Ufc 153

[ShotgunRua]

True, Fabio's screwed wherever this goes I think.

[Mercersux]

I'd have to go back and watch that Kingsbury-Maldonado fight to remember all of it but I think your right about Kingsbury getting the win for the takedowns/control. I do remember Kingsbury being seriously messed up from the damage he was taking from Maldonado's striking though. Just one of the pitfalls of mma judging. I don't recall Kingsbury doing much with his takedowns besides being able to control for some periods of time. On the other hand, Maldonado got in his licks on the feet, they were much more devastating, and it showed. Nevermind Maldonado getting jipped in the Pokrajac decision.I just see Maldonado making a fight out of it and at odds of almost 3-1 on Maldonado, it's very much worth the play.

[Beelzebubzy]

I am huge on Glover here. Kingsbury was able to muscle him around for the fight and steal a decision. Pokrjac also landed some signficant shots too. I think Fabio's best chance is to land a body shot that hurts Glover, however, I think Glover will be able to secure the takedowns if there is a clinch

[Grabaka]

As of now (without watch tape) i cant knock a Maldonado play at +300. If i recall correctly it took KK every ounce of force and grit to get Maldonado to the ground and barely took the fight with just 2 takedowns.
Texeira is kinda bad at wrestling and i think he takes his opponents to the ground by mere brute force. Im not sold yet on Tex easily taking it to the ground and standing up Maldonado is good. I dont think im playing it but certainly not playing Texeira at those odds.

[Fragoel2]

Didnt Kingsbu win tht fight because of takedowns and some brief periods of top control? Surely Glover can get Maldonado to the mat if Kingsbu can

As long as Fabio keeps trading body shots for knees he won't win any decision. Doesn't look good in the eyes of the judges.

[Rubber Guard]

I don't have a lot of high level opponents to base Silva's skills against but he has pretty much wrecked everyone.

Anderson Silva seems to think highly of him.


UFC wouldn't of made this fight if they didn't think Silva belonged in there with Fitch. They want the Brazil fans happy. They don't expect Fitch to be able to lay on him for 3 rounds. Erick Silva is a finisher and Fitch may be gun shy now that he has been KO'd recently. He is going to jab and try to clinch Silva with his head down. Silva will catch him with a knee or something coming in.

I'm only afraid of the cardio. I know Fitch can go 3 good ones if need be, well always be in Fitch fights. But not sure if Silva can match that cardio if he can't put him away. Fitch could out work him in rounds 2 and 3 if Silva blows his wad and doesn't finish.

[TheCalculator]

IMO -- the Silva/Fitch fight is simple.

Either Silva KOs Fitch in the 1st round -- or as Rubber Guard is alluding to, he blows his load gasses and loses the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I'm leaning on Fitch surviving the 1st and winning by decision. Although the fact that it's in Brazil mades that possibility more shaky.

[Jesus Christ]

IMO -- the Silva/Fitch fight is simple.

Either Silva KOs Fitch in the 1st round -- or as Rubber Guard is alluding to, he blows his load gasses and loses the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I'm leaning on Fitch surviving the 1st and winning by decision. Although the fact that it's in Brazil mades that possibility more shaky.

Yup this is what worries me...we saw in Brazil with the Johnson/Belfort fight that the crowd can get real loud when their guy is on his back and it can lead to some atrocious stand ups.

[Thor4140]

Nogueira: Herman is a can. Period. Nog is far better than Herman, the only way he can lose is by a KO in the first round, but that won't happens since Big Nog has a granite chin. Then, as cherry on the pie, Herman gasses out. Hope to get good lines since Nog comes off a loss and a long layoff.

Dude seriously?

[Thor4140]

As of now (without watch tape) i cant knock a Maldonado play at +300. If i recall correctly it took KK every ounce of force and grit to get Maldonado to the ground and barely took the fight with just 2 takedowns.
Texeira is kinda bad at wrestling and i think he takes his opponents to the ground by mere brute force. Im not sold yet on Tex easily taking it to the ground and standing up Maldonado is good. I dont think im playing it but certainly not playing Texeira at those odds.

KK is a stiff

[gabe]

Silva could lose the first round, too. Just because Hendriks got a lucky KO (I had Hendriks in the fight) doesnt mean he has a weak chin now and that silva will put him away. Sure, there's a small-to-decent shot that silva gets the finish, but more than likely it will play out like silva vs Brenneman, except Fitch isn't a pu$$y like Brenneman is. He will keep silva down, and not give up and willingly go into a choke. Brenneman vs silva was one of the worst times I've seen a fighter quit.

