glad you edited your original post but that doesn't change the fact that you thought a 20/1 favorite was -20000, which is why you thought i was lying. And can you name this -20000 upset? Or these huge upsets in Europe earlier this year? In any event you are missing the point. I was reponding to your comment that no athletic event should have a -5000 for any reason. It's a ridiculous statement because there are -5000 ALL THE TIME IN SPORTS. Look at tennis lines. the top seed is -10000 in the first round of every major. Are you saying the oddsmakers get it wrong over and over when they set these lines? Are they that foolish? Nope, they're not.
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He really shouldn't have to post any of his answers until you show your work. Please give proof that you have records of every boxing Bookmaker for the past 100 years, and furthermore that a favorite greater than -4200 has never lost.
It should be no trouble for you to post this, as you manage to post that you won a 12 teamer one time at least once a week.Comment -
So, you are saying odds makers do not make mistakes over and over?
You claim to be a professional mma handicapper. If the odds are almost always set right, where do you find your edge? Or do you admit to placing bets without having an edge?
If oddsmakers do not make these mistakes why do 95% of lines in every sport move from opening to close? Which line is the flawless line? The opener, or the closer? Is it somehow both?Comment -
Lol...That happened in June of 2011 and I posted it 1 time earlier this year. I think someone else just reposted it a couple days ago but i have no control of that. As far as the mike tyson thing, just google greatest boxing upsets of all time and it's at the top of the list of evey list. In fact, none of any of the other fights I saw were even close to -4200. If there really was i -20000 who lost, surely it would make the list, no? Or some kind of list, somewhere, or at the very least an article about it if you google boxing upsets. But nothing? nah not likely. So, from my research, Mike Tyson is the biggest boxing upset of all time.Comment -
Honestly i think you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. There is no way you believe that no sporting event should EVER have a -5000 line. You seem way too savvy to follow the other guy on such a ludicrious blanket statement, which is what this actually all about.Comment -
There should be lines valued near -5000 but I haven't personally seen it very often in boxing. Never seen a line even close to that in mma. Maybe the highest line ive ever seen in mma off the top of my head was cyborg vs the asian chick she just fought. You see it more in boxing but not usually unless it's a klistcho. In tennis you can see lines of -10000+ when it's involving the top 5 guys.Comment -
I don't work at Sherdog because their pay was a joke and my betting brought in enough money.
I got de-modded because I was only a mod because I did a writing piece for the site that I needed moderator tools for. I never banned people or deleted threads, etc. Since I quit, there was no reason to be a mod anymore.
I ended up getting banned from the forum because the mods are corrupt as penetrate. I got banned for literally no reason. When you get banned, there is a message from the mod who did it stating why you were banned. For example, too many infractions or being previously banned already. The reason in my ban message was "Go someone else." LOL! The mods openly admitted in a thread that they were gonna ban me for no reason. I don't even care, to be honest. The Sherdog forums are a wasteland made up almost entirely of hyper-aggressive, confrontational morons. SBR is 100x better.Comment -
-5000 implies the player/team is 98% likely to win. -10000 implies 99% likelihood. Those are not realistic probabilities. In boxing, one punch can win a fight. There are also cuts and things liek fluke injuries, etc. There is no way a boxer would fight another boxer 49 times in a row and win all 49, or 100 and win all 99, without fighting poorly/getting injured/suffering a cut/getting caught with a big punch. Similar thing for MMA and other sports. Yes, -5000 and -10000 favorites usually come through, but that is because they are like 80-90% likely, not 98-99%.
If you honestly think any team/player/fighter is 99% likely to win a match, you are not very accurate at estimating probability and/or assessing line value.
Also, Rafael Nadal lost as a -10000 betting favorite to a complete can at Wimbledown this year. You still think he deserved have odds that implied he had a 99% chance to win, though, right?Comment -
Yes. I would say -10000 players lose about 1% of the time. You actually believe -10000 tennis players only win 80 or 90% of the time? And you bring up Nadal. The match John Mcenroe called the biggest upset in tennis history? My guess is you havent been following tennis lines very long if you really think that. But if you do you should go ahead and bet against every -10000 player and you'll make big moneyComment -
And you think if you bet on every -5000 to -10000 player that you'll make money? LOL!
In the early rounds of basically every Tennis tourney, multiple favorites between -3000 and -8000 get upset. Serena -5000, Berdych -6000, Nadal -10000 are just a few from this year alone.
