Dwils mma thread

[Dwil125]

You might get a Lesson on Kelly after one of your comments there

but you seem like a decent kid best of luck good sir

hope you make some squid

Almost all of my plays are for the same amount. Are you just saying based on my probablilty of him winnning and the odds im getting him at I should increase my bet size to reflect that?

[Beelzebubzy]

Almost all of my plays are for the same amount. Are you just saying based on my probablilty of him winnning and the odds im getting him at I should increase my bet size to reflect that?

Based on you Capping him at -115 and he is at +190 your Kelly bet should be X not sure if you already did this or if you follow it , but you seem wise enough to profit long term

[NunyaBidness]

Almost all of my plays are for the same amount. Are you just saying based on my probablilty of him winnning and the odds im getting him at I should increase my bet size to reflect that?

Yes, the higher your edge the more you should bet. Kelly Staking is the most optimal way of doing this. Flat betting is suboptimal.

[Vaughany]

Moto was in the states training at my gym for the entire month of october preparing for a fight in pancrase, shortly after he left he was called to replace the injured kyung ho kang at ufc on fuel 6. Caceres has been impressive since dropping down to 135 pounds his loss to figueroa should have been a win if not for the two point deduction. Caceres is a rangy southpaw at 5'10 with a long 73 inc reach, Moto is also a southpaw (so no advantage to either there) but is around 5'7.5 with a shorter reach. I believe moto is the more techinical striker after having sparred with him multiple times, however Bruce leroy reach/height should give him an edge in Striking. Neither fighter has much stopping power in there hands so I do not see Moto getting into trouble on the feet. Slight advantage: Caceres

On the ground I believe moto will have a big advantage over Caceres who does not have the best take down defense. Moto is a legit brown belt with a stifling top game he is also suprisingly strong when I grappled with him I felt like i could not move and I was submitted often. If moto can stay out of caceres guard to avoid his triangle/armbar combinations and work takedowns to half guard or side control I believe he has a shot at finishing caceres on the ground by sub. The wrestling advantage goes to moto, along with an edge in bjj.

Some other factors are alex never traveling or fighting outside of the United States,(besides the obv struggle of with the time change its also hard to find the right foods that you want in different countries) and switching camps to the mma lab with ben henderson. Another factor is Moto being in shape leading up to the fight and being able to work with bellator fw champ pat curran (5'10 striker) while in the states. I would cap motto at about -115 so ill add more on the +190 on 5D.

If moto stays out of caceres guard, and is agressive with his takedowns (which he was all of october) then I see him negating the reach disadvantage and putting alex on his back for 2 rounds to win a decision 29-28 across the board. Heres a group picture with moto in it after we finished training together, Pat Curran is there also
[ATTACH]50126[/ATTACH]

Good stuff

[Vaughany]

In terms of Kelly Criterion, if your bankroll is $1000 for instance, and you cap Tez at -115 and can get him at +190 then the optimal bet would be $290 (29.01% of bankroll). Many will do half-Kelly though to be more conservative so that would be $145
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/

[NunyaBidness]

Almost no one should be doing full kelly staking though. 1/4 is probably ideal.

[gabe]

Caceres wins. 'nuff said

[Dwil125]

Caceres wins. 'nuff said

How do you think he wins just by staying on the outside and winning a decision, are you betting on him?

[Dwil125]

added more on moto, also took the over 2.5 for + money

[Dwil125]

stand up from side control, awesome.

[NunyaBidness]

With an arm trapped, no less.

[Beelzebubzy]

nice takedown

[Dwil125]

Looks like im going to be down about 2u's I had Cung Itd, but was already down from Danzig and tezuka

[Vaughany]

Almost no one should be doing full kelly staking though. 1/4 is probably ideal.

yeah half-kelly is my max

[GigaOuts]

I guess being a mma fighter doesn't help much for capping fight. I recall Carlos Condit was wrong all 3 times when he was ask who would win the main even. I only recall he pick Cain Valasquez over JDs, not sure what the other 2 matches. I am too lazy to search...lol.

[Vaughany]

Bad luck on Tezuka bud, wasnt a bad performance to say it was short notice against a very tricky guy

[BIGDAY]

We get it back this weekend!!

[kripsak]

I guess being a mma fighter doesn't help much for capping fight. I recall Carlos Condit was wrong all 3 times when he was ask who would win the main even. I only recall he pick Cain Valasquez over JDs, not sure what the other 2 matches. I am too lazy to search...lol.

Yeah, Sherdog does some polling on fights with MMA fighters who they think will win, and most of the time those fighters get it wrong. Usually they pick by affiliation with their pick, the only guy who gives an honest pick would be Randy Couture.

dwil had some insider knowledge and that's good to know....if anybody trains with Rogan, now that dude has some serious insider knowledge.

