Big Dog Parlay System... Give it a test run...

Brp27345 · 07-28-12, 08:51 PM

Red Sox / Over

White Sox / Under

Rays / Under

Overall Series Record (3-0) +$82.00

Series #1 U - L,
Series #2 U - L,
Series #3 U - W (+$30.00)
Series #4 U - L,
Series #5 U - W (+$24.00)

Series #1 O - W (+$28.00)
Series #2 O - L,
Series #3 O - L,
Series #4 O - L,
Series #5 O - L,

jolmscheid · 07-28-12, 09:48 PM

Basically you are doing correlated parlays?

Brp27345 · 07-28-12, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Basically you are doing correlated parlays?

not correlated... no... I will explain it in like an hour or so... it's a "chase" system... but with far less danger in the chase... I think it has potential to show a fairly good profit... with no capping involved...

betme · 07-28-12, 11:26 PM

interesting to see how this chase work

Brp27345 · 07-28-12, 11:41 PM

Ok... so here is a description as to how this works for those of you who may be interested...

1.) It is a parlay chase system
2.) I will be betting teams who are only between the odds of +150 and +210
3.) I will be parlaying each of those teams with both the under and the over
4.) I will have a maximum of 5 "Series" open at any given time for both the Overs and the Unders
5.) The games will be placed in corresponding series each day so that the any open slots of the 5 maximum are filled, and then will fill in other slots in relation to the lowest level bet that is left on the board
6.) The chase will go 7 parlays deep in any given "Series" and then the series will be considered a loss
7.) A Series Loss will result in a Loss of exactly $105
8.) Every series win will return a minimum of $24... with a maximum of a $62 return... and on average will return somewhere between $30-$45
9.) Worst case scenario... we will need every 4 wins to cancel out 1 loss... and at that percentage we should return a small profit...
10.) Since the average play we will have will be somewhere around +175... and that translates into about a 37% chance of winning the game... we should get a win about 3 out of every 8 games... which means we will hit on 3 out of every 16 parlays we make... Which I believe based purely on probability should turn a profit...

***If anyone has any questions... or any kind of input to put into this... please feel free to share***

Thanks - BRP

Brp27345 · 07-28-12, 11:55 PM

Parlay Plays 7/29

Series #6 U - Play #1 - Padres (+155) / Un. 7.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $25
Series #7 U - Play #1 - Rockies (+160) / Un. 10.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $26
Series #1 U - Play #2 - Rays (+180) / Un. 8 (-110) - $8.50 to win $37
Series #2 U - Play #2 - Royals (+160) / Un. 6.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34
Series #4 U - Play #2 - Red Sox (+160) / Un. 10 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34

Series #6 O - Play #1 - Padres (+155) / Ov. 7.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $25
Series #2 O - Play #2 - Rockies (+160) / Ov. 10.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34
Series #3 O - Play #2 - Rays (+180) / Ov. 8 (-110) - $8.50 to win $37
Series #4 O - Play #2 - Royals (+160) / Ov. 6.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34
Series #5 O - Play #2 - Red Sox (+160) / Ov. 10 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34

nosaij · 07-29-12, 05:25 AM

so i make 11 parlays?

jackmyhoggoff · 07-29-12, 08:45 AM

10 I'd say

Brp27345 · 07-29-12, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by nosaij

so i make 11 parlays?

Yeah... it's 10 parlays today... and will most likely be at around that number every day... the more plays the better... the more chances we have to make money... if you want to know whats going down read the instructions...

nosaij · 07-29-12, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by Brp27345

Red Sox / Over

White Sox / Under

Rays / Under

Overall Series Record (3-0) +$82.00

Series #1 U - L,
Series #2 U - L,
Series #3 U - W (+$30.00)
Series #4 U - L,
Series #5 U - W (+$24.00)

Series #1 O - W (+$28.00)
Series #2 O - L,
Series #3 O - L,
Series #4 O - L,
Series #5 O - L,

so for this day, you invested in 65 dollars, and gained 82 dollars, so profited 17 dollars right?

nrok2118 · 07-29-12, 09:26 AM

alright this is interesting....but what is the $ risked structure? and how does that correlate to the chase?

jackmyhoggoff · 07-29-12, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by nrok2118

alright this is interesting....but what is the $ risked structure? and how does that correlate to the chase?

W-$82 & L-$45 OR Risk $65 to get $82 yesterday !

nrok2118 · 07-29-12, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by jackmyhoggoff

W-$82 & L-$45 OR Risk $65 to get $82 yesterday !

no, I mean why risk $6.5 for game 1, now 8.5 for game 2...whats 3,4,5,6,7? and whats the math behind it?

Brp27345 · 07-29-12, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by jackmyhoggoff

W-$82 & L-$45 OR Risk $65 to get $82 yesterday !

yes... your guys math is correct... but I don't think of it that way since I don't consider anything a loss in a series til I lose 7 games in a row... so in my mind I made $82 or basically just won 3 series yesterday...