[Grabaka]

KK is a stiff

Yes...but i just feel (again without watching any tape yet) Texeira and KK resembles a lot in terms of wrestling. None of them is specially fast nor technical in that department, they usually overpower their opponents and use their size to earn the takedown. Maybe im wrong tho

[DirtyX]

Erick Silva over Fitch at -120 / Maia over Story at -140. Those are my plays. I really like Maia in this match up. Will prob end up making a nice size wager on him. With Silva, I am betting on his youth, hungerness and the fact that this takes place in Brazil. Love betting on the younger, rising stars against older, fading fighters. Torres and McDonald comes to mind, so does Barao vs Faber. Maia is the strongest play on the card so far imo.

[Grabaka]

I have 350 on Erick Silva @ +110 but feeling coldfeet already. Really i started feeling it after Brenneman did as bad in his last fight as with Erick. I might lay a chunk back on Fitch. Come on Fitch.....go +120!

[bogbat]

Fitch is a risky bet at this stage of his career. He is starting to age, coming off a knockout loss, and within the last year has had two serious injuries: a rotator cuff tear, and an ACL tear.

[MD]

I'm big on Story over Maia. Not really worried that everyone else is on Maia, predicting an absolute blowout 30-27 for Story, perhaps even a knockout.

[dww123]

I'm big on Story over Maia. Not really worried that everyone else is on Maia, predicting an absolute blowout 30-27 for Story, perhaps even a knockout.

Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but man, this is just a bad prediction.

[DirtyX]

I'm big on Story over Maia. Not really worried that everyone else is on Maia, predicting an absolute blowout 30-27 for Story, perhaps even a knockout.

Are you being serious? ^

[Hannibal]

i dont know how anyone can be comfortable betting on maia
he is so unreliable
if i was sure he was coming in with a grappling based game, i could bet on him
but you cant rely on him to fight smart. He might feel like banging it out for three rounds and lose a dec

[gabe]

If the Maia who beat Munoz (but not according to the judges, thank god, 'cos i was big on munoz) shows up, then he will win. If the Story who beat Alves shows up, he has a shot, too... but if the story who fought Brenneman shows up, he's screwed.

[GunShard]

Statistically, Erick Silva has a huge edge over Fitch. Anderson Silva over Bonnar as well.

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4074

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4071

[MD]

Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but man, this is just a bad prediction.

Well then I guess I'm about to lose a lot of money and you're about to win a lot of money, because I feel very confident. If that's the case and I end up being wrong, good job, I'll give you props for your success.

If the Maia who beat Munoz (but not according to the judges, thank god, 'cos i was big on munoz) shows up, then he will win. If the Story who beat Kampmann shows up, he has a shot, too... but if the story who fought Brenneman shows up, he's screwed.

Kampmann beat Story pretty handily though, right? I didn't think -anyone- disputed that win.

[gabe]

Well then I guess I'm about to lose a lot of money and you're about to win a lot of money, because I feel very confident. If that's the case and I end up being wrong, good job, I'll give you props for your success.



Kampmann beat Story pretty handily though, right? I didn't think -anyone- disputed that win.

Yeah, I had a big play on Kampmann in that fight. I was big on Story over Alves, too. So far only Story fight I've been wrong on has been vs Brenneman

[Vaughany]

Statistically, Erick Silva has a huge edge over Fitch. Anderson Silva over Bonnar as well.

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4074

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4071

Look at how many fights Erick Silva has had in UFC and who he's fought in comparison to Fitch - not surprising the statistics are like tht

[Vaughany]

If the Maia who beat Munoz (but not according to the judges, thank god, 'cos i was big on munoz) shows up, then he will win. If the Story who beat Kampmann shows up, he has a shot, too... but if the story who fought Brenneman shows up, he's screwed.

Im confused

[gabe]

Im confused

I meant Alves lol

[snufflyjoe]

im not getting the support for maia at all?? this fight is staying on the feet and I dont give a solid edge to either in the striking...coin flip imo

[Vaughany]

im not getting the support for maia at all?? this fight is staying on the feet and I dont give a solid edge to either in the striking...coin flip imo

Maia could trip Story to the mat, Kampmann had success with his trip and body lock takedowns so dont see why Maia cant. If it stays on feet I give the edge to Story as he throws with more power and can take a lot of punishment

[snufflyjoe]

Maia could trip Story to the mat, Kampmann had success with his trip and body lock takedowns so dont see why Maia cant. If it stays on feet I give the edge to Story as he throws with more power and can take a lot of punishment

well i think it comes down to gameplans, if story constantly pressures and keeps going forward(which he often does) Maia could get him down but even if he gets him down I am not confident in Maia getting a sub or keeping Story down.


