Bellator 77

**Vaughany** · 10-16-12, 02:50 PM

Will the Russians continue their dominance in Bellator? Or is time to start fading them based on law of averages that one of them has to lose eventually!?

**Vaughany** · 10-16-12, 02:51 PM

Was hopin to see Sarnavskiy closer to -200 and Saadulaev at +130 to +150 range

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-16-12, 07:06 PM

Sarnavskiy is a lock

the other 2 south russians/caucasians

Marcin Held vs Murad Machaev both guys have a good ground game, marcin is dangerous with leg locks and Machaev is good with the chokes Standing i'd give the advantage to Machaev coming from a combat sambo background, Held has not fully developed his striking game.

Saadulaev vs Jensen is tough to play Jensen is solid on the ground Saadulaev is good too

**omalley21** · 10-17-12, 09:30 AM

I took tirloni -115 and sarnivskiy -280. I've got buyers remorse on sarnivskiy already. I normally don't like to lay the chalk on someone so young. His cardio worries me.

**PunisherIND** · 10-17-12, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by omalley21

I took tirloni -115 and sarnivskiy -280. I've got buyers remorse on sarnivskiy already. I normally don't like to lay the chalk on someone so young. His cardio worries me.

i agree the line is a bit steep, but he's fighting rich clementi. you'll be fine.

**CannedGoods** · 10-18-12, 03:09 PM

Would I be crazy to drop a lot of $ on Sarnavskiy??

**v1y** · 10-18-12, 04:03 PM

fact is clementi is the kind of guy to win fights he should lose, like this one.

**Fragoel2** · 10-18-12, 04:19 PM

I'm the only one who likes Nazare over Tirloni?

**PunisherIND** · 10-18-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by v1y

fact is clementi is the kind of guy to win fights he should lose, like this one.

have to respectfully disagree with this statement. imo he loses the fights he should lose (chris clements, aoki, mad dog madadi, carey vernier, quinn mulhern) and occasionally loses fights he should win (aaron derrow?, kyle jensen?)

**bjpenn85** · 10-18-12, 04:39 PM

nah, in what way do you see him win? im a good fade when it comes to bellator picks, so maybe you should try at +150

**Kaladarus** · 10-18-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Fragoel2

I'm the only one who likes Nazare over Tirloni?

Playing this small right now may adjust a little later. I think Nazare has a good shot here.

**CannedGoods** · 10-18-12, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

have to respectfully disagree with this statement. imo he loses the fights he should lose (chris clements, aoki, mad dog madadi, carey vernier, quinn mulhern) and occasionally loses fights he should win (aaron derrow?, kyle jensen?)

That's how I see it too. I just don't know if Sarnavskiy is truly "better" than the current Clementi. He's been dominant, but only over no-namers. I'd feel much more comfortable if he had already beat someone like Clementi and was now fighting Clementi, but I guess that's why they call it gambling.

Thinking about risking 2.5k to win 1k. I can't actually afford to lose the 2.5k, I just could really use 1000 bucks right now. I almost did it on Alvarez last week but passed...then passed on Maia...then passed on Nog because I said if I was gonna do it I woulda done it on the cheaper odds of Maia. Now I'm regretting all of those decisions lol.

Just don't want to do anything rash because of the past but everything points to Sarnavskiy by KO/TKO.

**bjpenn85** · 10-18-12, 07:24 PM

should never lay juice in mma like that. Eventually you will lose big time, several times in a row, that doesnt work very well playing those types of lines. Betting on fighters making their first step up in competition is also risky type of bets i for one have experienced too often being on the losing end. Like you said, its gambling. At evens or + ok, but not at that price. He may win a by KO, but who knows.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-18-12, 09:18 PM

Took held small.

Think tirloni is gonna own nazare, the guy is really underrated imo and have some lethal stand up and jitz...Don't have the funds to risk that though at -175, hoped it'd be closer to evens.

Also agree with others and think there is small value on clementi if he continues to grow as a dog.

Should be a fun card with some prospects.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-12, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by CannedGoods

Thinking about risking 2.5k to win 1k. I can't actually afford to lose the 2.5k, I just could really use 1000 bucks right now.

Think long, think wrong. Put it all in on the Russian Fighter you likley don't know anything about. I heard he's a lock.

**gabe** · 10-19-12, 04:32 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Think long, think wrong. Put it all in on the Russian Fighter you likley don't know anything about. I heard he's a lock.

Every time you say something like this, the guy you're implying will lose ends up winning.

**CannedGoods** · 10-19-12, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Think long, think wrong. Put it all in on the Russian Fighter you likley don't know anything about. I heard he's a lock.

Lol while I appreciate the sarcasm, I have done quite a bit of research. Sarnavskiy should win. Do I think he should be a -300 fave? No. I just really need some cash atm. I've been debating all week whether I should just do it or wait for a better opportunity. Beginning to lean towards the latter now...fml haha.

**DirtyX** · 10-19-12, 11:19 AM

That is not a wise move man, I am telling you. To lay that kind of $$$ down and not have the ability to pay it back or lose it at all is just asking to get owned. There are no

in MMA, and I would strongly advise against you betting that amount at those odds.

