Silva in Round 1 at +155
tis my play
tis my play
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I'll have a 3 or 4 unit UNDERDOG wager for this card...
Waiting for weighins. Will post a video for this one.Comment -
if bigday wants to be on a good wrestler, it should be maia, not story.Comment -
Agreed. Don't see a way to play Story unless it is just a fade against Maia. Standing Maia could easily still win. Maia can take Story down perhaps ( I mean if he can trip Chael to the floor he can trip Story) On the ground he can easily sub him. And if all else fail it is still in Brazil so Maia could get some home cooking.
As for Fitch, we all have been through that a few time on this board.Comment -
Maldonado wins by TKO/KO* +1050
Teixeira wins by submission* +172
Prado wins by TKO/KO* +575
Davis wins by submission* +170
Maia wins by submission* +300Comment -
Total submissions on card over 2½* +100Comment -
If you like Bonnar/Silva won't go distance at -300, you should LOVE Silva -8.5 -350Comment -
Maia by sub was -370 and I got it. What a steal.
At the end of the day he could sub anyone at 170. And Story is an average fighter.Comment -
I thought Nog looked terrible at the weigh ins. The worst i ever saw himComment -
First time paying the juice on favs in a while, been playing mostly dogs as of late and its been paying off for the most part, hopefuly the change in trend doesn't hurt me too bad here.
Also waiting on the gambino line, after cashing elkins agaisnt diego I think gambino has a similar style with much better hands so there is def upset value imo.88052222-1 10/12/2012 2:20 PM Money Line 78.50 50.00 Other Sports - 24096 D Maia -157 for Game 88052557-1 10/12/2012 2:25 PM Money Line 142.50 50.00 Other Sports - 24100 R Bezerra -285 for Game
Tempted to hit reza as I see a lot of you are on... How is his sub defense and is marcelo's jitz really that good?
GL vatos
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damn trinaldo is big as hell... I think tibau has met his match with regard to size... Love me some tibau though, not touching any plays but hoping he gets the W (especially after that horrible last fight and BS decision)... WAR TIBAU!!!Comment -
i think herman by ko hedged with nog by sub is the only way to play that fight.Comment -
damn jason's line dropped a lot last night, some people taking sicilia... Starting to be a bit worried about paying that juice on mariano... I just hope sicilia isn't too big for him, but stylisitically I think this is a nightmare match up for sam and that's why I thought it was worth the juice, but considering his size more and his big punching power in both the 1st and 2nd round I'm a little scared
Sitting on the reza and gambino lines, gonna just wait and hope they continue to get better.
GL today, gents!!
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Am I the only one that thinks value is in Silva by Dec? Got some at +419 earlier this week.Comment -
Gonna play Fitch and Maia... and maybe Prado KO/TKO (+545)
With Fitch, it's tough to say - is this a case where we should be recognizing a fighter has peaked and get value on his decline since the transformation happens so abruptly? For me, I'm not in that boat, but this fight will be very telling in that respect. Let's face it -- Fitch is fighting for his UFC career here, you know Uncle Dana will cut him after a draw / loss / loss, so fighting on enemy soil, I'm expecting a headstrong gameplan from John boy - his typical grind it out bs; keeping standup engagement to a minimum... And if Fitch gets steamrolled, I'll just chime in after the fights (like a pro bettor) and say I hedged with some live bet prop to negate any potential losses.
Maia's a guy I have trouble backing as he's so flakey with his fawkin' strategy. So I'm leaning on his last fight with Stun Gun here, and hoping Demian has abandoned the K1 Maia moniker in favor of the slithery sub specialist moniker we all once knew and loved. We know two things about Rick Story - he's tough as a box of nails, and he's about as smart as... a box of nails. If Maia drops to Story's level and decides to play K1 Maia, I hope Story gets him with a bunch of body shots and breaks his damn ribs... I'm making my play counting on Maia to tie Story up and get things to the ground for a sub sooner than later. Considering just playing Maia sub prop.
Also backing Glover, Rony Jason, Madadi - small plays.
Want to fade Herman, but the unveiling of Pig Nog at the weigh-ins has me no-playing that fight.
I've backed off of Cane and am no-playing that one as well.
I'll check in after the event to let everyone know how easy this card was to call and to make money.
GL ladies.Comment -
Erik Silva + Drinaldo
Nog + Maia
Drinaldo single bet
Nog never had a good physique, he's always been pudgy looking it doesn't affect his performance, he comes in and handles it and it's not like he's going up against someone that likes to fight aggressive so the pace of the fight won't be set by Herman.Comment -
True, Nog has never had a Duffee-esque physique, but he just looked like he's been taking advantage of Spider's Burger King endorsement... and granted he did take this fight on short notice, so it's probably nothing, but I'm just staying away. I am rooting for Nog though. GLComment -
Im on
Joey Gambino
Wagner Prado (small)
Dave Herman (small)
Trinaldo
Bonner (small for fun)
Golver, E Silva, Maia
Maia, Jason, Cane
Silva/Fitch under 2.5
GL tonight guys!Comment -
taking shots with some of the undercard guys
Sam Sicilia wins KO of the Night +3500
Francisco Trinaldo wins KO of the Night +3000
Diego Brandao wins KO of the Night +3000
Luiz Cané wins KO of the Night +2500
Sergio Moraes wins SUB of the Night +2000
Cristiano Marcello wins SUB of the Night +3000Comment -
Adding this...88092115-1 10/13/2012 5:51 PM Money Line 185.00 100.00 Other Sports - 24124 R Madadi -185 for Game Comment -
Some good ones there bro...might play Brandao oneComment
