always right. Logically I can't take anything from it, obviously, so I have to ignore it, but it sucks to see half my yearly profit wiped out on Brazil cards when I feel in advance that I'll finish down, despite thinking that all of my plays are +EV.
                                                Kinda same boat. Been trying to be extra-careful on the Brazil cards, stay away if there's any doubt etc.
                                                Comment
                                                • mmaed
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-25-11
                                                  • 1327

                                                  #1984
                                                  Brazil cards are usually good for mismatches, who knows how long that will last though. On the nxt card im looking at jimmo, machida, and lineker.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mmaed
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-25-11
                                                    • 1327

                                                    #1985
                                                    Any opinion on Akop Stepanyan vs Mike Richman? It was recently added to the Bellator PPV. I think Stepanyan should be the better striker and will probably be the dog given that his bellator record isn't as good as Richmans. Pretty much all of Stepanyans losses can be attributed to his takedown defense. Richman doesn't seem like on to wrestle. I will have to watch some tape of course.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MD
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 01-31-12
                                                      • 9728

                                                      #1986
                                                      Originally posted by mmaed
                                                      Any opinion on Akop Stepanyan vs Mike Richman? It was recently added to the Bellator PPV. I think Stepanyan should be the better striker and will probably be the dog given that his bellator record isn't as good as Richmans. Pretty much all of Stepanyans losses can be attributed to his takedown defense. Richman doesn't seem like on to wrestle. I will have to watch some tape of course.
                                                      Haven't 'capped it yet. Doubt either is a big dog, though.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mmaed
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-25-11
                                                        • 1327

                                                        #1987
                                                        I am thinking Akop will open as the dog given he is 1-3 in bellator and richman is 4-2.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #1988
                                                          Originally posted by mmaed
                                                          I am thinking Akop will open as the dog given he is 1-3 in bellator and richman is 4-2.
                                                          Gaberz will be maxing the fuuck out of Stepancan so you'll get Richmann as a dog eventually anyway!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mmaed
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-25-11
                                                            • 1327

                                                            #1989
                                                            Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                            Gaberz will be maxing the fuuck out of Stepancan so you'll get Richmann as a dog eventually anyway!
                                                            Why will he be maxing him? I was hoping to get stepanyan. I still have to watch some tape though.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Vaughany
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 03-07-10
                                                              • 45563

                                                              #1990
                                                              Originally posted by mmaed
                                                              Why will he be maxing him? I was hoping to get stepanyan. I still have to watch some tape though.
                                                              Because he's Armenian
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MD
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-31-12
                                                                • 9728

                                                                #1991
                                                                Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                                                                Thread play cashed. Small winning night on my Twitter plays, finished up small myself, too, but hey, it'll pay for that Kindle I've been wanting.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • reigle9
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-25-07
                                                                  • 17879

                                                                  #1992
                                                                  Originally posted by MD
                                                                  http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...ler-170-a.html

                                                                  Thread play cashed. Small winning night on my Twitter plays, finished up small myself, too, but hey, it'll pay for that Kindle I've been wanting.
                                                                  Post something so I can say hi.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MD
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                                    • 9728

                                                                    #1993
                                                                    Originally posted by reigle9
                                                                    Post something so I can say hi.
                                                                    ? wat
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • reigle9
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 10-25-07
                                                                      • 17879

                                                                      #1994
                                                                      Originally posted by MD
                                                                      ? wat
                                                                      On twatter. I followed you earlier.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Vaughany
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 03-07-10
                                                                        • 45563

                                                                        #1995
                                                                        lol
                                                                        Comment
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