Dwils mma thread

**Dwil125** · 06-18-13, 12:15 PM

.35u on sparks/minakov u1.5 -215 .35u on minakov. Both are open parlays with a spot for Frankie edgar -3.5

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-18-13, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Dwil125

Nope he's fine, fights off though. Kind of a long story actually, I can pm if you want to hear it.

Dwilly, hit me wit dat PM brah. I need some gossip reading material for my afternoon bathroom sit-down.

**Vaughany** · 06-18-13, 12:49 PM

Ha. Jus read whils t having a poop too!

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-18-13, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Ha. Jus read whils t having a poop too!

Guess where I am browsing the forum from right now, LOL...

**Vaughany** · 06-18-13, 03:15 PM

lol nothing beats it bro!

**Grabaka** · 06-18-13, 05:07 PM

I have an ipad with dock in the bathroom. lol at me and i never go bigger than 1/8 kelly dumps. goddam slow dumps.

**Vaughany** · 06-18-13, 05:09 PM

MD has moderate-to-uber dumps

**Grabaka** · 06-18-13, 05:10 PM

I know bro.....no other way he can make those thesis.

MD · 06-18-13, 06:10 PM

With how I've been doing recently, I may as well be shitting moderate-large gold nuggets.

**Dwil125** · 06-19-13, 01:28 PM

added more on minakov -485 and the under, also parlayed mo at -687 a couple times and a small play on hale.

**Dwil125** · 06-24-13, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Dwil125

added more on minakov -485 and the under, also parlayed mo at -687 a couple times and a small play on hale.

-3.7u ytd. Frankie Edgar straight up is going to complete all of my parlays to win 2.76u if he wins by decision ill win an additional .7u. I'm waiting on the -3.5 line to put a little bit on in case he does get a finish, only enough to cover my quarter unit of my decision plays.

**Dwil125** · 06-26-13, 11:22 PM

Ronnie mann is in town all the way from the uk to train with us for the next 3 weeks he's fighting july 20th in cage warriors

**Dwil125** · 07-03-13, 01:53 AM

Uploading pictures still isn't working for me, hopefully ill have that figured out by Saturday

**Dwil125** · 07-06-13, 03:22 AM

**Dwil125** · 07-06-13, 05:24 PM

Pierce -466 in a two teamer with minakov/sparks under to win .25 the pierce -466 parlayed with mo, minakov, Edgar.

**Dwil125** · 07-06-13, 06:36 PM

Added this 3 teamer: Edgar, barbosa,boetsch all point spreads half a unit. Still huge on Edgar straight up. small on Edgar Decision

**Dwil125** · 07-06-13, 11:20 PM

Silva itd, weidman decision.

**Dwil125** · 07-07-13, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by Dwil125

Silva itd, weidman decision.

Lost boetsch +3.5 too Killed a whole unit of my profits between these. Ufc 162: +1.83u Ytd: -1.87u

**Dwil125** · 07-12-13, 12:40 AM

On mizuki +151 and smith -169.

**Dwil125** · 07-13-13, 01:46 AM

.25u on Leslie smith,masvidal, open.
.5u on Leslie Smith (-169), Vinny M -281
.57u on mizuki +151. (one spot open for king mo)
.25u on mizuki +151, calderwood, masvidal

**Dwil125** · 07-25-13, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by Dwil125

.25u on Leslie smith,masvidal, open.
.5u on Leslie Smith (-169), Vinny M -281
.57u on mizuki +151. (one spot open for king mo)
.25u on mizuki +151, calderwood, masvidal

For Saturday I'm on Masvidal, not canmouche in round 1, and Andrade +472. I like the Ellenberger Itd props, haven't bet them. I added a last minute parlay that wasn't posted for last event: Calderwood, mizuki, leslie smith, Sara D'Alelio -.25u. -2.12u Ytd

**Dwil125** · 07-27-13, 08:00 PM

Hit my quarter unit parlay for 1.15u ( added not carmouche in rd 1). Tiny on ellenberger itd

**Dwil125** · 07-27-13, 11:28 PM

Won .8u (losing on Andrade, Ellenberger Itd.) -1.32u Ytd.

