MD's €100 challenge

[MD]

Long story short, I've been thinking about my bets lately and come to the conclusion that my edge isn't as big as it used to be. I've been overzealous or reluctant to pull the trigger in a lot of situations, and it's almost entirely because of the amount I've been betting on fights recently. I stopped treating gambling like a game where the objective is the make the most consecutive +EV decisions possible, and let my mindset gradually deteriorate into a semi-degenerate state where I've lost sight of what brought me success in the first place.

To remedy this, I've decided to take a very small portion of my bankroll (€100) and attempt to roll it into as much money as possible in oh, say, a year. I'm financially secure, so the opportunity cost won't affect me too badly. I want to be a crushing player, not just a winning one, and this challenge is a step towards that. I'll be posting my picks and progress for the entirety of this challenge; I'll be playing very aggressively with an almost obsessive amount of research behind each pick, in an attempt to open up as many opportunities for learning and progressing as possible, so expect picks after the weigh-ins for most cards, to allow me the time necessary to finalize my predictions. The goal is to learn and increase my 'capping ability, so the more often I bet, the more of an opportunity I'll have to accomplish this. With that in mind, I'll be playing a lot of lines that I think contain only minor value, and will be as aggressive as I consider efficient, while still retaining BRM. I'll be betting -solely- on MMA for this challenge, also.

In the event that I lose all €100 (which is very possible, given the high variance of this style), I'll stop if I think I've got enough material to learn from, or simply start again if I think I need to.

Dunno if any of you are interested in this, but I figured I might as well post about it since I'm doing it anyway. If anyone is interested in my picks and progress, I'll be happy to post them.

Thanks for reading guys. Best of luck (you'll need it if you bet on Struve).

Picks

UFC ON FUEL TV 5: STRUVE VS. MIOCIC

[Vaughany]

Cool, look forward to it

[MD]

I'm agonizing over the Struve/Miocic fight. "Miocic will KO Struve, 85%" is the first thing to come to mind, but I think that's cheap. I think it's a lazy prediction, not one a good 'capper would make without some serious research, and this bout has a lot more intricacies than that. I think it's a somewhat accurate prediction on paper, but Struve himself is a massive variable. I'm just gonna go ahead and say it; yeah, he's a joke, but the man is extremely talented. His gifts in the cage aren't just his height or his reach, but his unbelievable desire to win, his ability to come back from ridiculous scenarios to mine success from certain failure; in addition, his improvement between fights is superb and his game planning is criminally underrated. He knows what he needs to do to win, regardless of what we think of his desire to rush in and brawl at close range with guys who hit harder than him and have shorter arms than him. Miocic is a good fighter. He's limited, however. He has good-not-great MMA wrestling, very good, though not great, MMA boxing, and, apparently, savage ground and pound. When I play this fight in my head, I see four versions. Two where Struve wins, and two where Miocic wins. I see Struve showing tremendous leaps and bounds in his striking, picking Miocic apart at distance with stinging leg kicks and straight jabs, and frustrating Miocic until he makes a mistake, then locking in an armbar or choke. I can also see Miocic using his superior boxing to get on the inside, tag Struve, and occasionaly take him down and use his superior top-game to stop submissions and unleash brutal ground and pound for a stoppage. The other two possibilities are the easy calls; Struve gets taken down/knocked down and subs Miocic, or Miocic just runs right into Struve swinging leather and KO's him.

The more I think about it, the more I see Miocic as a 65-70% favourite. Maybe less. The less I think about it, the more I see Miocic at around 85%. Be careful with this fight. It's not as simple as it seems, and the variable of Struve's latent talent is huge. I'm not sure where I see the value being in this fight, so I'm going to take the rest of the night to re-watch some footage and try to make a decision before tomorrow afternoon.

[MD]

0-0 Profit: €0.00

Aiight pussies, my bets for this card.

UFC ON FUEL TV 5: STRUVE VS. MIOCIC

Dan Hardy @ -187: €7.50 to win €4
Perceived probability: 88%
EV profit: €3.50

I'll start out with two reasonably large bets. The first is Hardy vs Sadollah, a fight in which I feel that Hardy has practically every advantage possible. His striking technique is superior in almost every area, and his wrestling, although notoriously bad, is still better than Sadollah's. If he avoids the clinch, he has almost nothing to worry about, as Sadollah's power is non-existant. I don't think I can name a UFC welterweight off hand with less KO power than Sadollah. As it is, I'm seriously considering doubling this bet at these odds. 88% may even be considered an insult to Dan Hardy.

