Bitcoin Price Tracking & Discussion -- 2025

[Arky]

Saylor's a smart guy ....

Yep, he's got the luxury of being a "forever hodler". (BTW, his 29.5K DCA price is well into the green right now). I agree that it is OK to dip into the stash for a major expense. And that selling just to go into something different (BTC/ETH excluded) is not wise.

Alts are tempting. I've bought so many alts that I watched go up and then go down to nothing, never to recover. Long shots are exactly that - low percentage hit, high return. And when you get out, you're creating a taxable event. Buy in the top 20 or even top 50 range and you have a better chance of hanging around a cycle or two.

Many ways to play in this market. Long term hodling with BTC/ETH still one of the best, IMO....

[raiders72001]

Yep, he's got the luxury of being a "forever hodler". (BTW, his 29.5K DCA price is well into the green right now). I agree that it is OK to dip into the stash for a major expense. And that selling just to go into something different (BTC/ETH excluded) is not wise.

Alts are tempting. I've bought so many alts that I watched go up and then go down to nothing, never to recover. Long shots are exactly that - low percentage hit, high return. And when you get out, you're creating a taxable event. Buy in the top 20 or even top 50 range and you have a better chance of hanging around a cycle or two.

Many ways to play in this market. Long term hodling with BTC/ETH still one of the best, IMO....

Definitely the easiest way since no one has ever lost money buying BTC and then selling 4 years later. I've tapped out on a lot of tokens such as VGX, SAITAMA trying to extend bull runs. Getting beat up with OMI, APE, BEN now. But the gains I made on ETH alone dwarfs all loses I've ever had on alts. RLB is doing fine although I've had it less than a year. When alt season starts, be ready for alts but don't jump around from token to token. It's the only way possible to lose. AI and gaming sector looks good right now.

[raiders72001]

Jan 1st 2019 = $3,738.11

Jan 2nd 2020 = $7,154.33

Jan 1st 2021 = $29,600

Jan 1st 2022 = $47,686

Jan 1st 2023 = $16,625

Jan 1st 2024 = ?????

[Arky]

......... But the gains I made on ETH alone dwarfs all loses I've ever had on alts.....

Yes, same here. BTC and ETH have been best performers.

I have green going with Tron and Monero but I got in when they were floundering 2 bear markets ago. Other long holds - BAT and Stellar are break even.

I never really threw a lot at most alts. I threw a lot at EOS and by far my biggest loser to date. Strange because it is pretty much the same tech as Tron but one is going up (Tron) and the other (EOS) is going down. Also, LUNA was a failure. There's a few alts I threw more money at to try to rescue/DCA and that turned out to be a bad idea. Despite all that, my portfolio is peachy - never had that sick feeling in my gut at all during the last bear market.....

Mind you, over a period of 3 years, I emptied my 401K into crypto and don't recommend anyone to do that. I do enjoy being out of "the system", however. I'll take BTC and ETH over Fidelity all day long....

[raiders72001]

Yes, same here. BTC and ETH have been best performers.

I have green going with Tron and Monero but I got in when they were floundering 2 bear markets ago. Other long holds - BAT and Stellar are break even.

I never really threw a lot at most alts. I threw a lot at EOS and by far my biggest loser to date. Strange because it is pretty much the same tech as Tron but one is going up (Tron) and the other (EOS) is going down. Also, LUNA was a failure. There's a few alts I threw more money at to try to rescue/DCA and that turned out to be a bad idea. Despite all that, my portfolio is peachy - never had that sick feeling in my gut at all during the last bear market.....

Mind you, over a period of 3 years, I emptied my 401K into crypto and don't recommend anyone to do that. I do enjoy being out of "the system", however. I'll take BTC and ETH over Fidelity all day long....

A man after my own heart. GL this run.

[raiders72001]

ETH crossed $2k

[raiders72001]

Starting to feel like the good ole days.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Starting to feel like the good ole days.

Remember how many times I gave out the bonus for new ATH?

[raiders72001]

Remember how many times I gave out the bonus for new ATH?

Those were great! Be ready again soon. Brought us luck.