I can't say a bet on either fighter is dumb but it certainly is a gamble .

[Vaughany]

well i think it comes down to gameplans, if story constantly pressures and keeps going forward(which he often does) Maia could get him down but even if he gets him down I am not confident in Maia getting a sub or keeping Story down.


I can't say a bet on either fighter is dumb but it certainly is a gamble .

yeah no play for me, but if I had to i'd play Story at current line.

[Vaughany]

The overrated boxing of Fabio Maldonado:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/10/7/3468098/ufc-153-judo-chop-the-overrated-boxing-of-fabio-maldonado

[GigaOuts]

Fitch is a risky bet at this stage of his career. He is starting to age, coming off a knockout loss, and within the last year has had two serious injuries: a rotator cuff tear, and an ACL tear.

My though is exactly, I think Fitch is too slow to catch him and if he does Eric is powerful enought to get out. But my only concern is how gass/slow Eric will be after 1 1/2 round.

I really like how Eric Silva re-act after defeating Spaniard. He didn't even celebrated at all, it wasn't even a challenge for him. I have 2.6g on Eric, even with 6g downswing I am confidence with my bet. I only willing to hedge if I get Fitch up to +140

[varkolek]

I haven't watched any footage recently, but from what I remember Story's stand up consists of closing with his opponent, often clinching, and throwing hooks. Clinching with Maia would probably be a mistake. And Maia outstruck Munoz in the first round. But Maia is inconsistent, and almost died when he was fighting Chris Weidman, that was a pretty bad fight, and Maia is cutting weight now so might have worse cardio.

I could be wrong though and Story may be capable of throwing straight punches at range, and I simply can't remember.

[Rubber Guard]

Silva could lose the first round, too. Just because Hendriks got a lucky KO (I had Hendriks in the fight) doesnt mean he has a weak chin now and that silva will put him away. Sure, there's a small-to-decent shot that silva gets the finish, but more than likely it will play out like silva vs Brenneman, except Fitch isn't a pu$$y like Brenneman is. He will keep silva down, and not give up and willingly go into a choke. Brenneman vs silva was one of the worst times I've seen a fighter quit.

He may not have a weak chin exactly. But the guy is almost 35. Do we seriously think Fitch is the same caliber fighter he was 2 or 3 years ago? Injuries, losses, a KO loss, evolution is all against him here. Add in hometown advantage for good measure.

Maybe it is just me. But cards in Brazil produce a lot of Brazilian wins. Vitor AJ? Vitor won. Nog/Schaub? Nog won. Brazilians win in Brazil. At an alarming rate.

Fitch was very effective but overrated.

KO'd by Hendrick. Ass whooped for 2 rounds by old ass 155er Penn until he gassed, DRAW, Penn isn't even a top 10 WW and was way undersized in the fight.

Thiago Alves is the most overrated bum in the UFC. Him and his awesome leg kicks. And t-rex arms. And cardio issues.

Ben Saunders anyone?

Gono?

A close ass fight with Mike Pierce?

That don't impress me much for a guy who was #2 for all that time. Fitch is on the downside of his career. UFC is feeding his name to Silva. Why else would they bump Silva from Brenneman to Fitch like that? LET HIM COOK!

[Vaughany]

He may not have a weak chin exactly. But the guy is almost 35. Do we seriously think Fitch is the same caliber fighter he was 2 or 3 years ago? Injuries, losses, a KO loss, evolution is all against him here. Add in hometown advantage for good measure.

Maybe it is just me. But cards in Brazil produce a lot of Brazilian wins. Vitor AJ? Vitor won. Nog/Schaub? Nog won. Brazilians win in Brazil. At an alarming rate.

Fitch was very effective but overrated.

KO'd by Hendrick. Ass whooped for 2 rounds by old ass 155er Penn until he gassed, DRAW, Penn isn't even a top 10 WW and was way undersized in the fight.

Thiago Alves is the most overrated bum in the UFC. Him and his awesome leg kicks. And t-rex arms. And cardio issues.

Ben Saunders anyone?

Gono?

A close ass fight with Mike Pierce?

That don't impress me much for a guy who was #2 for all that time. Fitch is on the downside of his career. UFC is feeding his name to Silva. Why else would they bump Silva from Brenneman to Fitch like that? LET HIM COOK!

yeah Banha Cane was only brazilian to lose to a non-brazilian on card