Gunnar Nelson @ -275: €11 to win €4
Perceived probability: 92%
EV profit: €3.75

Honestly, this fight is disgusting. So soon after a vicious, vicious knockout loss that should honestly have put him out of action for the rest of the year, Johnson steps in on short notice against Gunnar fu-cking Nelson, of all people. The last time he stepped in on short notice, he tapped to strikes against Amir Sadollah. Amir Sadollah, people. They agreed to fight as a catch-weight, as Johnson had ballooned to, reportedly, 210 lbs; he couldn't even make the catch-weight. Here's the worst case scenario: Johnson knocks Nelson out in round one. Here's the second worst case scenario: Johnson hurts Nelson badly in round one, gasses badly, and gets finished in round two. I'm pretty sure none of you are under any illusions about how this fight will go. This fight is wrong, and no commission should ever have sanctioned it. It's not my job to worry about DaMarques Johnson's health, though; it's my job to make good bets. At -275, I'll pay the juice.

Stipe Miocic by KO @ -150: €6 to win €4
Perceived probability: 70%
EV profit: €3

This €4 thing is a coincidence guys, I swear. Nothing really to say here. I see some mild value on Stipe, that just about justifies a bet of this size.

Dan Hardy, Gunnar Nelson @ +109: €5 to win €5.45
Perceived probability: 81%
EV profit: €4.40

And, just for laughs, a degenerate parlay.

Stipe Miocic by KO, Dan Hardy, Gunnar Nelson, Che Mills, John Hathaway @ +655: €1 to win €6.55
Perceived probability: 35%
EV profit: €2.30

Total stake: €30.50
Potential profit: €24
EV profit: €16.95

Considering a play on Tom Watson, too; I'll post if I finalize it.

[MD]

3-2 Profit: €6.45

Not surprised. Unfortunate, but I'm not surprised. Finished positive, won my major parlay and two of my three big plays. Pretty decent card for me.

[MD]

2-1 Profit: €6.45

(Yes, the above figure is the correct one, I accidentally counted parlays as picks in my last update.)

UFC ON FX 5: BROWNE VS. BIGFOOT

Feeling pretty uncomfortable with my picks on this card for some reason. I have a sense of everything going wrong for me. Oh well.

Travis Browne by KO @ -110: €11 to win €10.
Perceived probability: 75%
EV profit: €7.5

Not much to say about this one. I may be overvaluing Travis Browne a bit, however. He's not a lock, but he deserves to be a favourite. I think the only value in Browne is in the KO line.

Jacob Volkmann @ -200: €10 to win €5.
Perceived probability: 80%
EV profit: €4

Jacob Volkmann has some pretty impressive wrestling. I won't be awfully surprised to see Roller pull it out, but I like Volkmann a lot here. I think the line (and especially the earlier ones) have a lot of value in them.

Michael Johnson @ -110: €5 to win €4.50.
Perceived probability: 65%
EV profit: €2.7

He's finally training properly, he's improving every fight and he's got a lot of drive. Seems to have fixed any cardio issues he may have had, and he's always been a strong wrestler. Castillo peaked quite some time ago. The pick is simple, even if the value isn't particularly high.

Jay Hieron @ +250: €4 to win €10
Perceived probability: 55%
EV profit: €5.5

The fact that I'm the only poster to openly bet on Hieron so far is slightly troubling, but Jake looked half dead to me at the weigh ins, and I think that if he doesn't stop Hieron pretty early, it's going to be a long, long night for him. He could easily get the finish, but against a guy as slick as Jay is, I think that Ellenberger is being extremely overvalued. I don't mind laying a small-moderate on him at these odds.

Travis Browne by KO, Michael Johnson: €2 to win €5.30.
Perceived probability: 45%
EV profit: €2.4

Mike Pierce, Jay Hieron: €1 to win €4.50
Perceived probability: 35%
EV profit: €1.5

Jussier da Silva @ +163: €4 to win €6.5
Perceived probability: 65%
EV profit: €4.2

Easy mode. Jussier's BJJ is amongst the best in the sport, and his transitions are peerless, especially at this weight class. A lot of value here, even if I believe Dodson can certainly win.

Total stake: €37
Potential profit: €45.80
EV profit: €27.80

[Imsmarterthanu]

Man you're wasting your time you're just gonna go up and down you might as well just parlay up teams with other sports find your most confident pick in each sport and spread it out to 3-5 team parlays and bet small like 2 bucks. If you just play mma picks all the time you're going to go up and down especially with such small profit margins.

[MD]

Man you're wasting your time you're just gonna go up and down you might as well just parlay up teams with other sports find your most confident pick in each sport and spread it out to 3-5 team parlays and bet small like 2 bucks. If you just play mma picks all the time you're going to go up and down especially with such small profit margins.

I'm not really trying to turn any kind of real profit, it's more a challenge to see how much I can earn from a €100 starting point from purely MMA betting. I'm not really concerned about the money. I appreciate the tips though, solid advice.

