UFC 154: St-Pierre Vs Condit(Nov 17th, 2012)

**pongo7890** · 11-07-12, 10:58 AM

Ive got a fair bit on Kampmann to win and GSP in some parlays

**Fadikro** · 11-07-12, 09:59 PM

Nice to see peoples on kampmann

**Rubber Guard** · 11-08-12, 10:55 AM

That fight is hard for me to pick a side.

On one hand Hendricks may be overrated. But Kampmann's wins other than Ellenberger are pretty iffy. He got his asshanded to him by Alves and pull off a miraculous sub to get that win. He gets hit in the face a lot in each and every fight. Not sure if you want to take many of Hendricks punches.

Good matchup really. Hendricks can dictate where this fight is fought. But Kampmann is better technically with his BJJ and striking. However Hendricks holds the power advantage.

**pongo7890** · 11-08-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

That fight is hard for me to pick a side.

On one hand Hendricks may be overrated. But Kampmann's wins other than Ellenberger are pretty iffy. He got his asshanded to him by Alves and pull off a miraculous sub to get that win. He gets hit in the face a lot in each and every fight. Not sure if you want to take many of Hendricks punches.

Good matchup really. Hendricks can dictate where this fight is fought. But Kampmann is better technically with his BJJ and striking. However Hendricks holds the power advantage.

Yeh it certainly aint a safe bet, but it is gambling so im gonna take a gamble and hope it pays off

**BIGDAY** · 11-08-12, 12:48 PM

I'm ready for a new welterweight belt holder.

This title fight should be a very interesting to watch. Both fighters keep away from danger well.

**Rubber Guard** · 11-08-12, 02:31 PM

Unless GSP is off because of the layoff, I have him winning every round.

Condit doesn't have any TDD. Less than Nick Diaz. And his BJJ is overrated. Sure it is good, but not good enough to deal with GSP on top.

Condit won't be able to run around the cage in this one. He needs to go balls to the wall to have a shot.

**Judgejoebrwn** · 11-08-12, 03:57 PM

Yeah Condit hasn't been tested on the ground, at least certainly not to the degree that GSP will test him, and even on his feet GSP was able to stand with and beat Koscheck. If GSP backs up his claims as of late, I could see a 3rd or 4th round TKO victory from G&P.

I'm on Kampmann as well. His fights as of late haven't been pretty, but neither have the Buckeyes. They're still undefeated, though, as they just find ways to win. Despite being in trouble against Ellenberger, he was able to recover and close the deal. I think Hendricks is hyped due to the Fitch KO, but a lucky early punch is no more a testament of his capability than JDS over Cain (I think Cain has a great shot at beating JDS).

**Vaughany** · 11-08-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Judgejoebrwn

Yeah Condit hasn't been tested on the ground, at least certainly not to the degree that GSP will test him, and even on his feet GSP was able to stand with and beat Koscheck. If GSP backs up his claims as of late, I could see a 3rd or 4th round TKO victory from G&P.

I'm on Kampmann as well. His fights as of late haven't been pretty, but neither have the Buckeyes. They're still undefeated, though, as they just find ways to win. Despite being in trouble against Ellenberger, he was able to recover and close the deal. I think Hendricks is hyped due to the Fitch KO, but a lucky early punch is no more a testament of his capability than JDS over Cain (I think Cain has a great shot at beating JDS).

I wouldnt count that as much....Koscheck has some of the most basic one dimensional striking in the UFC (not to say that GSP isnt a great striker tho)

**El Nino** · 11-08-12, 05:18 PM

I see this card as being very boring. May sprinkle some on Kampman and Ring. I can see GSP playing blanket in his first fight back.

**PunisherIND** · 11-12-12, 06:43 PM

St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. +125

and a sprinkle on

Condit wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec. +2685

MD · 11-12-12, 07:39 PM

MD's "Go Big or Go F-ck Yourself" parlay of the year.

GSP by decision, Benson Henderson by decision, Chris Weidman; +393. Mother penetrating value. Add Jones at -800 to get +455. Ridiculous. Pretty confident I'm going to make bank on this parlay.

**PunisherIND** · 11-12-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by MD

MD's "Go Big or Go F-ck Yourself" parlay of the year.

GSP by decision, Benson Henderson by decision, Chris Weidman; +393. Mother penetrating value. Add Jones at -800 to get +455. Ridiculous. Pretty confident I'm going to make bank on this parlay.

love the play, but which book has those prop lines and jones at -800?

