MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

On twatter. I followed you earlier.

wat. I've tweeted like 20 times today.

[Vaughany]

he wants you to tweet something dirty!

[reigle9]

wat. I've tweeted like 20 times today.

Like I remember 1 minute to the next.

[reigle9]

he wants you to tweet something dirty!

You do realize I have a 10-inch dick and the Muay Thai of 1995 chute boxe dont you hahahha?

[Beelzebubzy]

Wolf man made 21000 points tody on sports book and casino

how much of your payment will you get back

[Vaughany]

lol

[MD]

Pat Curran -315, boys. Big play.

[Beelzebubzy]

Pat Curran -315, boys. Big play.

Yeah thought the line would be much worse. I hit it as hard as bisping punches

[Hannibal]

Any love for richman @ +125?

[mmaed]

Any love for richman @ +125?

I am surprised Akop is hitting -180. I thought people would bet Richman. I bet it wont last.

[Hannibal]

I am surprised Akop is hitting -180. I thought people would bet Richman. I bet it wont last.

I have the same feeling.

[bjpenn85]

1000 gz already locked down

[reigle9]

Yeah thought the line would be much worse. I hit it as hard as bisping punches

So you're basically skipping it?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

1000 gz already locked down

1000 on Richman?

[mmaed]

I wish someone would bet 1000 on richman. I want to bet akop but i dont like the line.

[MD]

Barao opens -305, Aldo -600. Good job by Kalikas, though I'd have opened Aldo steeper. Lamas is the worst top-three guy I've seen in years.

[getlucky2win]

I bet a lil on Barao at 230 now. Can't pull trigger on Aldo. I thnk he dominates tho

[MD]

Pretty convinced now that media scorecards are not an accurate measure of whether a decision is good or not.

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/4094/Chris-Camozzi-vs-Nick-Ring

I've watched that first round four times now, and it's nothing short of criminal to give it to Camozzi.

Anyway, I'm considering betting on Halsey for the Bellator show. He should win pretty easily, but he's a real mental midget. Guy didn't show up to practice for the Olympic trials. Hard to take a guy like that seriously, even if he's much better than his opponent. Learned my lesson with Uriah Hall.

I'll probably avoid it for the time being, as I don't feel that I have enough information on Halsey at this point. May change if I watch more footage, but I doubt I'll commit any more time to that awful fight.

[MD]

On another note, when the fight aired, I had Larkin beating Carmont 29-28, giving Carmont round one. No idea how I did that, Carmont was throwing more in the first minute or so, then Larkin started throwing leg kicks and Carmont dived desperately for takedowns, and ate elbows and punches for the rest of the round while he tried to hold Larkin against the fence. That fight was legitimately a robbery, and it says a lot about Larkin that it was the worst he's looked in years, yet he deserved to beat Carmont 30-27.

Does anyone like Carmont? I can't think of a fighter I dislike more.

[Rubber Guard]

Barao opens -305, Aldo -600. Good job by Kalikas, though I'd have opened Aldo steeper. Lamas is the worst top-three guy I've seen in years.

Was surprised. Though Barao would open up lower (like -180) and climb quick. But opened at -305 and dropped to -230.

[Thor4140]

Barao opens -305, Aldo -600. Good job by Kalikas, though I'd have opened Aldo steeper. Lamas is the worst top-three guy I've seen in years.

i agree. someone on this site thinks he has a chance. I forget who posted it.

[MD]

Good God do I wish I could sleep.

In the mean time:

^ Small-moderate Breaking Bad spoilers.

[Pabst]

Any bets on UFN31 ?

[fitguy67]

Any bets on UFN31 ?

check out twitter @TheMDMMA

seems to be two picks so far:

Larkin (posted a few days ago at -308, has shortened considerably since then to -355 @5dimes)

Kennedy -5.5 at -195, posted about 12 hours ago...
__________

hey, MD...question about that Kennedy pick...i've never placed a points-spread bet yet in MMA because i'm not exactly sure how it operates...

