Dwils mma thread

[NunyaBidness]

That's funny. Horseshoe Indiana is the exact casino I was referring to.

[Dwil125]

Apparently Rad martinez isnt fighting tonight I had that over 1.5 paired with ben henderson, Im about to watch makovsky on my dvr he lost??

[MD]

Apparently Rad martinez isnt fighting tonight I had that over 1.5 paired with ben henderson, Im about to watch makovsky on my dvr he lost??

Yeah, was somehow a split decision. He clearly lost to Leone.

[Dwil125]

I have Jessica eye -116 parlayed with diaz/henderson goes the distance. Added more on Jessica Eye at +133 and parlayed that with henderson wins by decision +124. I had henderson parlayed with over 1.5 for rad martinez but that was cancelled. I tailed Jc and took Abel Trujillo small and parlayed that with not macdonald itd.
Also have penn Itd very small.

[Dwil125]

Im going to add more on Henderson if Macdonald does not get a finish on Bj, Might Hedge the henderson plays with diaz sub/itd. Heres a couple I already had locked in.

150854790-1	12/7/12 6:51pm	$15.00	$63.29		Pending	2 Team Parlay
					Win	12/7/12 7:30pm Bellator Fighting 2004 Jessica Eye +133* vs Zoila Gurgel
					Pending	12/8/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +124* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision 150808794-1 12/7/12 3:26am $30.00 $60.78 Pending 2 Team Parlay Win 12/7/12 7:30pm Bellator Fighting 2004 Jessica Eye -116* vs Zoila Gurgel Pending 12/8/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1003 Diaz/Henderson goes 5 round distance -160* 150944520-1 12/8/12 1:20am $10.00 $52.54 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 12/9/12 4:05pm NFL Football 126 San Francisco 49ers -531* vs Miami Dolphins Pending 12/8/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1008 Not Diaz by 5 round decision -590* vs Diaz wins by 5 round decision Pending 12/8/12 8:30pm Props Fighting 1205 Penn wins inside distance +350* vs Not Penn inside distance

[Dwil125]

After not rory itd came in, I parlayed the over 4.5 with seahawks ml tomorrow. I profited 2 units for the night, Im still down 3 units for the year though.

[Dwil125]

I'm waiting for the Bellator lines to open up later today/tomorrow, I want to bet on that felice/patricia V o/u 2.5. I wanted martinez over 1.5 rounds but he is off the card Lots of mma coming up this friday, If anyone has any strong leans for bellator feel free to post them.

[PunisherIND]

I'm waiting for the Bellator lines to open up later today/tomorrow, I want to bet on that felice/patricia V o/u 2.5. I wanted martinez over 1.5 rounds but he is off the card Lots of mma coming up this friday, If anyone has any strong leans for bellator feel free to post them.

Dwil, i been meaning to ask you a very important question: you ever rolled with felice? was it as fun as i imagine it to be?

[Dwil125]

Dwil, i been meaning to ask you a very important question: you ever rolled with felice? was it as fun as i imagine it to be?

Haha yeah all the time I'm one of her main training partners since I fight at flyweight.

[Dwil125]

Idk what's taking 5D so long to release these lines... Anyone think the sportsbook line on Seth B/Mike Pierce is a little bit off?

[kripsak]

Idk what's taking 5D so long to release these lines... Anyone think the sportsbook line on Seth B/Mike Pierce is a little bit off?

Yup, I think it should be in the 150-175 range. I'm guessing the hype from Mike's last win kinda pushed the line up there.

[PunisherIND]

Haha yeah all the time I'm one of her main training partners since I fight at flyweight.

DAMN, you are one lucky guy.

[DeFactoCrippler]

sounds legit

[MD]

Yup, I think it should be in the 150-175 range. I'm guessing the hype from Mike's last win kinda pushed the line up there.

Pierce has almost no hype. He's one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, with a 7-3 UFC record, two split decision losses that most agree he deserved to win, and his only decisive loss being to Jon Fitch, the then-#2 fighter in the world, in a fight where he almost KO'd Fitch in the third round. The line is where it's at because of Pierce's well-rounded game and stunning consistency. What you see with Pierce is what you get, there's very little variance.

