First, WTF is actually happening to my Bitcoin?
Here's the deal: Unless there's a major change between now and then, at 7:20am EST next Tuesday, August 1st, Bitcoin will divide into two incompatible coins (a "hard fork"). The new coin will be called Bitcoin Cash (BCC) and will be awarded to BTC owners on a 1 to 1 basis (so if you own 3.25 btc, you're about to own 3.25 btc and 3.25 bcc.) BTC's current value will be divided between the two coins based on factors you don't care about like mining pools and their hash rates, but there's already a futures market for BCC and as I type this it's pricing BCC at about $400: https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime...c&chart=simple
So what's the problem?
The problem is the only way BCC tokens can be distributed is to give them to the holders of BTC's private keys. You probably believe that's you, but if your BTC is at a sportsbook or at an exchange, it's not. THEY hold those private keys, so THEY will receive the BCC. Whether they decide to pass it along to the rightful owners -- i.e., you -- is completely up to them and, worryingly, as far as I know, not a single exchange -- and certainly not a single sportsbook -- has yet promised to do that, and we're only 5 days out from the event.
Edit: Bitfinex has now announced it WILL be distributing BCC to its clients, so it appears to be the first safe exchange to keep your BTC at for August 1st. Conversely, Bitstamp and Coinbase / GDAX have announced they definitely WON'T be distributing BCC to their clients, so move your BTC OUT of those two exchanges.
CONCLUSION: If you own BTC at any exchange except Bitfinex, your value is in danger THIS COMING TUESDAY. If you have BTC at any BTC sportsbook, your value is in GRAVE DANGER THIS COMING TUESDAY.
1. How to Protect Yourself if Your BTC is at an Exchange (Coinbase/GDAX, Kraken, Poloniex, Bitstamp, Bittrex, Bitmex, etc., etc.). There's two options:
a. (Not recommended): Sell your BTC for any other currency and wait until after the hard fork of BTC into BTC and BCC on August 1st, then buy back in afterward. Of course it's up to you, but the reason I wouldn't choose this option is that BTC's price has already been partially reduced, probably reflecting some the value it's about to lose to BCC.
b. (Recommended): Move your BTC to a wallet where you, not the exchanges, have control over your private keys. Whoever controls the private keys will receive the BCC and you want that to be you, yourself, not an exchange that might -- or might not -- pass those tokens along to you. There's also a recent, bad precedent: last month alt coin STR/XLM gave away $30 of itself per bitcoin to every bitcoin owner in the world, but every BTC sportsbook and almost every exchange just pocketed that money for themselves.
Any of the wallets on the following page are safe, leaving you in control of your private keys: https://bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-wallet
2. How to Protect Yourself if Your Bitcoin's at a BTC Sportsbook:
There's only one way: Withdraw it all before July 31st and send it to a wallet where you control the private keys. Do NOT, under any circumstances, have any BTC at Nitro/Cloudbet/Fairlay/Coinbet/Onehash, etc., on August 1st unless, like myself, some of your BTC is stuck on pending futures wagers. In that sad case -- just my luck! -- we're at the absolute mercy of the sportsbooks to pass along our BCC tokens. To see why that's a problem, here's the worryingly non committal reply I got from Nitro when I asked whether players would receive the BCC tokens issued to the private keys of our BTC, which they hold:
Nitrogen Sports Support at 3:03pm on July 26, 2017
Hello XXX,
Thank you for reaching out to us with your inquiry! We appreciate your kind words.
Nitrogen continuously monitors updates to the bitcoin client, network, protocol and community. We would certainly never make any kind of switch independently, but we will pay attention to the community at large in order to make the best decision for Nitrogen and it's users.
Unfortunately, we cannot commit to what this decision will be at this time but we encourage you to continue checking our website for any updates in this regard.
If you have any other concern, feel free to contact us.
Best regards,
XXX
This reply isn't at all reassuring. Read a certain way, one might even interpret it to mean they're going to wait and see how much BCC tokens are worth before deciding whether to pass our money along to us or just pocket it for themselves.
Concluding on a Happy Note
The August 1st dangers for BTC owners are real and the August 1st dangers for BTC depositors at BTC sportsbooks are VERY real, but don't let that fool you: outside of the problems with BCC token distribution, the news is all good. The Great Scalability War is over. One of the proposed fixes (BIP 91) has already triggered, reducing the voting pool on a second fix (BIP 141, aka "SegWit"), which basically guarantees its adoption on August 11th. A doubling of the bitcoin block size is then scheduled for November (the "2x" part of SegWit2x), but I know this community well, and if we're really able to agree on how best to do that in barely more than 3 months, I'll eat my hat.
