Ufc 153

[Rubber Guard]

Only thing I'm bitter about is Silva is the favorite. I figured a name like Fitch would have at least gotten Silva to plus money. But a lot of people know whats up here.

V, any prediction on line movement closer to the fight? Do Brazilians usually get bet on Brazilian cards? Fitch's name get him bet?

[Beelzebubzy]

The overrated boxing of Fabio Maldonado:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/10/7...abio-maldonado

Great article there

[Vaughany]

Only thing I'm bitter about is Silva is the favorite. I figured a name like Fitch would have at least gotten Silva to plus money. But a lot of people know whats up here.

V, any prediction on line movement closer to the fight? Do Brazilians usually get bet on Brazilian cards? Fitch's name get him bet?

I imagine it will fluctuate a lot this week but ultimately I guess Fitch will end up at +110 to +130 range due to home advantage

[Beelzebubzy]

Damn Fitch is 34. Might have to pull the trigger on the up and comer

[Vaughany]

Damn Fitch is 34. Might have to pull the trigger on the up and comer

yeah dude is getting on, I think he definitely hit his peak around time he fought GSP or 2009/10

[GigaOuts]

I imagine it will fluctuate a lot this week but ultimately I guess Fitch will end up at +110 to +130 range due to home advantage

Someone at sherdog said Fitch is at +120 on skybet or paddy, not sure. Anyone can confirm? +113 at sportbet already, would be nice to have a sportbet account when lines open. I am not a expert in line movement but Fitch poor performance in the first 2 round against BJ Penn and a 12 sec ko lost last fight (casual fan likely recall, also recall Silva quick finished). I say line will move to +140 - +150 on 5Dimes or pinnacle.

[Vaughany]

yeah +120 at skybet

[rocky16]

I played Story and Erick Silva. I think Fitch is at the end and he's going to get worked here. I think Story grinds Maia, and his questionable cardio, out for a UD.

[Hannibal]

The overrated boxing of Fabio Maldonado:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/10/7...abio-maldonado

i love these jack slack articles, but i dont think this one is entirely accurate
He rags on Fabio for constantly jabbing with his head upright but he neglects to mention that Maldonado does one of the most unique things in this sport with his jab - That is jabbing and parrying with his other hand at the same time.
Often when he throws his left jab, he will simultaneously throw out his right hand in a parrying motion to protect what comes at his face.
He still gets hit in the face a lot! but most of those are partially blocked so he can eat them all day

[Vaughany]

i love these jack slack articles, but i dont think this one is entirely accurate
He rags on Fabio for constantly jabbing with his head upright but he neglects to mention that Maldonado does one of the most unique things in this sport with his jab - That is jabbing and parrying with his other hand at the same time.
Often when he throws his left jab, he will simultaneously throw out his right hand in a parrying motion to protect what comes at his face.
He still gets hit in the face a lot! but most of those are partially blocked so he can eat them all day

yeah, u have to bare in mind tht this guy is analyzing from a pure boxing perspective

[Thor4140]

[IMG]<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J_64cRo0lcY?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/IMG]

[Thor4140]

Immediately after the Silva match Rogan can tell us what a tremendous fighter Silva is, after trying to sell us this garbage in the clip.

[Rubber Guard]

Is +125 on Phil and Prado go to a dec. a good bet?

My logic:

Phil beats a 22 year old Gustaf by anaconda when Gustaf didn't even know what an anaconda is. there are no blacks in swedan. He tied Boetsch's arm behind his back and called it the mr. woderful. Couldn't sub Rodney Wallace or Stann. In short I think Phil's submission skills are overrated. Obviously being a wrestler with decent length arms will help in pulling off chokes, but his actual Jitz is still average.

Prado is no guru. From what I read he is at least a blue belt same as Phil and is 24 years old. So he isn't clueless either. But aside from Phil's sub game being a tad overrated, I think he has an even lesser chance of subbing a Brazilian in Brazil.

So. You have a wrestler who was -650 vs. the same fighter a few months ago. Now is -350. He most likely wins by decision if anything as his striking is crappy and his BJJ game is still in its infant stages. Assuming Phil wins, wouldn't you rather take your chances at +125 on a decision where you can even win if Prado gets lucky on Brazilian cards. Over -350 thinking Phil may sub this guy?

+125 is nice for a guy who was just -650 and who isn't really a finisher.

I was rooting for Prado hard in the last fight. And he was the one pushing forward. Just being in there had to boost his confidence a little. And now fighting in Brazil? So I do think the big drop in odds is justified. But I just think it is Prado KO or a Phil decision here.

[Vaughany]

Is +125 on Phil and Prado go to a dec. a good bet?