**Dwil125** · 07-31-13, 05:19 PM

Anchoring my two teamer from mizuki +151 with mo -719. .57u to win 1.07u. I have a bunch of other parlays with mo -719 for about another 1.25u a couple with chandler too. Then I have minakov, mo, under 4.5 chandler/rickels (-145), and also -670 about a quarter unit to win half a unit.

**Dwil125** · 07-31-13, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Dwil125

.25u on Leslie smith,masvidal, open.
.5u on Leslie Smith (-169), Vinny M -281
.57u on mizuki +151. (one spot open for king mo)
.25u on mizuki +151, calderwood, masvidal

So far so good. Added .16u on koreshkov. Didnt realize he didnt bring a single wrestler into his camp. Hopefully he can work some footwork and distance since he doesnt have to worry about askren on the feet

**Dwil125** · 08-01-13, 09:37 AM

Bfc 97 = +.87u bringing me to -.45u ytd.

**Dwil125** · 08-03-13, 04:13 PM

[QUOTE=Dwil125;19280380]Anchoring my two teamer from mizuki +151 with mo -719. .57u to win 1.07u. I have a bunch of other parlays with mo -719 for about another 1.25u a couple with chandler too. Then I have minakov, mo, under 4.5 chandler/rickels (-145), and also -670 about a quarter unit to win half a unit.[/QUOTE**]
Gaff/Nunes wont start round 3 (-175), yahya -3.5, (Open) .35u to win .3u Aldo by tko (-160), fight wont go distance Vinny M/perosh -165, (open) .2u to win .33u. Aldo -670 from above wins .5u. Vinny M -281 wins .93u (completing the leslie smith plays). Small play on tome, aldo, king mo.

**Dwil125** · 08-03-13, 04:28 PM

also need aldo/jung to start round 3, parlayed that with king mo too.

MD · 08-03-13, 04:43 PM

You need Aldo by KO, but not in the first two rounds? Bad position in my opinion, the odds of an Aldo KO will surely drop as the fight goes on. He could get the late finish, but it's not something I'd bank on.

Personally I see a lot of value in Aldo UD at >+400, but I do expect him to get the KO, probably early.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-13, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by MD

You need Aldo by KO, but not in the first two rounds? Bad position in my opinion, the odds of an Aldo KO will surely drop as the fight goes on.

Disagree, his KO percentage should vary inversely with time centered around the 2 round mark. A number of early KO's, then dropping down towards the half way point of the first round, and then increasing again as we enter round 3. If we assume his game plan is to either pull off a cub-style blitz or to do his normal hang back and destroy legs (which should work easily against Zombie's stance/movement) I would expect a 3rd to 4th round stoppage the majority of the time.

**PunisherIND** · 08-03-13, 04:56 PM

nunya got graphs and shit.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-13, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

nunya got graphs and shit.

Heh, almost graphed it, but got lazy.

MD · 08-03-13, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Disagree, his KO percentage should vary inversely with time centered around the 2 round mark. A number of early KO's, then dropping down towards the half way point of the first round, and then increasing again as we enter round 3. If we assume his game plan is to either pull off a cub-style blitz or to do his normal hang back and destroy legs (which should work easily against Zombie's stance/movement) I would expect a 3rd to 4th round stoppage the majority of the time.

Aldo almost always has the same game plan when he strikes (barring maybe the Edgar fight, he seemed to work a newfound jab in that fight, at least for the first couple of rounds), so I'm not expecting much deviation there. I have to disagree with you about the late stoppage though. I'm expecting a round two KO if he finishes him. How often do you think he gets the stoppage?

Did you play Aldo straight by the way? I forgot to ask.

**plekz** · 08-03-13, 05:01 PM

Aldo is either gonna berserk KZ and take advantage of all the holes KZ leaves when he comes forward, if he doesnt get him out of there in like 2,5 rounds he'll most likely switch it down to not risk anything bad happening and win the remaining rounds. I fully expect Aldo to fubar KZ's legs to take away his ability to move forward.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-13, 05:03 PM

About 75-80% of the time, IMO. If Zombie can't implement his gameplan, he's in for a rough night.

Hopefully zombie twists his body in half though. . .