I'd assume on a garden-variety three-rounder scored at 29-28, 29-28,29-28 for A over B(all 3 judges having it 2-unexceptional-rounds-to-1 in favour of A)...the gross point score would be 87-84...and that's what this sort of bet is based on...A-2.5 would win while A-3.5 would lose...similarly B+2.5 would lose while B+3.5 would win...

is this correct? if not, MD or anyone who knows that's near a keyboard...enlighten me...thanks

__________

BTW, i know this Kennedy fight is a five-rounder, my example is for a generic three-rounder for simplicity...to clarify the mechanics of how this sort of bet is graded

[MD]

Yes, that is correct.

As for bets, I tweeted Kennedy -5.5, Khabilov/Masvidal goes distance, and Larkin. Not done, though, will probably be tweeting more plays as the card approaches. Waiting for two lines to get better.

[Mercersux]

Yes, that is correct.

As for bets, I tweeted Kennedy -5.5, Khabilov/Masvidal goes distance, and Larkin. Not done, though, will probably be tweeting more plays as the card approaches. Waiting for two lines to get better.

Remember MD, As with all respected capperz, you can reserve the right to lose all recollection of your stated losing bets or miscalculate your W-L. Just like Gab....on second thought, let's not beat a dead horse eh Brah...

[MD]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/2667994-khabilov-135-a.html

^ Cashed this. Considering making another thread for Carmouche, but I'm not sure. If the line keeps dropping, I probably will.

[MD]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...lov-135-a.html

^ Cashed this. Considering making another thread for Carmouche, but I'm not sure. If the line keeps dropping, I probably will.

Glad I decided against that. Not the fight I expected at all; I thought that Carmouche would be pushing forward throwing punches, constantly on the offensive, hold Davis against the fence, and take her down whenever possible. Her wrestling is her best attribute and she hasn't attempted a single takedown. She's fighting a very poor fight. Impressed with Davis though, I've never seen her throw such hard leg kicks.

[Beelzebubzy]

Haven't capped lyoto yet but external factors included doesn't -260 seem low.

I have a be a high liquid portfolio so holding doesn't affect me much

[MD]

Haven't capped lyoto yet but external factors included doesn't -260 seem low.

I have a be a high liquid portfolio so holding doesn't affect me much

That depends. In a three round fight, it may be too high. Gegard is overrated in a lot of respects, but he's a very talented striker and he'll be bigger than Lyoto. I was actually hoping for Belfort vs Mousasi for some ezmoni. In a five round fight, though, it's very possible that Gegard gasses badly. The problem with this is that Lyoto's pace is slow, and Gegard will be chasing him for most of the fight. He didn't gas against Latifi, and Latifi spent most of the fight backing away and eating jabs and leg kicks. Gegard is definitely the more diverse and technical striker, and I also don't think this is a bad stylistic matchup for him, but as long as he's not getting Jewed by judges, Lyoto is borderline unbeatable at 185. A lot of people think that he'd beat Weidman. I'm not one of them, not by a long shot, but I understand why people feel that way.

Anyway, in a five round fight, it's probably a bit low, yeah.

[mmaed]

That depends. In a three round fight, it may be too high. Gegard is overrated in a lot of respects, but he's a very talented striker and he'll be bigger than Lyoto. I was actually hoping for Belfort vs Mousasi for some ezmoni. In a five round fight, though, it's very possible that Gegard gasses badly. The problem with this is that Lyoto's pace is slow, and Gegard will be chasing him for most of the fight. He didn't gas against Latifi, and Latifi spent most of the fight backing away and eating jabs and leg kicks. Gegard is definitely the more diverse and technical striker, and I also don't think this is a bad stylistic matchup for him, but as long as he's not getting Jewed by judges, Lyoto is borderline unbeatable at 185. A lot of people think that he'd beat Weidman. I'm not one of them, not by a long shot, but I understand why people feel that way.

Anyway, in a five round fight, it's probably a bit low, yeah.

What is your breakdown of weidman vs machida?

[raag]

I would also love to hear it!

[MD]

^ I'll probably address that later, but for now: Beltran +335.

Yeah, there may not be a 205er in Bellator or the UFC who Rampage should be -500 against.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

^ I'll probably address that later, but for now: Beltran +335.

Yeah, there may not be a 205er in Bellator or the UFC who Rampage should be -500 against.

So you are going Maxi bet on The Mexicutioner?

[MD]

So you are going Maxi bet on The Mexicutioner?

Already did. Hoping that public money comes in on Rampage late though. He should be the favourite, but that line is utterly ridiculous for a guy as bad as Rampage is.