My logic:

Phil beats a 22 year old Gustaf by anaconda when Gustaf didn't even know what an anaconda is. there are no blacks in swedan. He tied Boetsch's arm behind his back and called it the mr. woderful. Couldn't sub Rodney Wallace or Stann. In short I think Phil's submission skills are overrated. Obviously being a wrestler with decent length arms will help in pulling off chokes, but his actual Jitz is still average.

Prado is no guru. From what I read he is at least a blue belt same as Phil and is 24 years old. So he isn't clueless either. But aside from Phil's sub game being a tad overrated, I think he has an even lesser chance of subbing a Brazilian in Brazil.

So. You have a wrestler who was -650 vs. the same fighter a few months ago. Now is -350. He most likely wins by decision if anything as his striking is crappy and his BJJ game is still in its infant stages. Assuming Phil wins, wouldn't you rather take your chances at +125 on a decision where you can even win if Prado gets lucky on Brazilian cards. Over -350 thinking Phil may sub this guy?

+125 is nice for a guy who was just -650 and who isn't really a finisher.

I was rooting for Prado hard in the last fight. And he was the one pushing forward. Just being in there had to boost his confidence a little. And now fighting in Brazil? So I do think the big drop in odds is justified. But I just think it is Prado KO or a Phil decision here.

Not when you may be able to get Davis by decision at +150 or something...be shocked if he wins a decision

[Rubber Guard]

Not when you may be able to get Davis by decision at +150 or something...be shocked if he wins a decision

Be shocked if who won a decision? Prado?

Yea, me too. But if he nails Phil a few times and wins the "damage war" and Phil clearly wins the fight with a lot of TDs and control some may still score it for Prado. Maybe I am overrating the Brazilian angle but, who knows. Phil won't land much standing. It won't look sexy. If they came out with those Phil by dec odds they wouldn't be much better at +140 or +150. I think the 15-20 is worth the off chance Prado steal it. Think Lil Nog fight with a few more hard shots coming from teh BRazilian.

Also, I am trying to say I think this line is off as I think it just came out. I think it may be closer to -110 for by decision while Phil by dec may end up at +125 anyway...

[Vaughany]

Be shocked if who won a decision? Prado?

Yea, me too. But if he nails Phil a few times and wins the "damage war" and Phil clearly wins the fight with a lot of TDs and control some may still score it for Prado. Maybe I am overrating the Brazilian angle but, who knows. Phil won't land much standing. It won't look sexy. If they came out with those Phil by dec odds they wouldn't be much better at +140 or +150. I think the 15-20 is worth the off chance Prado steal it. Think Lil Nog fight with a few more hard shots coming from teh BRazilian.

Also, I am also trying to say I think this line is off as I think it just came out. I think it may be closer to -110 for by decision while Phil by dec may end up at +125 anyway...

yeah Prado sorry. and yes you could be right, sometimes it is best to take the distance prop when it comes out like now, as Fighter X by decision can end up being worse (which could well happen with this one as you point out)

[Thor4140]

I thought the first fight was very even or a nod to Prado. -350? Wow

[Educ8d Degener8]

I thought the first fight was very even or a nod to Prado. -350? Wow

Yeah, all I remember is Mr Wonderful looking garbage in that one...

[Rubber Guard]

He didn't look like garbage. But he defiantly wasn't the one moving forward. We all know his striking sucks, but he didn't try to wrestle. Prado looked confident in his skills and TDD, getting back up, guard, or all of it. He came forward looking to throw. Not much happened though. So who knows. I think it helps both fighters. Phil couldn't find a Prado fight to watch. Prado had never fought out of Brazil. Phil will look to shoot early. Prado will be looking to be the aggressor again and ready to put it all out there in Brazil.


The better bets are the props. Betting this straight is tough. I think the line is pretty on.

[Educ8d Degener8]

He didn't look like garbage. But he defiantly wasn't the one moving forward. We all know his striking sucks, but he didn't try to wrestle. Prado looked confident in his skills and TDD, getting back up, guard, or all of it. He came forward looking to throw. Not much happened though. So who knows. I think it helps both fighters. Phil couldn't find a Prado fight to watch. Prado had never fought out of Brazil. Phil will look to shoot early. Prado will be looking to be the aggressor again and ready to put it all out there in Brazil.

The better bets are the props. Betting this straight is tough. I think the line is pretty on.