Still, these are all steps in the right direction. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a nice August rally, possibly hitting All Time Highs (once you've added BTC + BCC). GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Here's the deal: Unless there's a major change between now and then, at 7:20am EST next Tuesday, August 1st, Bitcoin will divide into two incompatible coins (a "hard fork"). The new coin will be called Bitcoin Cash (BCC) and will be awarded to BTC owners on a 1 to 1 basis (so if you own 3.25 btc, you're about to own 3.25 btc and 3.25 bcc.) BTC's current value will be divided between the two coins based on factors you don't care about like mining pools and their hash rates, but there's already a futures market for BCC and as I type this it's pricing BCC at about $400: https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime...c&chart=simple
So what's the problem?
The problem is the only way BCC tokens can be distributed is to give them to the holders of BTC's private keys. You probably believe that's you, but if your BTC is at a sportsbook or at an exchange, it's not. THEY hold those private keys, so THEY will receive the BCC. Whether they decide to pass it along to the rightful owners -- i.e., you -- is completely up to them and, worryingly, as far as I know, not a single exchange -- and certainly not a single sportsbook -- has yet promised to do that, and we're only 5 days out from the event.
Edit: Bitfinex has now announced it WILL be distributing BCC to its clients, so it appears to be the first safe exchange to keep your BTC at for August 1st. Conversely, Bitstamp and Coinbase / GDAX have announced they definitely WON'T be distributing BCC to their clients, so move your BTC OUT of those two exchanges.
CONCLUSION: If you own BTC at any exchange except Bitfinex, your value is in danger THIS COMING TUESDAY. If you have BTC at any BTC sportsbook, your value is in GRAVE DANGER THIS COMING TUESDAY.
1. How to Protect Yourself if Your BTC is at an Exchange (Coinbase/GDAX, Kraken, Poloniex, Bitstamp, Bittrex, Bitmex, etc., etc.). There's two options:
a. (Not recommended): Sell your BTC for any other currency and wait until after the hard fork of BTC into BTC and BCC on August 1st, then buy back in afterward. Of course it's up to you, but the reason I wouldn't choose this option is that BTC's price has already been partially reduced, probably reflecting some the value it's about to lose to BCC.
b. (Recommended): Move your BTC to a wallet where you, not the exchanges, have control over your private keys. Whoever controls the private keys will receive the BCC and you want that to be you, yourself, not an exchange that might -- or might not -- pass those tokens along to you. There's also a recent, bad precedent: last month alt coin STR/XLM gave away $30 of itself per bitcoin to every bitcoin owner in the world, but every BTC sportsbook and almost every exchange just pocketed that money for themselves.
Any of the wallets on the following page are safe, leaving you in control of your private keys: https://bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-wallet
2. How to Protect Yourself if Your Bitcoin's at a BTC Sportsbook:
There's only one way: Withdraw it all before July 31st and send it to a wallet where you control the private keys. Do NOT, under any circumstances, have any BTC at Nitro/Cloudbet/Fairlay/Coinbet/Onehash, etc., on August 1st unless, like myself, some of your BTC is stuck on pending futures wagers. In that sad case -- just my luck! -- we're at the absolute mercy of the sportsbooks to pass along our BCC tokens. To see why that's a problem, here's the worryingly non committal reply I got from Nitro when I asked whether players would receive the BCC tokens issued to the private keys of our BTC, which they hold:
Nitrogen Sports Support at 3:03pm on July 26, 2017
Hello XXX,
Thank you for reaching out to us with your inquiry! We appreciate your kind words.
Nitrogen continuously monitors updates to the bitcoin client, network, protocol and community. We would certainly never make any kind of switch independently, but we will pay attention to the community at large in order to make the best decision for Nitrogen and it's users.
Unfortunately, we cannot commit to what this decision will be at this time but we encourage you to continue checking our website for any updates in this regard.
If you have any other concern, feel free to contact us.
Best regards,
XXX
This reply isn't at all reassuring. Read a certain way, one might even interpret it to mean they're going to wait and see how much BCC tokens are worth before deciding whether to pass our money along to us or just pocket it for themselves.
Concluding on a Happy Note
The August 1st dangers for BTC owners are real and the August 1st dangers for BTC depositors at BTC sportsbooks are VERY real, but don't let that fool you: outside of the problems with BCC token distribution, the news is all good. The Great Scalability War is over. One of the proposed fixes (BIP 91) has already triggered, reducing the voting pool on a second fix (BIP 141, aka "SegWit"), which basically guarantees its adoption on August 11th. A doubling of the bitcoin block size is then scheduled for November (the "2x" part of SegWit2x), but I know this community well, and if we're really able to agree on how best to do that in barely more than 3 months, I'll eat my hat.
Still, these are all steps in the right direction. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a nice August rally, possibly hitting All Time Highs (once you've added BTC + BCC). GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
