MLB - Thursday, 8/2/12

taxe91 · 08-02-12, 08:48 AM

I do think Lester will regress back to his usual sold numbers as the season goes on, but the Twins did take him for 5 runs the last time he faced them, and he has an ERA over 7 at home this year. The Minnesota kid seems to walk a lot of hitters too. Thoughts behind this one, LT?

BigGame009 · 08-02-12, 09:36 AM

ya I think you gotta give the edge to Lester, of course. I'd just take my money on the ML. A hunch is telling me Lester will go back to his old ways during this one. I think the Sox will score, but will the Twins...

And this is coming from a Twins fan...

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 MLB Play Thursday

Twins / Red Sox UNDER 10 -105 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 219-180-16, +46.90

Adding:

Padres +182 (Rebate Wager)

There MIGHT be one more update

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

I do think Lester will regress back to his usual sold numbers as the season goes on, but the Twins did take him for 5 runs the last time he faced them, and he has an ERA over 7 at home this year. The Minnesota kid seems to walk a lot of hitters too. Thoughts behind this one, LT?

Lester showed signs of snapping out of it last time out vs. the Yankees, he really only had one bad inning. Twins haven't done much offensively last few games and they have always struggled in Boston. You make a valid point about Deduno's walks, but he is also a strikeout guy and he is coming off his best start allowing two hits in seven innings.

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 10:44 AM

MLB Triple Play (2 Plays at 12:30 ET)

Originally posted by LT Profits

Twins / Red Sox UNDER 10 -105 (5 Dimes)
Padres +182 (Rebate Wager)

YTD: 219-180-16, +46.90

Adding:

Reds UNDER 4.5 -105 (Team Total) (Rebate Wager)

MLB Card complete

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 11:06 AM

Are Padres just a value play?

JR007 · 08-02-12, 11:42 AM

nice job this year LT

scottsins · 08-02-12, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Are Padres just a value play?

All of his plays are value plays, which is the only sensible approach to betting, especially ML.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by scottsins

All of his plays are value plays, which is the only sensible approach to betting, especially ML.

So you never play a juiced line because you have a solid angle?

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

So you never play a juiced line because you have a solid angle?

Value is EVERYTHING in betting, you can't win long term without it. That said, pinny kicked my ass here closing at +189.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 12:05 PM

Big 2nd inning here for reds....

mbs4 · 08-02-12, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

So you never play a juiced line because you have a solid angle?

Juiced lines can still have value

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by mbs4

Juiced lines can still have value

Yeah I get it. But whats the value in the Pads today other than the +183 or whatever. What's the angle other than the juice? I mean you can play matches at +2000 but does that mean value?

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 12:27 PM

You have to be able to compute your own probabilities and the compared them the actual line. The second part is the easy part.

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 12:32 PM

It looks like I was obviously wrong but I put the Padres' chances of winning today between 37-38%. Using the low end of 37% is +170.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 12:36 PM

lead cut in half. lets GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

lead cut in half. lets GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I was more concerned with showing you the thought process, +2000 in and of itself in not value. +2000 on what should be +1700 is. +2000 in what should be +2500 is not.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 12:58 PM

Haha I get you man. I was just trying to clear up a thought I had and you helped me do that. I need to learn how to cap games by plugging numbers and just trying to get a better understanding of everything and different approaches.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 01:07 PM

C'mon Hedley WAKE UP!

starbuck2233 · 08-02-12, 01:12 PM

Call me crazy. I bet the twins today

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 MLB Play Thursday

Twins / Red Sox UNDER 10 -105 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 219-180-16, +46.90

Value play all the way.No way anyone should lay -200 or whatever it's at now on lester the way he's pitched this year.Hope you win your bets as well,I just have no faith in betting unders at Fenway...

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by starbuck2233

Value play all the way.No way anyone should lay -200 or whatever it's at now on lester the way he's pitched this year.Hope you win your bets as well,I just have no faith in betting unders at Fenway...

He doesnt have a play on Lester. Its on the under.

LT Profits · 08-02-12, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

He doesnt have a play on Lester. Its on the under.

He knows that.

He is saying HE made a play on Twins and he doesn't trust unders at Fenway

sergiudec · 08-02-12, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 MLB Play Thursday

Twins / Red Sox UNDER 10 -105 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 219-180-16, +46.90

On it. BOL to all.

riffraff24 · 08-02-12, 02:26 PM

Here comes a 10 run inning for the Padres!!!!

hehe

19th Hole · 08-02-12, 02:29 PM

LT,
Good Luck on the Red Sox Under....

~~~~~~~~~~
Nice looking family by the way.
They look like they have a good father.

underal · 08-08-12, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It looks like I was obviously wrong but I put the Padres' chances of winning today between 37-38%. Using the low end of 37% is +170.

don't mean to beat this to death LT but you asked me in today's thread about this game. Here you had padres at + 170 and got +183. this is the game I was referring to.