Brp27345 · 07-29-12, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by nrok2118

no, I mean why risk $6.5 for game 1, now 8.5 for game 2...whats 3,4,5,6,7? and whats the math behind it?

Levels are as follows...

6.50
8.50
10.50
13.50
17.00
21.50
27.00

what this does is set it up so that every win clears away all the losses and ensures a minimum $25 profit with a win in the series no matter what level that win may come at...

nosaij · 07-29-12, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by Brp27345

yes... your guys math is correct... but I don't think of it that way since I don't consider anything a loss in a series til I lose 7 games in a row... so in my mind I made $82 or basically just won 3 series yesterday...

oh i see now.

AceKingHigh · 07-29-12, 10:29 AM

why not just bet $13 on the team instead of parlay it with O/U ???

AceKingHigh · 07-29-12, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Brp27345

Levels are as follows...

6.50
8.50
10.50
13.50
17.00
21.50
27.00

what this does is set it up so that every win clears away all the losses and ensures a minimum $25 profit with a win in the series no matter what level that win may come at...

Also, if a series lost, it means you lost $209 ,
6.5+8.5+.....+27 (x2 because you play O/U both sides)

Brp27345 · 07-30-12, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by AceKingHigh

Also, if a series lost, it means you lost $209 ,
6.5+8.5+.....+27 (x2 because you play O/U both sides)

its $105... because the series are independent of each other... and i can hit an over side while losing on the under...

Brp27345 · 07-30-12, 10:59 AM

Red Sox / Under

Rays / Under

Overall Series Record (5-0) +$140.00

Series #1 U - L,W (+$30.50)
Series #2 U - L,L,
Series #3 U - W (+$30.00)
Series #4 U - L,W (+$27.50)
Series #5 U - W (+$24.00)
Series #6 U - L,
Series #7 U - L,

Series #1 O - W (+$28.00)
Series #2 O - L,L,
Series #3 O - L,L,
Series #4 O - L,L,
Series #5 O - L,L,
Series #6 O - L,

Brp27345 · 07-30-12, 11:08 AM

Parlay Plays 7/30

Series #8 U - Play #1 - Orioles (+170) / Un. 10 (-110) - $6.50 to win $27
Series #9 U - Play #1 - Astros (+170) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $27
Series #6 U - Play #2 - Mets (+185) / Un. 6.5 (+100) - $8.50 to win $40

Series #6 O - Play #2 - Orioles (+170) / Ov. 10 (-110) - $8.50 to win $35.50
Series #2 O - Play #3 - Astros (+170) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $43.50
Series #3 O - Play #3 - Mets (+185) / Ov. 6.5 (-120) - $10.50 to win $44.50

Brp27345 · 07-30-12, 11:09 AM

as always BOL to everyone today whatever your bets may be... and if anyone has any questions or comments about the strategy please feel free to share... all thoughts and opinions are encouraged...

BRP

jackmyhoggoff · 07-30-12, 02:58 PM

GOT IT ! Thanks.

jolmscheid · 07-30-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Brp27345

Parlay Plays 7/30

Series #8 U - Play #1 - Orioles (+170) / Un. 10 (-110) - $6.50 to win $27
Series #9 U - Play #1 - Astros (+170) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $27
Series #6 U - Play #2 - Mets (+185) / Un. 6.5 (+100) - $8.50 to win $40

Series #6 O - Play #2 - Orioles (+170) / Ov. 10 (-110) - $8.50 to win $35.50
Series #2 O - Play #3 - Astros (+170) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $43.50
Series #3 O - Play #3 - Mets (+185) / Ov. 6.5 (-120) - $10.50 to win $44.50

So do you wait and finish up all open series bets before starting another set of 10 series?

Brp27345 · 07-31-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

So do you wait and finish up all open series bets before starting another set of 10 series?

No, what I do is keep 5 "open" under series... and 5 "open" over series going at a time... so 10 series are open at all times... if a series closes I fill in that spot by opening a new one... and I always fill in the lowest Play # first when filling in the empty spots...