But go ahead, keep betting 5k, 6k or 10k to win just 100 bucks and see how many knee caps you have left by this time next year...Comment -
-5000 is the actual line for this fight, my statistical model told me so. Wheel talk brahs.Comment -
When was the last time a MMA fighter -1000 or greater line lost a fight?
We should dump our bankroll on Anderson Silva to defeat Stephen Bonnar?
There's no way Bonner could defeat Silva, a fighter similar to Silva was Jones. Jones defeated Bonnar easily.Comment -
Fedor wasn't -1000. I still remember ripping that -500 ticket up.Comment -
Penn was damn near -1000 against Edgar the first fight, and Rolles closed around -950 against Beltran per my data. Not -1000, but using the Gabe Math Theory, I think those count...Comment -
Who cares about openers?
A B C
Always
Beat
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agree with you, but guntard is talking about the current anderson silva line. he implied that silva cant lose because "whens the last time someone -1000 lost in mma". guntard's not talking about closing lines so i wasnt limiting my response to closing lines. mainly just wanted to point out guntard's fallacious reasoning.Comment -
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yup
Current mean: -551Opened at: -1100
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how the hell would bonnar even win to begin with the guy isn't great at any one aspect of the sport. At least Chael was great at takedowns bonnar aint great at nothing except eating punchesComment -
K. Dump your entire bankroll on Silva and post proof.
Fitch won't be shooting wildly, he's gonna wait for Erick to come in and drag him down. As long as the incompetent refs don't let the boos force unwarranted stand ups, Fitch should take this fight. Fitch will drown Silva like he does to every one of his opponents.Last edited by JamesKim; 10-08-12, 03:51 AM.Comment -
Fitch was a stocky, powerful guy, a huge welterweight who lacked in explosiveness but made up for it with a grinding mindset and a willingness to do whatever it takes to get the takedown. In addition, he has one of the best top games in the sport.
Right now, though, his vegan diet, on-off fighting routine and long strings of injury have impaired him greatly and weakened him. He's noticeably smaller and noticeably weaker than he was a couple of years ago. I'd bet small on Erick Silva over old Fitch at +200 (where he should be if he were fighting prime Fitch), but at this time, he's fighting a much smaller, weaker and older Fitch, and anything close to even money is a blessing. People are quick to excuse Fitch's recent performances as flukes, but the truth is, his wins aren't as one-sided and dominant as people make them out to be, either. Let's take a look at the opponents he's faced since his loss to St-Pierre.
Johnny Hendricks: This one can reasonably be excused as a fluke, or it can be interpreted as a sign of Fitch's game lapsing and his normal seek-and-destroy mindset faltering greatly. You decide.
BJ Penn: Not being able to take down a guy who is, honestly, most naturally suited to 145 and below when you're one of the largest and most respected wrestlers in the 170 lbs division is sad in and of itself, but to be repeatedly taken down and dominated on the ground by such a fighter, and then pull out the win because your opponent gasses, is a pathetic performance for a guy like Jon Fitch, let's be honest.
Thiago Alves: One of his most reputable wins. Alves had a lot of hype behind him at the time, almost as much as Silva. Alves, however, has shown a pretty decisive weakness towards wrestlers, and, in addition, missed weight. He looked terrible for this fight, although he likely would have lost to Fitch even on his best night. Just not a good match up for him.
Ben Saunders: I shouldn't really have to explain how irrelevant this win is, so I won't.
Mike Pierce: Probably his most legitimate win, both stylistically and in terms of ability. Most would think Alves, especially considering the hype he carried at the time, but Alves has consistently shown weaknesses towards wrestlers, and was effectively fed to Fitch. He also missed weight in their second fight and looked terrible. Pierce managed to get out-worked by Fitch for two rounds, then turn it up and clobber Fitch for half a round, almost finishing him on several occasions and making Fitch look like an amateur. For a guy with as much intelligence as Fitch, he gets caught with his hands down far too much.
Paulo Thiago: A lot of hype following one win over Josh Koscheck, a disputed stoppage win at that. Future bouts and losses in three of his next six showed that he was a middle-of-the-pack welterweight at the very best. Fitch shut him down, but not without losing one of the rounds.
Akihiro Gono: Coming off of a loss, went on to get knocked out in his next fight. Currently sports a 32-18 record.
I'm not saying Fitch can't win, or even that it's extremely unlikely, but the fact of the matter is that the grinding machine that once was Jon Fitch isn't functioning at full capacity any more. Keep that in mind before you lay down your cash.Last edited by MD; 10-08-12, 04:56 AM.Comment
