Sanford MMA/Boxing betting

NunyaBidness · 11-10-12, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

Says a lot about you

A) That I'm one of the few gamblers who realizes we're out against each other, not against the bookie. My gains require someone elses losses.

or

B) That I have schadenfreude for anonymous internet users.

MD · 11-10-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

A) That I'm one of the few gamblers who realizes we're out against each other, not against the bookie. My gains require someone elses losses.

Your point is correct, but I think that's an over-simplification.

MMAbetMASTA · 11-10-12, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

Another profitable night?

I'm sure he just forgot to post that last minute hedge that saved his night...

NunyaBidness · 11-10-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by MD

Your point is correct, but I think that's an over-simplification.

Obviously it is an oversimplification, but I let it stand because

A) I was being a dick.

and

B) Anyone who understands what I'm saying knows its an oversimplification, while the morons who 'pick winnerz' and 'tail' and 'put it in a parlay' and then 'hedge' that same parlay are penetrating hopeless anyway so there is no point explaining anything in detail.

and

C) I have to poop.

MD · 11-10-12, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Obviously it is an oversimplification, but I let it stand because

A) I was being a dick.

and

B) Anyone who understands what I'm saying knows its an oversimplification, while the morons who 'pick winnerz' and 'tail' and 'put it in a parlay' and then 'hedge' that same parlay are penetrating hopeless anyway so there is no point explaining anything in detail.

and

C) I have to poop.

Fair point. What's your stance towards hedging parlays? Specifically why you're against it. I saw you mention it in another thread (sarcastically); I wanted to ask, but I figured the post was tongue-in-cheek enough that the guy you directed it at may not notice you were being sarcastic (I believe you said "Smart play!"), so I thought I wouldn't ruin the joke.

I'm aware it's a bad play in general terms, but I'm not sure of the math behind it.

NunyaBidness · 11-10-12, 09:47 PM

I've posted the math behind it in the past. Some combination of googling "NunyaBidness parlay hedge stupid penetrate site:forum.sbrforum.com" should probably pull it up.

Basically you're paying the juice twice.

It can occasionally be correct to do it, but it would involve something like massive line movement, sudden decrease in bankroll, or new information.

Doing something like making a 3 team parlay and then hedging the last leg is straight up retarded. Everytime you do that you should realize that you would've made more money if you had just made a 2 team parlay instead.

JSanford · 11-17-12, 04:14 PM

UFC 154 bets are in:

Stout 1.8u to win 1u

Diabete 1.5u to win .9u

Elkins 1u to win .9u

Dos Anjos 1.9u to win 1u

Kampmann 3u to win 3u

Carvalho/Cote 1.5 u to win 1.1u

JSanford · 11-17-12, 05:01 PM

Also Broner 1u u9.5

JSanford · 11-17-12, 11:56 PM

Eh just a small profit on the night. Kampmann KO really ruined it. It was a bad stoppage though, he was already recovered when the ref jumped in.

JSanford · 11-24-12, 07:58 PM

Berto/Guerrero o9.5 3u

Mercersux · 11-24-12, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

Berto/Guerrero o9.5 3u

Little on the juicy side but should cash easy.

JSanford · 11-24-12, 09:33 PM

I'm leaning Guerrero in an upset but not enough to bet him.

Mercersux · 11-24-12, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

I'm leaning Guerrero in an upset but not enough to bet him.

Definitely think Guerrero is the better technical boxer of the two. If he can limit Berto's power punches and outbox him for twelve rounds then all is good. That's thing thing though, I'm having a hard time seeing Guerrero withstand power shots. Especially the way he was getting hit Aydin. You could tell even in that fight those were taking a serious toll. If Aydin, a sloppy fighter, can land shot you know a better boxer in Berto has a chance too. I still see the over hitting but those late rounds could be a ride depending on What type of work Berto gets done early on. GL regardless man.

woodsyallin · 11-24-12, 10:38 PM

rollin with berto

JSanford · 11-24-12, 11:46 PM

Wish I had the balls to put something down on Guerrero.