[gabe]

Pierce has almost no hype. He's one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, with a 7-3 UFC record, two split decision losses that most agree he deserved to win, and his only decisive loss being to Jon Fitch, the then-#2 fighter in the world, in a fight where he almost KO'd Fitch in the third round. The line is where it's at because of Pierce's well-rounded game and stunning consistency. What you see with Pierce is what you get, there's very little variance.

most agree he beat koscheck? on what fkn planet? lmao he's lucky he had one flukey judge who scored it for him

[kripsak]

Pierce has almost no hype. He's one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, with a 7-3 UFC record, two split decision losses that most agree he deserved to win, and his only decisive loss being to Jon Fitch, the then-#2 fighter in the world, in a fight where he almost KO'd Fitch in the third round. The line is where it's at because of Pierce's well-rounded game and stunning consistency. What you see with Pierce is what you get, there's very little variance.

Totally agree that Pierce can hang with the top UFC WW, but by the hype I was thinking of, was his last fight with A-Train, he was getting tooled with A-Train's improved standup, till that one punch that took him out. Always the case when someone gets knocked out.

Seth is a big dude dropping to 170, I'm pretty sure wrestling/grappling will be nullified in this bout, and it will be determined by who's winning the standup. Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights, but I'll definitely wait till weigh-ins to make the call.

Also agree that Pierce is a very consistent fighter, whereas Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights. That's the risk I see in this fight, if Seth has improved enough to get the W over Pierce.

[Vaughany]

Totally agree that Pierce can hang with the top UFC WW, but by the hype I was thinking of, was his last fight with A-Train, he was getting tooled with A-Train's improved standup, till that one punch that took him out. Always the case when someone gets knocked out.

Seth is a big dude dropping to 170, I'm pretty sure wrestling/grappling will be nullified in this bout, and it will be determined by who's winning the standup. Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights, but I'll definitely wait till weigh-ins to make the call.

Also agree that Pierce is a very consistent fighter, whereas Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights. That's the risk I see in this fight, if Seth has improved enough to get the W over Pierce.

Had a big size advantage on Benoist yet was still taken down by him...dont see why Pierce cant take him down

[kripsak]

Had a big size advantage on Benoist yet was still taken down by him...dont see why Pierce cant take him down

I'm hoping that A-Train trained Seth well enough to stop the TD.

If Pierce wins, I'll probably have to auto-fade those Power MMA Fit guy's.

[MD]

most agree he beat koscheck? on what fkn planet? lmao he's lucky he had one flukey judge who scored it for him

Two of three Sherdog judges gave it to Pierce, and Fightmetric also gave it to Pierce.

http://blog.fightmetric.com/2012/02/koscheck-vs-pierce-official-ufc.html

Totally agree that Pierce can hang with the top UFC WW, but by the hype I was thinking of, was his last fight with A-Train, he was getting tooled with A-Train's improved standup, till that one punch that took him out. Always the case when someone gets knocked out.

Seth is a big dude dropping to 170, I'm pretty sure wrestling/grappling will be nullified in this bout, and it will be determined by who's winning the standup. Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights, but I'll definitely wait till weigh-ins to make the call.

Also agree that Pierce is a very consistent fighter, whereas Seth has been steadily improving his last 2-3 fights. That's the risk I see in this fight, if Seth has improved enough to get the W over Pierce.

If anything, I think he lost hype with his performance against Simpson; he was getting mauled in the first round. I do think he'll be able to take down Seth, although I agree with your assessment about Seth's improved standup.

[Dwil125]

I took Seth at +309 I also threw it in a parlay. I have about 0.5 u on Seth B, I wanted to catch the opener on fight goes the distance at + odds but i missed it now its at -175. Ill check what the o/u is tomorrow.

[gabe]

Two of three Sherdog judges gave it to Pierce, and Fightmetric also gave it to Pierce.

http://blog.fightmetric.com/2012/02/koscheck-vs-pierce-official-ufc.html

If anything, I think he lost hype with his performance against Simpson; he was getting mauled in the first round. I do think he'll be able to take down Seth, although I agree with your assessment about Seth's improved standup.

Um, fight metric gives it to Kos 43-38... he landed more significant strikes and got the better of the grappling.

Koscheck convincingly won the first and third rounds. He outboxed him then got the late takedown. Round Winning 101.

[MD]

Um, fight metric gives it to Kos 43-38... he landed more significant strikes and got the better of the grappling.

Koscheck convincingly won the first and third rounds. He outboxed him then got the late takedown. Round Winning 101.

Uh... I just linked you to the Fightmetric stats, and they score it for Pierce. I know you're desperate to never lose an argument, but this is just getting silly.

