Anyone else loving the Cubs at +200 tomorrow afternoon?

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:05 AM

not so sure price isnt justified, brew crew still playoff type team when at home, gallardo is a legit ace (no idea what yo saying about "time for him to regress", because he has pitched well? he a very good pitcher doing what he supposed to do), and while yes wood has had success against brew crew it extremely limited sample which is worrisome seeing how beer cans typically feast off lefties, if anything possibly a good time for a little number correction...not real interested myself but when i looked at gm the thought of betting scrubbies was not even close to appealing to me, ive certainly been wrong before but imo kc looked like the much stronger of the big daytime doggies.....bol

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:12 AM

with all due respect if there is any "regression" here id say odds are it woods numbers against a righty stacked mil team as his numbers vs righties are below avg at best so have serious doubts those limited abs are a indicator of his sustainable success against these batters..

Balco10 · 08-22-12, 03:14 AM

The odds makers are not idiots.

EVPlus · 08-22-12, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by Avenger

Gallardo pitching for the Brewers, the Cubs have an average BA = .305 against him.

While Cub's Wood has an impressive average BA = .182 v. Brewers.

Gallardo has been on helluva run, he pitched 7 innings last game v. Phillies, only allowing 1 hit and 9 Strikeouts. I think it's time for him to regress...

-240 for Gallardo is ludicrous. I'm taking Cubs on principle only.

Anyone else with me?

-240 for anyone is silly. But please don't take the other side just because there's "value."

Look at the most popular post from yesterday. The capper took the Braves, patted himself on the back for taking a +134 dog, traded bro-mance posts with his fan boys...and the play lost.

There's a time to take dogs and a time to eat chalk. Vegas knows the wanna-be sharps get a hard-on just because a play is plus money. It's how they sucker them in. Just like how they sucker in squares with heavily juiced lines.

Balco10 · 08-22-12, 03:17 AM

So you take the Brewers -1.5 +120

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by Balco10

So you take the Brewers -1.5 +120

id take that, unfortunately mil rl is -118....

Avenger · 08-22-12, 03:32 AM

I believe in regression, Gallardo's L3 pitch counts have been 118-114-108. What worries me most is the last game, he only had 1 ER and 9 SO, it's human nature to slow down, he can't keep this pace for the rest of the season.

Regression is how I won over 10 units on Doc Halliday last year. Halliday used to be so predictable, just fade the game after he pitches a no-no or shut out, or has less than 3 ERs.

But I'm not going to debate gambling strategy with you. Everyone has their systems, whatever works.

Avenger · 08-22-12, 03:34 AM

Originally posted by Balco10

The odds makers are not idiots.

thanks for the head's up!

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by Avenger

I believe in regression, Gallardo's L3 pitch counts have been 118-114-108. What worries me most is the last game, he only had 1 ER and 9 SO, it's human nature to slow down, he can't keep this pace for the rest of the season.

Regression is how I won over 10 units on Doc Halliday last year. Halliday used to be so predictable, just fade the game after he pitches a no-no or shut out, or has less than 3 ERs.

But I'm not going to debate gambling strategy with you. Everyone has their systems, whatever works.

that is all well and good but i just dont see how you can possibly say gallarado is due for regression while wood numbers against mil are not?

Avenger · 08-22-12, 03:38 AM

It's hard to pull the trigger on the Flubbies. I may go F5 Cubbies, small, half a unit.

Brewers at home have been money....

anyone else have input?

LuckyStarter · 08-22-12, 03:38 AM

I m with you for cubs.....same line as today's TB game but still they lost.....gonna repeat same thing tomorrow Brewers

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:39 AM

Originally posted by Avenger

It's hard to pull the trigger on the Flubbies. I may go F5 Cubbies, small, half a unit.

Brewers at home have been money....

anyone else have input?

if you gonna do it id prob do gm...not sure who pen is worse honestly but i know mil just as capable of blowing a lead late...

Avenger · 08-22-12, 03:40 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

that is all well and good but i just dont see how you can possibly say gallarado is due for regression while wood numbers against mil are not?

Regression is due to fatigue and lack of preparation. It takes effort to learn every hitter's weaknesses and practice. They've only got so much arm, it's got to last a season.

Wood has been pitching badly, so he may be motivated to pitch lights out v. team he's had success before...

This strategy works miracles on some pitchers.

2daBank · 08-22-12, 03:43 AM

i really have no interest so i hope you cash it..just really dont understand how you came to the conclusion a very good pitcher like gallarado who's advance numbers pretty much line up with his era and such yr in and out is do for a regression while you think you can count on wood because he has had successes a few times against these guys, when his numbers are clearly the ones that dont add up.....this is my question.obviously we have a different opinion of what regression is...bol regardless

face · 08-22-12, 06:28 AM

f it i will bet the cubs today at +220. probably lose.

Smogs · 08-22-12, 06:57 AM

That price is ridiculous, kind of like David Price at -270 yesterday losing