JSanford · 11-30-12, 08:52 PM

Lyman Good 1u

In the back of my mind I know he could very easily lose this fight. Probably shouldn't even bet this fight. He does have superior cardio and grappling so i'm hoping he fights smart.

Mercersux · 11-30-12, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

Lyman Good 1u

In the back of my mind I know he could very easily lose this fight. Probably shouldn't even bet this fight. He does have superior cardio and grappling so i'm hoping he fights smart.

Good has this. No worries. Koreshkov has a way to win but don't see him winning.

JSanford · 12-01-12, 12:18 AM

He would have won if he would have kept the back in the third instead of being sloppy. OH well, I'm gonna cash big on Cotto-Trout o9.5

JSanford · 12-01-12, 07:37 PM

Eh, on second thought I'm just gonna leave this one alone like I should have done last night. Not getting the price I want on o9.5 and think the fight can go either way.

JSanford · 12-08-12, 01:08 PM

UFC FOX 5 bets:

Gustaffson/Siver parlay 1.5u to win 1.3

Martinez 1u to win 1.4u

Swick 2u to win 1.1u

Penn 1u to win 2.1u

Stephens 2u to win 1.1u

Gonna wait to see how my bets play out but if all goes well I'm thinking of putting down 10u on Henderson, will wait until the last minute to bet this. Might even go 15

Same with the Pac/MArquez fight. Not sure what I'm gonna lay yet but thinking between 5-10 units on o10.5 rounds

JSanford · 12-08-12, 08:33 PM

Henderson 17u to win 10u

Pac/Marquez o10.5 13u to win 6u

Beelzebubzy · 12-08-12, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

Henderson 17u to win 10u

Pac/Marquez o10.5 13u to win 6u

tilting?

JSanford · 12-08-12, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

tilting?

Never

Said earlier I was gonna go big on those plays. Just added a few more units on. When you are a constant winner, it's almost like a freeroll.

JSanford · 12-08-12, 10:51 PM

Marquez 1u to win 1.8

Marquez decision 1u to win 3

Brian891 · 12-09-12, 12:47 AM

wow. boxing need more fights like this. 2 pitbulls with heart goin at it.

Brian891 · 12-09-12, 01:00 AM

nice win sanford.

JSanford · 12-09-12, 01:11 AM

^another classless moron.

Took a loss tonight but still up pretty well for the year. Need to sharpen up though. Not happy with the plays I made tonight.

Vaughany · 12-09-12, 06:46 AM

why is he classless? ISnt he congratulating you on your Marquez play

JSanford · 12-09-12, 04:52 PM

I thought he was mocking me for losing on the night. My mistake and apologies if not.

JSanford · 12-09-12, 05:41 PM

Wouldn't have been my only bad read on the night...

JSanford · 12-14-12, 04:01 PM

After a nice profit off of UFC on Fox 5 I am looking to keep the ball rolling

Pearson 1.5u to win 1.3

Fletcher 1.2 to win 1.0

Lombard 2.1u to win 1u

Lombard/Pierce/Pokrajac 1.5 to win 2.2

MD · 12-14-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by JSanford

After a nice profit off of UFC on Fox 5 I am looking to keep the ball rolling

Sarcasm?

Crassus · 12-14-12, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by MD

Sarcasm?

He actually did make a fair amount given the Henderson play.

MD · 12-14-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

He actually did make a fair amount given the Henderson play.

If you're only counting his UFC wagers and not his boxing wagers from the same night, then sure. Considering he said he wanted to "keep the ball rolling", though, that wouldn't make sense, as his last event (from which the trajectory of the ball is to be determined) was boxing, and he lost on it.

JSanford · 12-14-12, 05:46 PM

Yes just meant for UFC betting which is my speciality and why I am known as the resident pro MMA bettor here. Boxing is just a sidejob and I made an error by laying that much juice. Even though I did pick the correct winner and have called the last 3 upsets in Boxing.