Agree... lol, by "garbage", I meant Phil wasn't having luck with his wrestling. Definitely think he shoots early here - he doesn't like getting hit in the face... like many wrasslers.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I'm actually scared for Bonnar the Brazilians over there might easily mistake him for Sonnen, Bonnar could pass as Sonnens body double

[Rubber Guard]

I've always thought Phil was overrated. But he can win a lot of fights just by strength, athleticism, and wrestling. His wrestling hasn't even looked that great in MMA. Very good, but not up to par with what his college career indicated. Lil Nog stuffed something like 7 consecutive attempts. He go straight tooled by Rashad, which is usually no thing. But He is supposed to be a very good wrestler like Rashad. He certainly has the physical tools.

[Crassus]

Agree... lol, by "garbage", I meant Phil wasn't having luck with his wrestling. Definitely think he shoots early here - he doesn't like getting hit in the face... like many wrasslers.

Did Phil even try a takedown?

[Vaughany]

Ed Soares thinks Anderson's odds are silly!

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/toe-to-toe-with-trigg-manager-ed-soares-blasts-bookies-for-anderson-silvas-huge-odds-advantage/

[Beelzebubzy]

Ed Soares thinks Anderson's odds are silly!
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/t...dds-advantage/

Ed soares lies more than Dana or he could show me his ticket on Bonnar

[Broxbomber]

First post. I just started looking at this website and people seem to be knowledgeable and don't seem to be trolling.

Anderson Silva vs Bonnar - Silva to win by decision (+350) or fight to go to decision (+320).

I am thinking about going with "fight to go to decision @ +320". I am hoping that somehow Bonnar is durable enough to go the distance. I believe this fight is only a 3 round fight.

Any thoughts on these odds? I don't see any other value for this fight.

[Vaughany]

Welcome bomber! And yes, I may play tht as well as Glover by decision at +210 and hope one of the two hit due to them both facing very durable opponents!

[v1y]

I thought the first fight was very even or a nod to Prado. -350? Wow

the first fight was 1 minute long. are you kidding?

[DirtyX]

First post. I just started looking at this website and people seem to be knowledgeable and don't seem to be trolling.

Anderson Silva vs Bonnar - Silva to win by decision (+350) or fight to go to decision (+320).

I am thinking about going with "fight to go to decision @ +320". I am hoping that somehow Bonnar is durable enough to go the distance. I believe this fight is only a 3 round fight.

Any thoughts on these odds? I don't see any other value for this fight.

Main event... Five rounds right?

[Thor4140]

the first fight was 1 minute long. are you kidding?

It was almost a minute and a half and if u can't get a read on what is going on then learn to watch a little closer. You know what Davis is gonna do and he wasn't doing anything close to dominating with his style. I haven't seen one guy on Davis at those odds so they must have seen what i saw because those odds are ridiculous.

[GunShard]

Damn Fitch is 34. Might have to pull the trigger on the up and comer

I will bet on Erick Silva, one of the reasons the age advantage. Fitch peaked years ago, Silva is starting to peak.

The same reason why I bet on Barao to defeat Faber. Faber peaked in the WEC, he seems to be weaker in the UFC than years ago in the WEC.

[Crassus]

It was almost a minute and a half and if u can't get a read on what is going on then learn to watch a little closer. You know what Davis is gonna do and he wasn't doing anything close to dominating with his style. I haven't seen one guy on Davis at those odds so they must have seen what i saw because those odds are ridiculous.

Phil Davis at -335, beautiful.

You dick, I was serious haha.

Also, Davis never just shoots the takedown at the bat does he? He usually strikes a bit and then takes the fight to the ground. iirc.

[Broxbomber]

USA today reported it was a 3 round fight back in mid September. I can only guess that it is because it is a short notice / non title fight. I know all main events are typically 5 rounders.

If it was a 5 rounder then I would say a decision is very unlikely.......but in a 3 rounder it has a bit more of a chance. It is still a long shot, but I could see Silva dancing around for the first round, and then Bonnar holding on for dear life for the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[Broxbomber]

USA today reported it was a 3 round fight back in mid September. I can only guess that it is because it is a short notice / non title fight. I know all main events are typically 5 rounders.

If it was a 5 rounder then I would say a decision is very unlikely.......but in a 3 rounder it has a bit more of a chance. It is still a long shot, but I could see Silva dancing around for the first round, and then Bonnar holding on for dear life for the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

This was for DirtyX. Forget to reply with quote.

[rocky16]

USA today reported it was a 3 round fight back in mid September. I can only guess that it is because it is a short notice / non title fight. I know all main events are typically 5 rounders.

If it was a 5 rounder then I would say a decision is very unlikely.......but in a 3 rounder it has a bit more of a chance. It is still a long shot, but I could see Silva dancing around for the first round, and then Bonnar holding on for dear life for the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Yup its 3 rounds because of the short notice nature of the fight. This was discussed when the UFC announced all main events would be 5 rounds. Not sure whats confusing about it to people.