**Mercersux** · 11-12-12, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by MD

MD's "Go Big or Go F-ck Yourself" parlay of the year.

GSP by decision, Benson Henderson by decision, Chris Weidman; +393. Mother penetrating value. Add Jones at -800 to get +455. Ridiculous. Pretty confident I'm going to make bank on this parlay.

I actually really like that parlay as well. May have to throw a few bones down on it. Props.

**poopoo333** · 11-12-12, 08:39 PM

GSP by UD, Bendo by decision, Weidman, Pacquiao by decision= +1200

MD · 11-12-12, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

love the play, but which book has those prop lines and jones at -800?

None; I pounded that parlay at 5dimes, minus the Jones line, and am considering dumping all of the winnings on Jones at another site should the parlay cash and the odds remain relatively close to -800. That fight isn't for quite some time, either, so I'm not expecting too much line movement. 5D has Jones at just under -1200 currently, I believe.

**PunisherIND** · 11-12-12, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by MD

None; I pounded that parlay at 5dimes, minus the Jones line, and am considering dumping all of the winnings on Jones at another site should the parlay cash and the odds remain relatively close to -800. That fight isn't for quite some time, either, so I'm not expecting too much line movement. 5D has Jones at just under -1200 currently, I believe.

like it. will probably do something similar, but i'll probably go with jones itd. dont see sonnen lasting very long.

**Thor4140** · 11-12-12, 09:17 PM

Good luck betting Kapmann and hoping he fights smart. He usually gets knockdown early and it looks like he is fighting a guy that might smash that chin for good. Then again i thought Hendrix boxing went to hell in the Kos fight when he got tired. No play for me.
GSP fight looks like we are gonna finally see GSP fight a guy who knows how to throw in a sweep from time to time. I think this is goonna be a good fight with GSP getting the nod but at those odds i think the value is with Condit. Condit does get taken down rather easily but the guy knows how to get back up and won't lay there like a turtle flipped on his shell like the rest of guys GSP has fought. To risky to bet GSP with that long layoff. You know Condit won't gas but with the layoff is it possible GSP does? Riddle is a stiff. Mcguire should handle him if he is interested in fighting Saturday night. Like Phillip but somehow Ring wins. Phillip improves every fight. Also like Cote. This is all about who has the better chin. They will be swinging with Sak getting the better of it till he drops like he usually does.

MD · 11-12-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Good luck betting Kapmann and hoping he fights smart. He usually gets knockdown early and it looks like he is fighting a guy that might smash that chin for good. Then again i thought Hendrix boxing went to hell in the Kos fight when he got tired. No play for me.
GSP fight looks like we are gonna finally see GSP fight a guy who knows how to throw in a sweep from time to time. I think this is goonna be a good fight with GSP getting the nod but at those odds i think the value is with Condit. Condit does get taken down rather easily but the guy knows how to get back up and won't lay there like a turtle flipped on his shell like the rest of guys GSP has fought. To risky to bet GSP with that long layoff. You know Condit won't gas but with the layoff is it possible GSP does? Riddle is a stiff. Mcguire should handle him if he is interested in fighting Saturday night. Like Phillip but somehow Ring wins. Phillip improves every fight. Also like Cote. This is all about who has the better chin. They will be swinging with Sak getting the better of it till he drops like he usually does.

I doubt GSP will gas. GSP is a tactical genius, and he wouldn't even consider touching an octagon door without absolute preparation beforehand. Penn's guard is infinitely better than Condit's, even when you include for the size differentials, and they have a similar style of guard. Penn's RG is very much superior to Condit's and he got man-handled by St-Pierre. Don't see this going well for Condit. Play the KO prop if anything, I think.

**gabe** · 11-13-12, 01:04 AM

Carmont ITD, 1st round

**bogbat** · 11-13-12, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Carmont ITD, 1st round

Quebec or not, I'm surprised to this fight on the main card. Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler, which is on the Facebook prelims, is more deserving.

**Mercersux** · 11-13-12, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. +125

and a sprinkle on

Condit wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec. +2685

Absolutely love this bet. Can definitely see St. Pierre taking his usual conservative route, especially the situation he's in. I'm floored at how much value your getting out of Condit by decision. Is it really that far fetched that e could win in that fashion? I for one don't think it should be valued like that. I'll take it though.

**Mercersux** · 11-13-12, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by bogbat

Quebec or not, I'm surprised to this fight on the main card. Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler, which is on the Facebook prelims, is more deserving.

