Monday's leans

B1AZE · 07-22-12, 10:44 PM

Agree with all of it except Boston. Not sure they give a crap right now. SF with a monster trip back home.

borednaz · 07-22-12, 10:46 PM

I know your thing is dogs, but find me some good ones. The trip from Oakland to Seattle is not long enough to say the Yankees will be jet lagged and Seattle is coming back from Tampa. I just don't see the value. Now Colorado has done surprisingly well against AZ at Chase Field. I know I've lost a ton of money backing Dbags against Colorado. Mil is also worth a small look with how bad the Phils have been in scoring lately.

No coincidences · 07-22-12, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by B1AZE

Agree with all of it except Boston. Not sure they give a crap right now. SF with a monster trip back home.

Hard to trust Boston anywhere, anytime.

Lester should've had to walk out the stadium through the stands the way he pitched today. He has lost it.

No coincidences · 07-22-12, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by borednaz

I know your thing is dogs, but find me some good ones. The trip from Oakland to Seattle is not long enough to say the Yankees will be jet lagged and Seattle is coming back from Tampa. I just don't see the value. Now Colorado has done surprisingly well against AZ at Chase Field. I know I've lost a ton of money backing Dbags against Colorado. Mil is also worth a small look with how bad the Phils have been in scoring lately.

You want me to find "good dogs," then you mention Jonathan Sanchez at Chase Field?

It's hard to find "good dogs" on paper at high prices. That's why they're +170 or whatever in the first place. They rarely look good on paper before the game is played.

lunchbawks · 07-22-12, 10:52 PM

taking boston.. no line posted

borednaz · 07-22-12, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You want me to find "good dogs," then you mention Jonathan Sanchez at Chase Field?

It's hard to find "good dogs" on paper at high prices. That's why they're +170 or whatever in the first place. They rarely look good on paper before the game is played.

It's not hard to measure teams historically, how they hit against the OP. I think this is a case where the books are taking advantage of the Dbags pretending like they can score. -200 on the AZ no matter whom the team is they are playing is pure insanity. And the public got very lucky they were playing against Houston.

daysleeper · 07-22-12, 11:00 PM

Top pick CIN -155
Best dog ATL +115

borednaz · 07-22-12, 11:02 PM

I soooo Wanna play the Angels tomorrow at -200 to -215!!!

Vinnie Paz · 07-22-12, 11:03 PM

Nobody plays totals?
Took indians under 9 already

No coincidences · 07-22-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Nobody plays totals?
Took indians under 9 already

What about the MIN/CHW under? Floyd has shutouts in two of three (if not three of four) starts recently, and Twins aren't hitting a lick when Liriano pitches.

Spedizzo · 07-22-12, 11:08 PM

I like the Angels at home... high juice, yes, but they are at home coming off good win, with Wilson against.... the Royals with Chen on the mound.

Sprinkle some to win a unit on the ML, and risk a unit on the RL. ^_-

Pill Gates · 07-22-12, 11:19 PM

Whens the best time to place a wager on games with so many line moves through out the day the night before or right before game time?

Johnnythunder · 07-23-12, 12:09 AM

good question

Utah_Jay · 07-23-12, 12:09 AM

Really like Seattle tomorrow. Milwood has been decent at times this year and Yankees in a slump. +147 at 5dimes right now.

EVPlus · 07-23-12, 12:36 AM

Ian Kennedy plays like he has scrub twin. One night, the real Ian (the one who knows how to pitch) shows up. Another night, his scrub twin (who always dreamt of playing the in show) fills in with horrendous results. The snakes are priced between -190 to about -197 depending on the book.

As Guthrie showed today, you can dress a dog in a different prom dress but you still have a dog. I don't think it will be much different with Sanchez in a Rockies uniform. Speaking of the Rockies, I would've thought they would play more inspired baseball with the recent tragedy in Aurora, Co. You would think these men (if they truly want to call themselves men) will bleed to bring something positive back to the state. A few W's on a baseball record isn't much compared to the loss that took place recently, but something is better than nothing. And for them to play mediocre ball the way they did today against the Pads (the Padres!) does not impress me at all.

But maybe, just maybe, they'll realize that they do owe something to the people of Colorado. And maybe, just maybe Kennedy will get too sloppy (snakes are 1-4 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series). This makes the current price too expensive for me.

*********************

^^^That was way too much rhetoric for a game I'm passing on (I'll blame it on the extra carbs I had for dinner).

I'm leaning the Under for the game OR the ff between Nats and Mets.

Nats played a double header today. Mets went 12 innings and ended up losing.

We got Zim against Young. Zim bested Young both times this season and they both have decent ERAs. Young wants his revenge. Zim doesn't want to be the douche that pitches a gem and regresses horrendously a la Harrison. Both should bring plenty motivation to the mound.

Also, Zim doesn't get the best run support (although that has changed somewhat).