[kripsak]

Seth should be good for a small play, but I'm not taking the bait. I'm playing it tight this weekend, since there's so many fights to choose from.

Looks like a large amount of the public is on Mike, usually when a large % of the public & fav are on the same side its a no play for me if I'm leaning towards the dog. Seth has a chance, but usually its one of those fights where its a long shot. Kinda like Yagin vs Hominick, Varner vs Barboza.

I'll definitely be rooting for Seth, also good stuff on the breakdowns, let's burn the books down this weekend.

[gabe]

Seth should be good for a small play, but I'm not taking the bait. I'm playing it tight this weekend, since there's so many fights to choose from.

Looks like a large amount of the public is on Mike, usually when a large % of the public & fav are on the same side its a no play for me if I'm leaning towards the dog. Seth has a chance, but usually its one of those fights where its a long shot. Kinda like Yagin vs Hominick, Varner vs Barboza.

I'll definitely be rooting for Seth, also good stuff on the breakdowns, let's burn the books down this weekend.

You're saying Pierce should be a -700 fav like those guys were? Yeah, right. Keep talking, buddy.

[Dwil125]

Seth should be good for a small play, but I'm not taking the bait. I'm playing it tight this weekend, since there's so many fights to choose from.

Looks like a large amount of the public is on Mike, usually when a large % of the public & fav are on the same side its a no play for me if I'm leaning towards the dog. Seth has a chance, but usually its one of those fights where its a long shot. Kinda like Yagin vs Hominick, Varner vs Barboza.

I'll definitely be rooting for Seth, also good stuff on the breakdowns, let's burn the books down this weekend.

I just think the lines way off, Im not going to have as many plays as I thought I would this weekend. Bellator isnt offering much tomorrow. Im going to figure out the rest of my plays tonight and post them before the event tomorrow, I might be taking Hector Lombard Hedged with Palhares Itd or by sub/ sub of the night.

[kripsak]

I just think the lines way off, Im not going to have as many plays as I thought I would this weekend. Bellator isnt offering much tomorrow. Im going to figure out the rest of my plays tonight and post them before the event tomorrow, I might be taking Hector Lombard Hedged with Palhares Itd or by sub/ sub of the night.

Lombard is a good solid bet, so far I've just placed:

SU: Pearson; Flectcher; Donovan
Parlay: Lombard, Mendes, Wilkinson (I know Mendes doesn't add much value in a parlay, but every little bit helps)

Take this with a grain of salt, I saw after the weigh-ins Bendo asked Cruz how's Pearson's training, and he said it was really sharp. It might be Cruz just hyping up his teammate.

[kripsak]

You're saying Pierce should be a -700 fav like those guys were? Yeah, right. Keep talking, buddy.

No way -700, that's reserved for Anderson Silva money right there.

I still think the lines should be around -150 to -175 for Pierce.

It's just a rule I put for myself (If I'm leaning toward a dog, and the public % is big on the fav, its a no play for me)

[gabe]

No way -700, that's reserved for Anderson Silva money right there.

I still think the lines should be around -150 to -175 for Pierce.

It's just a rule I put for myself (If I'm leaning toward a dog, and the public % is big on the fav, its a no play for me)

Barboza and Hominick were like -700, not -175, so you're pretty much retahded

[Crassus]

Barboza and Hominick were like -700, not -175, so you're pretty much retahded

Hominick was like -450 max in his fights.

[gabe]

Hominick was like -450 max in his fights.

No, he wasn't. He got to -750 vs Korean Zombie and -700ish vs Yagin. I was having a bad night and was considering chasing by betting Yagin at around +450-+500, but decided against it... Bad call.

[Crassus]

No, he wasn't. He got to -750 vs Korean Zombie and -700ish vs Yagin. I was having a bad night and was considering chasing by betting Yagin at around +450-+500, but decided against it... Bad call.

What books had him at -750 against Zombie?

[Vaughany]

Local book, you haven't heard of it.

[gabe]

What books had him at -750 against Zombie?

5dimes for sure

my last minute bet on zombie was around +500

[gabe]

The Hominick/Zombie closing line was well discussed on this forum. Zombie ending up as such a huge dog was the only reason I made my "risky" bet.

[Crassus]

The Hominick/Zombie closing line was well discussed on this forum. Zombie ending up as such a huge dog was the only reason I made my "risky" bet.

Weird...I played Korean zombie the afternoon of the fight (I'm pretty sure) and he was at like..+325