[raiders72001]

MicroStrategy #1

MicroStrategy Bought 5,445 Bitcoin for $150M Since August


The software ompany now holds nearly $4.68 billion worth of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.




UpdatedSep 25, 2023 at 11:40 a.m. CDT

[Arky]

ETH crossed $2k

Now, $2.1K

MicroStrategy #1

Saylor closing in on owning 1% of all the Bitcoin in the world. Last I checked, he was at .7%.

[homie1975]

sold the rip on ETH and BTC

pocketed profits.

then rebought

rinse and repeat

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arky, that's a crazy Saylor stat. Of course, I like the guy. At times, I wonder if he's insane.

[raiders72001]

Arky, that's a crazy Saylor stat. Of course, I like the guy. At times, I wonder if he's insane.

Guys like Soros and Saylor seem to have a god complex although they use it in much different ways. That type of money can make anyone think that. It can be used for good or bad. That's the scary part.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Guys like Soros and Saylor seem to have a god complex although they use it in much different ways. That type of money can make anyone think that. It can be used for good or bad. That's the scary part.

With that much money in play, I'd imagine that Saylor doesn't need to do cardio workouts. Free cardio workout just by watching the ticker.

[Arky]

Arky, that's a crazy Saylor stat. Of course, I like the guy. At times, I wonder if he's insane.

I love his (Saylor's) description of Bitcoin - "pharmaceutical grade synthetic gold"... haha

I forget how much bitcoin he has at this point - I think it is in the neighborhood of 160,000 bitcoin. It's just a crazy amount. When Bitcoin goes up $1,000, the value of his stash goes up 160 million. When Bitcoin goes from $34K to $35K, he gains 160M. When bitcoin goes from $35K to $36K, he gains 160 more million. Etc, Etc. If bitcoin someday rises to $70K, we are talking billions....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

37,200

Arky, if we ever have lunch with Saylor...HE is picking up the check.

[raiders72001]

Jan 1st 2023 = $16,625

Jan 1st 2024 = ?????

we'll double last years high

[ChuckyTheGoat]

$38,200

[Optional]

Be nice if it holds.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Be nice if it holds.

What's your time horizon, Opti? Short- or long-term?

I'll set the Over/Under for 3/1/2024 at $42,000. You think Over? Or Under?

[Optional]

What's your time horizon, Opti? Short- or long-term?

I'll set the Over/Under for 3/1/2024 at $42,000. You think Over? Or Under?

I really don't think about next week or next month much, but the upward trajectory looks like it's very solid and will continue to me. And if we get the usual December rush 42k should be an easy target as it stands today.

[Optional]

It's looking like any 38k resistance broke very easily too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I really don't think about next week or next month much, but the upward trajectory looks like it's very solid and will continue to me. And if we get the usual December rush 42k should be an easy target as it stands today.

Salud, Opti. Up-up and away.

How is the inflation in Australia? In the USA we're seeing Repair costs easily coming in at > +10%. If you're a Plumber/Electrician/AutoMechanic, you can make good money and will get plenty of work.

[Optional]

Salud, Opti. Up-up and away.

How is the inflation in Australia? In the USA we're seeing Repair costs easily coming in at > +10%. If you're a Plumber/Electrician/AutoMechanic, you can make good money and will get plenty of work.

Exactly the same down here mate.

Inflation is being driven by corporations having made mad profits over covid whilst wages have not moved and basic costs have risen. Same everywhere, I think.

And you should feel my pain with tradesman as I have been trying to renovate a house for the last 5 months. Paid out a big deposit for bathroom tiler 6 or 8 weeks ago and still waiting for a start. Same with carpenter and painter. Plus have to pay top dollar for most trade things too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Exactly the same down here mate.

Inflation is being driven by corporations having made mad profits over covid whilst wages have not moved and basic costs have risen. Same everywhere, I think.

And you should feel my pain with tradesman as I have been trying to renovate a house for the last 5 months. Paid out a big deposit for bathroom tiler 6 or 8 weeks ago and still waiting for a start. Same with carpenter and painter. Plus have to pay top dollar for most trade things too.

Thanks, Opti. Good info. People are going to feel the brunt on raw materials and repairs.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

My brother in law fell victim to a Tesla Elon Musk scam yesterday.