It's definitely the whole hometown bs that got this fight on the card. I thinking the ufc may also be expecting some good things from Carmont. Siler has took great since TUF tho so he should at least be on the prelims and not relegated to the facebook matches.

**Vaughany** · 11-13-12, 03:43 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Absolutely love this bet. Can definitely see St. Pierre taking his usual conservative route, especially the situation he's in. I'm floored at how much value your getting out of Condit by decision. Is it really that far fetched that e could win in that fashion? I for one don't think it should be valued like that. I'll take it though.

It's because it's "Unanimous decision" rather than just "decision". The Decision prop is -150

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 11-13-12, 03:59 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

It's definitely the whole hometown bs that got this fight on the card. I thinking the ufc may also be expecting some good things from Carmont. Siler has took great since TUF tho so he should at least be on the prelims and not relegated to the facebook matches.

Carmont is from France, training in Montreal for the last year hardly makes him a hometown fighter.

**Mercersux** · 11-13-12, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

Carmont is from France, training in Montreal for the last year hardly makes him a hometown fighter.

Lol well since he fights out of montreal, close enough. As far as the decision prop, if St. Pierre wins by decision I would lean towards unanimous so still a good prop.

**GunShard** · 11-13-12, 06:04 AM

I should place a small bet on Condit.

Can't wait for this event.

**PunisherIND** · 11-13-12, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

It's because it's "Unanimous decision" rather than just "decision". The Decision prop is -150

yea, i have some money on gsp by decision at around -140 also. my basic feeling is that georges will fight conservatively, maybe a little tentative. but i think he does enough of a smother job to win the unanimous decision. going very small on condit by split dec just because, if gsp is tentative, i can see condit doing enough on the feet, maybe running around a bit, to steal 3 close rounds. ill take my chances that condit wont do enough for a unanimous.

**gabe** · 11-13-12, 11:30 AM

Carmont/Lawlor is on the main card because the UFC feels Carmont will get an exciting finish for the crowd.

**Vaughany** · 11-13-12, 11:32 AM

yeah, they clearly think he's a legit future contender or at least future top 6 so needs to be showcased on main card. And at end of the day neither fighter has ever been in a boring fight apart from when Lawlor grinded out a win against Cote

**Thor4140** · 11-13-12, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by MD

I doubt GSP will gas. GSP is a tactical genius, and he wouldn't even consider touching an octagon door without absolute preparation beforehand. Penn's guard is infinitely better than Condit's, even when you include for the size differentials, and they have a similar style of guard. Penn's RG is very much superior to Condit's and he got man-handled by St-Pierre. Don't see this going well for Condit. Play the KO prop if anything, I think.

Penn got beaten down before GSP put him on his back. A tired Penn. GSP gassing is risky thinking but this is a long layoff. Even odds i take GSP but these odds are to big. Great fight to watch. Winklejohn knows all of GSP strengths and this could be a big factor in this fight.

**gabe** · 11-13-12, 11:48 AM

I told myself I would bet GSP after Condit looked horrible in the Diaz robbery, but I don't like betting heavy juiced lines like that straight up anymore

**Vaughany** · 11-13-12, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

yea, i have some money on gsp by decision at around -140 also. my basic feeling is that georges will fight conservatively, maybe a little tentative. but i think he does enough of a smother job to win the unanimous decision. going very small on condit by split dec just because, if gsp is tentative, i can see condit doing enough on the feet, maybe running around a bit, to steal 3 close rounds. ill take my chances that condit wont do enough for a unanimous.

cant knock tht logic

**Thor4140** · 11-13-12, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by MD

I doubt GSP will gas. GSP is a tactical genius, and he wouldn't even consider touching an octagon door without absolute preparation beforehand. Penn's guard is infinitely better than Condit's, even when you include for the size differentials, and they have a similar style of guard. Penn's RG is very much superior to Condit's and he got man-handled by St-Pierre. Don't see this going well for Condit. Play the KO prop if anything, I think.

GSP by KO? That to me is the worst bet to make. If anyone is KOing anyone it is the other way around.

**Thor4140** · 11-13-12, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I told myself I would bet GSP after Condit looked horrible in the Diaz robbery, but I don't like betting heavy juiced lines like that straight up anymore

another horrible robbery only in your eyes. Anyone sane knows it was a close fight or Condits beside you or other Diaz nut huggers.