EDIT: updated my post with a play on da Silva.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I see good luck I'm on Travis Browne too hope he pulls through should be a good fight

[MD]

I see good luck I'm on Travis Browne too hope he pulls through should be a good fight

Thanks man. Yeah, I'm hoping Browne manages to pull it off. He seems very focused for this fight, which gives me some confidence.

I was thinking about what you said, and out of curiosity, what did you mean by "going up and down"? I'm just wondering, as it seems that making the correct picks and trying to turn a consistent profit by finishing up on every card would be the correct thing to do for any level of gambler, even one who's starting with such a low base. Do you think that's an incorrect/unprofitable mindset? Would like your opinion if you wouldn't mind.

[Vaughany]

2-1 Profit: €6.45

(Yes, the above figure is the correct one, I accidentally counted parlays as picks in my last update.)

UFC ON FX 5: BROWNE VS. BIGFOOT

Feeling pretty uncomfortable with my picks on this card for some reason. I have a sense of everything going wrong for me. Oh well.

Travis Browne by KO @ -110: €11 to win €10.
Perceived probability: 75%
EV profit: €7.5

Not much to say about this one. I may be overvaluing Travis Browne a bit, however. He's not a lock, but he deserves to be a favourite. I think the only value in Browne is in the KO line.

Jacob Volkmann @ -200: €10 to win €5.
Perceived probability: 80%
EV profit: €4

Jacob Volkmann has some pretty impressive wrestling. I won't be awfully surprised to see Roller pull it out, but I like Volkmann a lot here. I think the line (and especially the earlier ones) have a lot of value in them.

Michael Johnson @ -110: €5 to win €4.50.
Perceived probability: 65%
EV profit: €2.7

He's finally training properly, he's improving every fight and he's got a lot of drive. Seems to have fixed any cardio issues he may have had, and he's always been a strong wrestler. Castillo peaked quite some time ago. The pick is simple, even if the value isn't particularly high.

Jay Hieron @ +250: €4 to win €10
Perceived probability: 55%
EV profit: €5.5

The fact that I'm the only poster to openly bet on Hieron so far is slightly troubling, but Jake looked half dead to me at the weigh ins, and I think that if he doesn't stop Hieron pretty early, it's going to be a long, long night for him. He could easily get the finish, but against a guy as slick as Jay is, I think that Ellenberger is being extremely overvalued. I don't mind laying a small-moderate on him at these odds.

Travis Browne by KO, Michael Johnson: €2 to win €5.30.
Perceived probability: 45%
EV profit: €2.4

Mike Pierce, Jay Hieron: €1 to win €4.50
Perceived probability: 35%
EV profit: €1.5

Jussier da Silva @ +163: €4 to win €6.5
Perceived probability: 65%
EV profit: €4.2

Easy mode. Jussier's BJJ is amongst the best in the sport, and his transitions are peerless, especially at this weight class. A lot of value here, even if I believe Dodson can certainly win.

Total stake: €37
Potential profit: €45.80
EV profit: €27.80

I've got a tiny play on Hieron at +400 from when it was released months ago on paddy power

[Imsmarterthanu]

Thanks man. Yeah, I'm hoping Browne manages to pull it off. He seems very focused for this fight, which gives me some confidence.

I was thinking about what you said, and out of curiosity, what did you mean by "going up and down"? I'm just wondering, as it seems that making the correct picks and trying to turn a consistent profit by finishing up on every card would be the correct thing to do for any level of gambler, even one who's starting with such a low base. Do you think that's an incorrect/unprofitable mindset? Would like your opinion if you wouldn't mind.

Well I mean that laying small bets like 5 dollars to win 4 dollars in a sport like mma you're going to win 4 bucks here then lose 5 there. Mma is such an unpredictable sport you're unlikely going to consistently profit and in the end when you're down a few bucks than what you put in you're only going to try to break even on a slow uphill climb because of the low wagers and profits you'll have to place more amount of bets or up the wager. In any case increasing the chance you lose and/or increasing the amount you lose because you'll have to take more risks with different plays that you would normally never take with a higher wager. We all know what it feels like when we lay out the plans and expect a value but come up negative in the end. It's all riding on a helium balloon and the second it pops we feel like nothing but air then you end up chasing bets just to try to break even.

At least that's been my experience placing small bets you win then you lose win then you lose but you're not making consistent profit because theres no room for laying other bets using the bigger win profits from bigger wages. For instance you won $6.50 on the $30.50 total sum of wagers the last event, that's a profit of 6.5% that's the profit margin so that's the money you put up for the next bets if you want to lay a foundation down where you don't end up down from your bankroll trying to break even. So that's $6.50 that you get to play with for the next time you wanna place bets. Now imagine you started with a bankroll of 1000 dollars and you placed the same bets with a total sum of $305 instead of $30.50 you would have made a profit of 65 dollars now that gives you 65 dollars to play with for the next fights. Giving you a higher profit potential and more room for loss countering.

