SEA/NYY hurry and take the under 8 before the line moves

[Thurgood]

Anyone else like this total?

[matt1216]

Anyone else like this total?

ya im on it. could b a pitchng duel tommorow. i do think kuroda is better than sabatia and hernandez pitchin good caeer wise in NY. he was touchd up a bit earlier this year by NYY,but i dont see mariners scorin much here. Seattle comin off a sweep of KC and toronto. NY gonna shut them down this series

[Thurgood]

My only hesitations were the weather because game time temp is near 90 and obviously not knowing the umpire.

I have this theory under umps make the strike zone smaller in big games and yes it is NYY but it's also the Mariners in a day game.

Let's hope for a pitching duel! Bol

[daysleeper]

Playing in that little park is always scary for the under, especially in hot weather. It seems like pop flies end up getting out of there a bunch.

[LT Profits]

M's +139 is a GREAT play today with one of the best and hottest pitchers in baseball.

[Thurgood]

Playing in that little park is always scary for the under, especially in hot weather. It seems like pop flies end up getting out of there a bunch.

I scored the game at 5.5. Two very good pitchers and one is even an ace.

Situational lineups also favor the under.

[Thurgood]

Vanover is calling this game. 54.5% on the under. Avg run total of 7.1.

Total still at 8 if you like making money..

[LT Profits]

I still prefer Felix at + odds to the total

[PuckIt]

Agreed. I have a unit on U8 +108 and U8.5 -115. I put this U8.5 at around 66%.

[Pin Fish]

over 8 is the play..........

[Thurgood]

I still prefer Felix at + odds to the total

I'm not saying you're wrong but here is the thing.. You are betting the Mariner's win because Felix pitches well in 6-7 innings. Baseball is a 9 inning game. The math behind the total doesn't rely on 2-3 unknown innings.

[Thurgood]

Agreed. I have a unit on U8 +108 and U8.5 -115. I put this U8.5 at around 66%.

Where did you get 8.5?

[LT Profits]

I'm not saying you're wrong but here is the thing.. You are betting the Mariner's win because Felix pitches well in 6-7 innings. Baseball is a 9 inning game. The math behind the total doesn't rely on 2-3 unknown innings.

I get Yankees winning this game 56% of the time, making Seattle +EV at the price.

[PuckIt]

Where did you get 8.5?

5dimes
U7 +170
U7.5 +125
U8 +108 (reduced)
U8.5 -115
U9 -140

[PuckIt]

I get Yankees winning this game 56% of the time, making Seattle +EV at the price.

I have SEA winning 57% if Felix has a QS (56% chance of QS). For a toss-up game, the +$$$ on SEA is a good play.

[LT Profits]

I have SEA winning 57% if Felix has a QS (56% chance of QS). For a toss-up game, the +$$$ on SEA is a good play.

That is too far off actual line, time to tinker with the model.

[PuckIt]

That is too far off actual line, time to tinker with the model.

With the variables in the pitching and batting, I have them at around a 41% chance overall. Sound better?

[LT Profits]

With the variables in the pitching and batting, I have them at around a 41% chance overall. Sound better?

Better but then both sides would be -EV

[Thurgood]

I get Yankees winning this game 56% of the time, making Seattle +EV at the price.

No need to reveal your capping method but do you use career numbers? I'll glance at them but try not to stress them too much.

[Thurgood]

5dimes
U7 +170
U7.5 +125
U8 +108 (reduced)
U8.5 -115
U9 -140

Damn dude you pounded the under lol Why not just pick a number and go big?

[Thurgood]

Cashed.

[PuckIt]

Damn dude you pounded the under lol Why not just pick a number and go big?

Trying to play the %'s. I didn't play all those I was just telling you what the odds were at 5D...only played the 8 and 8.5.