I feel bad for him but I immediately had red flags go up when he told me about it. There was a video posted on Youtube with Elon Musk talking about it and that was what sold him on it.... Sadly, he had already sent the crypto before I talked to him. Thankfully it was not a massive amount to compromise their livelihood but enough to sting. I told him to just try to forget it and not beat himself too much...take it on the chin and a lesson learned going forward. Also told him he is probably better off not telling my sister unless he wants to get berated....maybe tell her at some point down the line but not now.

These scams nowadays are tougher to spot with the help of AI....if anything sounds to good to be true, you know what to do(or what not to do)..

[Arky]

I've been following this Youtuber for a few years, now. He's optimistic but sensible.

In the video, he covers how the recent price surges before the havening are unprecedented. Prices are supposed to go up after the havening - not before.

He points at all the ETF talk as an influence as well as a new one: The liquidity on the exchanges is going downhill, i.e. they are running out of Bitcoin and demand contributes to the price going up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jBmeKy8DOg

Runs about 10 minutes if you have nothing better to do....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I've been following this Youtuber for a few years, now. He's optimistic but sensible.

In the video, he covers how the recent price surges before the havening are unprecedented. Prices are supposed to go up after the havening - not before.

He points at all the ETF talk as an influence as well as a new one: The liquidity on the exchanges is going downhill, i.e. they are running out of Bitcoin and demand contributes to the price going up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jBmeKy8DOg

Runs about 10 minutes if you have nothing better to do....

Yes, Arky:

1) I'd argue that the fractal shows the price tends to go up BEFORE the halving date but more dramatically in the 12 months after the halving. I'll go back and look at the charts. I feel confident in saying that we're in a bull cycle, but it could pick up after March 2024.

2) Yes, coins on exchanges have been discussed. More and more into Cold Storage, fewer and fewer available on exchanges. Will Clemente always posted good graphs illustrating this.

3) Only real question for me is the Demand side. People have to continue to view Bitcoin as a desirable asset. I think they do, but HOW MUCH?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arky: $38,960.

I've been vocal about this. One reasonable angle might be the Greg Foss approach.

Foss advocates putting a small % of your portfolio into Bitcoin. The upside is too high to deny. A 2% investment has a good upside, and I really don't think the downside risk is that high.

We'll get our answer soon enough. Fireworks in the next three months?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

39.4k

[Arky]

Foss advocates putting a small % of your portfolio into Bitcoin. The upside is too high to deny. A 2% investment has a good upside, and I really don't think the downside risk is that high.

We'll get our answer soon enough. Fireworks in the next three months?

Well, I think so many still live check to check. Investing in anything for them is a luxury. Then there are those who quietly work, take home enough to pay the bills and let their company deal with putting the remainder in a 401K (or whatever). Things will get better, right? It's just a slump, right?

Learning how to accumulate, save and hodl Bitcoin might be something they just haven't looked into, yet. But they really should, IMO. There are some really doomy and gloomy forecasts out there for banks, the Stock Market, the dollar and trad-fi (traditional finance). The Mother of all Depressions is on the way, they say.

If it happens, those that are not into "safe" assets such as gold/silver, (I include) crypto and property are gonna get caught with their pants down. Whatcha gonna do when your bank fails and puts you on a monthly spending limit or forces you into a CBDC? One cannot trust or depend on the jokers in charge of things. Self custody is the way to go - become your own bank, IMO.

Just my philosophy/strategy. I know you already know most of this but sometimes it bears repeating...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I agree, Arky. People that don't have invested assets are facing a stark future.

In my mind, inflation is inevitable. Need to counter that by holding assets which move upward at a rate pro-rata with inflation.

[Arky]

I agree, Arky. People that don't have invested assets are facing a stark future.

In my mind, inflation is inevitable. Need to counter that by holding assets which move upward at a rate pro-rata with inflation.

Yes, good point. There's the story of the family that bought a house for $100K in 1960 and then sold it for $1 million in 2020. They ended up losing money due to inflation....

[raiders72001]

If we aren't at these values by Jan 1, 2025 I'll be very disappointed and surprised:

Bitcoin $100k
ETH $10k