**DirtyX** · 10-19-12, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

Took held small.

Think tirloni is gonna own nazare, the guy is really underrated imo and have some lethal stand up and jitz...Don't have the funds to risk that though at -175, hoped it'd be closer to evens.

Also agree with others and think there is small value on clementi if he continues to grow as a dog.

Should be a fun card with some prospects.

You gonna be in town this weekend big dog? Damn I am thinking of betting on Held also, but every time I follow you I lose my ass!!! haha, penetrating WildWings last weekend... meh.. Anyways, I tried calling you last night, hit me up when you see this. Later nucca..

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-12, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Every time you say something like this, the guy you're implying will lose ends up winning.

I didn't imply anyone would lose. -250 favorites lose about 31% of the time. If you really NEED $1,000 then you shouldn't be staking $2,500 on ANYTHING. You probably NEED to get a job.

**DirtyX** · 10-19-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I didn't imply anyone would lose. -250 favorites lose about 31% of the time. If you really NEED $1,000 then you shouldn't be staking $2,500 on ANYTHING. You probably NEED to get a job.

YUP

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-19-12, 01:26 PM

I think Sarnavskiy will win he has all the tools to win the fight but rich clementi tends to pull tricks out of a hat so risking that much money is just too much... The most I would risk is 250 bucks. Sarnavskiy's caliber of opponents so far have been relatively weak compared to the North American talent pool. I still think he has much more skill than Clementi and he should own him but you never know when you have guys fighting in foreign territory.

**omalley21** · 10-19-12, 02:52 PM

Sarnivskiy won't shoot into a guillotine like campos did. Clementi isn't Wagney Fabiano so its not like hes gonna get insta-subbed. Tiger just isn't as good as the hype, with Erick Silva fresh in my mind its scary to lay the chalk. But clementi isn't fitch either so I'm letting it ride. I'm gonna take Held also.

**sideloaded** · 10-19-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

-250 favorites lose about 31% of the time.

u need to recheck your numbers because this isnt true for bellator favs at -250. I would also adjust the numbers to when when nick kalikas started releasing the bellator lines.

EDIT: not trying to be a dick, but this doesnt match what I got. ive been scraping bellator lines for only a year and half.

**Thor4140** · 10-19-12, 06:10 PM

Date: Oct 19, 2012

Location: Reading, Pennsylvania
Venue: Reading Eagle Theater in the Sovereign Center
Broadcast: MTV2 and Spike.com

MAIN CARD (MTV2, 8 p.m. ET)

Rich Clementi vs. Alexander "Tiger" Sarnavskiy - lightweight-tourney opening round
Rene Nazare vs. Ricardo Tirloni - lightweight-tourney opening round
Marcin Held vs. Murad Machaev - lightweight-tourney opening round
Dave Jansen vs. Magomed Saadulaev - lightweight-tourney opening round

[/QUOTE]

take note Gabriel

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-19-12, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

You gonna be in town this weekend big dog? Damn I am thinking of betting on Held also, but every time I follow you I lose my ass!!! haha, penetrating WildWings last weekend... meh.. Anyways, I tried calling you last night, hit me up when you see this. Later nucca..

haha, don't be bitter you lost your ass last weekend and followed me on that last losing play, should have followed me on jason and fitch and you'd of cashed, lil nut. Nah I'll be out here sleeping in and watching tv at my house all day, been a while since I've done that and I'm looking forward to it...Feel better you sickly dickk.

Got 60 to win 52 on held (-115) and 15 to win 51 on clementi (+345).

GL tonight gents, think I might regret not going huge on held (but then again I thought the same last weekend with madadi and I got royally screwed outta that one!!). Cheers

**PunisherIND** · 10-19-12, 07:21 PM

great first fight. congrats tirloni backers. that was a nice finish.

**Grabaka** · 10-19-12, 07:27 PM

......

**PunisherIND** · 10-19-12, 07:29 PM

sarnavskiy up to -500. lot of steam on held and saadulaev also.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-19-12, 07:52 PM

Machaev has no gas tank sloppy ass striking too, the combat sambo striking they teach them is nasty

3rd round will decide the fight Machaev looks tired

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-19-12, 07:58 PM

These guys are terrible i'm confident i could knock both these guys out

I would score that fight a draw no one won that fight

**gabe** · 10-19-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I didn't imply anyone would lose. -250 favorites lose about 31% of the time. If you really NEED $1,000 then you shouldn't be staking $2,500 on ANYTHING. You probably NEED to get a job.

-450 now

you're right, though. but gettin' a job ain't easy, speaking from experience.

**gabe** · 10-19-12, 08:03 PM

lots of steam on MAGOMED SAADULAEV? good to hear. i just went all in on him....

i'm all in like scotty nguyen!!!

**Grabaka** · 10-19-12, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by gabe

lots of steam on MAGOMED SAADULAEV? good to hear. i just went all in on him....

i'm all in like scotty nguyen!!!

What do you mean Gabers? sarcasm? big lock?