Brp27345 · 07-31-12, 12:14 PM

Orioles / Under

Mets / Over

Overall Series Record (7-0) +$196.50

Series #1 U - L,W (+$30.50)
Series #2 U - L,L,
Series #3 U - W (+$30.00)
Series #4 U - L,W (+$27.50)
Series #5 U - W (+$24.00)
Series #6 U - L,L,
Series #7 U - L,
Series #8 U - W (+$27.00)
Series #9 U - L,

Series #1 O - W (+$28.00)
Series #2 O - L,L,L
Series #3 O - L,L,W(+$29.50)
Series #4 O - L,L,
Series #5 O - L,L,
Series #6 O - L,L,

Brp27345 · 07-31-12, 12:19 PM

Parlay Plays 8/1

Series #10 U - Play #1 - Orioles (+160) / Un. 9.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $26
Series #7 U - Play #2 - Marlins (+160) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34
Series #9 U - Play #2 - Padres (+160) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34

Series #7 O - Play #1 - Orioles (+160) / Ov. 9.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $26
Series #4 O - Play #3 - Marlins (+160) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $41.50
Series #5 O - Play #3 - Padres (+160) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $41.50

Brp27345 · 07-31-12, 12:19 PM

as always BOL to everyone today whatever your bets may be... and if anyone has any questions or comments about the strategy please feel free to share... all thoughts and opinions are encouraged...

BRP

Roscoe2330 · 07-31-12, 10:22 PM

Bpr - very interesting and intriguing approach!

Is there any particular approach in which you determine which teams go on what Play #'s? It doesn't appear to be in order of odds but couldn't tell if there was another approach.

Thanks,
Roscoe

jolmscheid · 08-01-12, 12:37 AM

Wouldn't playing the fav / over and dog / under be smarter / more highly correlated?

ColdBeerHere · 08-01-12, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by Brp27345

Parlay Plays 8/1

Series #10 U - Play #1 - Orioles (+160) / Un. 9.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $26
Series #7 U - Play #2 - Marlins (+160) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34
Series #9 U - Play #2 - Padres (+160) / Un. 8.5 (-110) - $8.50 to win $34

Series #7 O - Play #1 - Orioles (+160) / Ov. 9.5 (-110) - $6.50 to win $26
Series #4 O - Play #3 - Marlins (+160) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $41.50
Series #5 O - Play #3 - Padres (+160) / Ov. 8.5 (-110) - $10.50 to win $41.50

couple of questions....This should have been july 31 parlay? right ? and if so, the orioles beat the yanks and it went over....so series 7O is complete, what do you do with series 10U (orioles/under) ? that lost, so do you continue that series by going to the second leg of the chase ?

and how do you figure out what team to pick next ? do you go for the highest vig avaiable ? or do you go for the lowest ? seem's like high would be the way to go

And one last question.......Do you try to keep the same team on the same
series if they lost and are still a dog the next day ?

thanks, seems interesting.....

Brp27345 · 08-01-12, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Roscoe2330

Bpr - very interesting and intriguing approach!

Is there any particular approach in which you determine which teams go on what Play #'s? It doesn't appear to be in order of odds but couldn't tell if there was another approach.

Thanks,
Roscoe

The way I have decided to do it on the first 4 levels at least is just to throw the teams in as they appear listed on the site I use to bet... so if I have to start a new series... and therefore that is the first "play" of the day... the team on the top of the listed game for that day and so on ends up filling that hole...

Once I get past level 4 though... I will go with the first game with odds under +160 to fill in a spot... and if there aren't enough... I will have to open up a 6th series... plays #5,6,7 will only be bet on game where the team are getting between +150 and +160 odds in order to try to clear the series more effectively in "crunch time"...

Thanks for the interest... and hope this helps answer the question...

Brp27345 · 08-01-12, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

couple of questions....This should have been july 31 parlay? right ? and if so, the orioles beat the yanks and it went over....so series 7O is complete, what do you do with series 10U (orioles/under) ? that lost, so do you continue that series by going to the second leg of the chase ?

and how do you figure out what team to pick next ? do you go for the highest vig avaiable ? or do you go for the lowest ? seem's like high would be the way to go

And one last question.......Do you try to keep the same team on the same
series if they lost and are still a dog the next day ?

thanks, seems interesting.....

First of all they were July 31st... and Im an idiot for that... was in a big rush yesterday as I was getting ready to go to Jersey to watch Tottenham play the NY Red Bulls last night...

Series 7 O was cleared last night... and you are exactly correct that I will now go to the 2nd level of the chase on series 10 U... I explained in the above post how I pick the next game I am going to place in the corresponding series... and lastly no there has nothing to do with the same teams repeating on series...

Thanks for the interest and we will see how it goes...

Brp27345 · 08-01-12, 10:31 AM

Orioles / Over

Overall Series Record (8-0) +$222.50

Series #1 U - L,W (+$30.50)
Series #2 U - L,L,
Series #3 U - W (+$30.00)
Series #4 U - L,W (+$27.50)
Series #5 U - W (+$24.00)
Series #6 U - L,L,
Series #7 U - L,L,
Series #8 U - W (+$27.00)
Series #9 U - L,L,
Series #10 U - L,

Series #1 O - W (+$28.00)
Series #2 O - L,L,L
Series #3 O - L,L,W(+$29.50)
Series #4 O - L,L,L,
Series #5 O - L,L,L,
Series #6 O - L,L,
Series #7 O - W (+$26.00)