[gabe]

you added more after my caceres post, guess you didn't trust me. =(

[bjpenn85]

Randy coutoure is horrible as a mma predictor. He is not updated at all. Most fighters have mma up their throat anyway, obviously if youre training every day, youre not going to sit down when you come home and break down mma matches for betting purposes. Thats what i believe, and therefor it is true Anyway, you need to be financially invested to care so much as we do. We care so much about those tiny tiny things that an average guy (mma fighters included) dont really care about, unless as i said financially invested. Of the things i think mma fighters can contribute to is detailed information about a fighters bad weight cut, deaths in family, break ups with girlfriends (boyfriend?), emtionally derailed etc.

[Dwil125]

Its not a big deal I took a shot on a underdog with an incorrect line and missed. I dont like many of the fights on this upcoming card though

[Dwil125]

Thanks. Rich Franklin was my most important play , I had Le itd to hedge though. How did you score the Danzig/gomi fight?

[Dwil125]

I only had one play on constantinos but nick ring got sick I guess . I hope everyone ended up profitable on the night though I didnt like this card very much, and I had an ammy fight at Xfo 46 so i actually missed a few of the main card fights. My coach was up in Montreal cornering Mark Hominick, does anyone know how he lost that I cant find a video anywhere

[Dwil125]

Garza just took him down?? http://mmajunkie.com/news/31677/ufc-...k-hominick.mma His takedowns arent that great since hes like 6'1 im surprised he got hominick down wow.

[Vaughany]

I only had one play on constantinos but nick ring got sick I guess . I hope everyone ended up profitable on the night though I didnt like this card very much, and I had an ammy fight at Xfo 46 so i actually missed a few of the main card fights. My coach was up in Montreal cornering Mark Hominick, does anyone know how he lost that I cant find a video anywhere

I saw you got the decision win... congrats bud I meant to come in here and wish you and your brother good luck yesterday but was distracted by betting on soccer all day!

Can see Hominick fight here... Part1: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_1/10045720
Part 2: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_2/10045721
Part 3: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_3/10045722

[Dwil125]

I saw you got the decision win... congrats bud I meant to come in here and wish you and your brother good luck yesterday but was distracted by betting on soccer all day!

Can see Hominick fight here... Part1: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_1/10045720
Part 2: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_2/10045721
Part 3: http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fight...art_3/10045722

Thanks V, I was looking for this everywhere. My fight can be watched here if you guys want to check it out, it was alright. https://www.payloadz.com/d1/default....96436A69EF5478

[Dwil125]

Pascal Krause is set to fight my team mate Mike Stumpf in Chicago at Ufc on Fox which ill be attending. Im going to be watching Stumpf train for the next 7 weeks to see how hes doing, and if the line is set correctly!

http://mmajunkie.com/news/2012/11/pascal-krauss-vs-mike-stumpf-joins-ufc-on-fox-6-in-chicago

[Vaughany]

Thanks V, I was looking for this everywhere. My fight can be watched here if you guys want to check it out, it was alright. https://www.payloadz.com/d1/default....96436A69EF5478

No worries bud. Nice one I'll watch it at some point during work today!

[Vaughany]

Pascal Krause is set to fight my team mate Mike Stumpf in Chicago at Ufc on Fox which ill be attending. Im going to be watching Stumpf train for the next 7 weeks to see how hes doing, and if the line is set correctly!

http://mmajunkie.com/news/2012/11/pa...x-6-in-chicago

Cool

[Grabaka]

Thanks V, I was looking for this everywhere. My fight can be watched here if you guys want to check it out, it was alright. https://www.payloadz.com/d1/default....96436A69EF5478

It expired

[Dwil125]

Thats weird, Ill put it on youtube later if I have time it wasnt a super exciting fight. Not everything is released for bellator yet on my site, but Im leaning towards Rad Martinez over 2.5 rounds and Jessica Eye as an underdog. I really wanted to attend these fights since I have so many team mates and friends fighting on the undercard, but im not 21 yet

[PunisherIND]

Thats weird, Ill put it on youtube later if I have time it wasnt a super exciting fight. Not everything is released for bellator yet on my site, but Im leaning towards Rad Martinez over 2.5 rounds and Jessica Eye as an underdog. I really wanted to attend these fights since I have so many team mates and friends fighting on the undercard, but im not 21 yet

huh? why do you have to be 21?

[NunyaBidness]

Probably a stupid casino with a stupid law. Took my family to the steakhouse at a Harrah's one time and they wouldn't let us in because we had to pass through the casino floor to get there.

[PunisherIND]

Probably a stupid casino with a stupid law. Took my family to the steakhouse at a Harrah's one time and they wouldn't let us in because we had to pass through the casino floor to get there.

Ahh you're probably right.

[Dwil125]

Wow I got the venues really mixed up, I wanted to go to next weeks Bellator show in Indiana at the horseshoe casino. I took Jessica eye at -116 yesterday on 5d, then added more on her at +133. I have rad martinez over 1.5 rounds -170 also.