That's why I always stick to parlaying teams that I'm almost 100 percent sure will win with small wagers that way I could be confident that the system is relying on a strong steady growth it might be slow because of heavy favoritism but at least It's not as rocky as close fights in mma. Boxing is a good one, you find a bunch of these guys that are heavy favorites in boxing and you're set just parlay them together and you'll come out with the same odds as some of the fights in the ufc. Only in boxing the favorites rarely lose, where as in mma the favorites always lose.

[Vaughany]

Nice hits so far

[MD]

4-4 Profit: €-6.05

Welp, that didn't go too well. I didn't seem to get buried as badly as everyone else did, but considering that it's only the second card I've bet on for this challenge and I'm down already, it's a pretty abysmal showing for our friendly neighbourhood eagle. I'm not displeased with how I did, though. I feel like I gave a good account of myself, and the only bet I was on the wrong side of was Formiga over Dodson.

[MD]

4-4 Profit: €-6.05

Really busy at the moment, so I won't be taking long to post these picks, so excuse the promptness. I mostly just want to get them on record before the fight airs; not that it matters much, I'm freerolling this one.

Patricky Freire @ + 280: €20 to win €56.
Eddie Alvarez @ -215: €56 to win €26.

I had a play on another fighter tonight, but it won, and I don't want to be "that guy", so I'm not including that play in the challenge. The main event should be disgustingly good. I'm legitimately excited for it.

[Vaughany]

56 is a large chunk out of EUR100 bankroll!

[MD]

56 is a large chunk out of EUR100 bankroll!

I'm freerolling, though.

Patricky wins, I break even. Alvarez wins, I'm up €6. I'm not actually risking the €56; the riskiest thing I did was bet the original €20 on Patricky. I'm pretty sure everyone here knew those odds were going to drop considerably, though; it was pretty safe.

EDIT: I seriously need to stop confusing the Pitbull brothers with each other.

[Vaughany]

I'm freerolling, though.

Patricio wins, I break even. Alvarez wins, I'm up €6. I'm not actually risking the €56; the riskiest thing I did was bet the original €20 on Patricio. I'm pretty sure everyone here knew those odds were going to drop considerably, though; it was pretty safe.

It's 1:30AM over here...have to excuse me! Shows how much attention I've been paying to the main event when I didnt even figure that they were fighting eachother!

[MD]

5-4 Profit: €-0.05

Well, it's finally happened. My losses are no longer recoupable, and I'm so far in the hole I'm never going to get out.

So... bouncy castles anyone?

[Vaughany]

5-4 Profit: €-0.05

Well, it's finally happened. My losses are no longer recoupable, and I'm so far in the hole I'm never going to get out.

So... bouncy castles anyone?

[MD]

5-4 Profit: €-0.05

UFC 153: SILVA VS. BONNAR

'Evening, ladies.

Joey Gambino @ +150: €8 to win €12.
Perceived probability: 75%
EV profit: €9

My favourite play of the night. I like Gambino a lot, I think he's an excellent prospect, and I'm expecting him to finish Diego in the third, or win a clear decision.

Glover Texiera by submission @ +200 : €4 to win €8.
Perceived probability: 60%
EV profit: €4.80

Bit iffy about this one, not overly confident. There's some decent value here, though, so I'm not too concerned. May just have bet a bit too large.

Rick Story by KO or by decision @ +130: €2.5 to win €3.25.
Perceived probability: 60%
EV profit: €1.95

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by KO @ +450: €2 to win €9, hedged with Dave Herman by KO @ +325: €2 to win €6.40.

Anderson Silva by decision @ +400: €2 to win €8.
Perceived probability: 30%
EV profit: €2.4

I made more plays than I care to count on Erick Silva and Jon Fitch, due to line movement and unexpected prop value. I'll lay them out as best I can.

Erick Silva and Anderson Silva @ -107.5: €10 to win €9.30.
Erick Silva by KO @ +400: €9 to win €36.
Jon Fitch by decision @ +150: €4 to win €6.
Jon Fitch by decision @ +176: €5 to win €8.80.


Total stake: €37.5 (+hedge: €11)
Potential profit: Lots of hedges, so leaving this blank.
EV profit: Lots of hedges, so leaving this blank.

[MD]

Getting this in quick: More $$$ on Gambino at +225.

[MD]

EDIT 2: f-cking terrible maths. This is what my bets look like when you factor in my earlier Rick Story bet:

Rick Story at +130: €28.5 to win €37.05
Demian Maia at -120: €36 to win €30.

Guess I'm freerolling either way. That's me done with math and arbs for the night. I'm just gonna let the rest of my bets ride. May do some straight bets later if I'm feeling a bit better.