Furthermore, both teams had very long days and I've noticed a trend for such teams (if they have a game the following day) to go under. If this game was being played earlier such as 1 eastern, it would make the decision easier for me.

If anyone else is interested in this angle and they have certain trends or pitcher stats that may be pertinent, it will be appreciated.

EVPlus · 07-23-12, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by Pill Gates

Whens the best time to place a wager on games with so many line moves through out the day the night before or right before game time?

If I feel really strong about a play and believe the price will only go up as the market matures (as in last week's third game between Bucs and Rockies), I'll grab the over night.

If I'm on the fence about a play and want to check line movements, I'll hold off (and anyone who wants to turn this into a line movement debate, kindly fukk off). Today's example was Brewers/Reds. I was leaning Cueto/Reds and, yes, they won. However, the line movement told me to back off. And if you watched the game, there were plenty of times where the momentum and the W could've shifted back to the Brewers.

If I'm going to play a dog, I'll often wait until game time when Joe Public pounds the faves and increases value in the dog.

If you want to play a fave and it's already expensive, sometimes (not always, sometimes) you can wait until just before game time when scalpers will bring the price of fave down to a more reasonable level. Yesterday's game between Bucs and Miami was a good example.

Thurgood · 07-23-12, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by EVPlus

I'm leaning the Under for the game OR the ff between Nats and Mets.

Nats played a double header today. Mets went 12 innings and ended up losing.

We got Zim against Young. Zim bested Young both times this season and they both have decent ERAs. Young wants his revenge. Zim doesn't want to be the douche that pitches a gem and regresses horrendously a la Harrison. Both should bring plenty motivation to the mound.

Also, Zim doesn't get the best run support (although that has changed somewhat).

Furthermore, both teams had very long days and I've noticed a trend for such teams (if they have a game the following day) to go under. If this game was being played earlier such as 1 eastern, it would make the decision easier for me.

If anyone else is interested in this angle and they have certain trends or pitcher stats that may be pertinent, it will be appreciated.

Zim pitched a scoreless 6 vs the Mets last week in this exact match-up.
Zim's ERA is trending down in his last 6 starts
Young and Zim both pitched 5 scoreless last Wednesday
Zim 0 ERA in last 12 innings pitched
LaRoche career vs Young .148
Jason Bay might be .455 career vs Zim but he's slumping and his homer last Wednesday came in a more friendly hitters park

Total currently at 8

R.P. McMurphy · 07-23-12, 03:02 AM

Like Twins myself and kinda like Boston actually as well No Coin. The Sox are not going to lose them all and tomorrow we have the lefty Doubrant who Boston usually gives good run support to facing the scrub Feldman. The way the Rangers bats looked tonight and getting home late from Anaheim makes this one interesting. Sox been bad lately but Rangers not setting the world on fire either!

EVPlus · 07-23-12, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Thurgood

Zim pitched a scoreless 6 vs the Mets last week in this exact match-up.
Zim's ERA is trending down in his last 6 starts
Young and Zim both pitched 5 scoreless last Wednesday
Zim 0 ERA in last 12 innings pitched
LaRoche career vs Young .148
Jason Bay might be .455 career vs Zim but he's slumping and his homer last Wednesday came in a more friendly hitters park

Total currently at 8

Did you take this play?

Thurgood · 07-23-12, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Did you take this play?

Yeah my only play of the day. Extra innings right now.

Thurgood · 07-23-12, 09:10 PM

Wow!!! I was even able to get it at 8.5 and still lost. Mets bullpen is horrible.

EVPlus · 07-23-12, 09:26 PM

Sorry to hear that and sorry if I pointed the compass in the wrong direction.

I was going to come back to this thread this morning and state my reservations about the bps for either team and the ff might be safer. I passed on this card altogether and was ready to congratulate you...but now karma is going to bite me in the ass.

Thurgood · 07-23-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Sorry to hear that and sorry if I pointed the compass in the wrong direction.

I was going to come back to this thread this morning and state my reservations about the bps for either team and the ff might be safer. I passed on this card altogether and was ready to congratulate you...but now karma is going to bite me in the ass.

No big deal. How often are that many runs scored in extra innings? If you lose by making the correct play, doesn't feel so bad. That's baseball.

EVPlus · 07-23-12, 10:39 PM

^^^Let me try and make it up somehow. Tomorrow night, stay away from the Cubs. Yes, they had that great win tonight and McDonald has been playing like...well, the McDonald's of major league pitchers (as in hamburger).

Now, I'm not saying chase the Bucs (especially at -156). However, I personally won't back the Cubs tomorrow night. I think the Bucs will go to bed knowing they got owned by the Cubs, their bats will wake the fukk up, and McDonald will also want to make amends for his poor showing against the Rockies last week.

The last time the Bucs got pawned by a lesser team - at home - was by the Twinkies. The next day, the results were quite different.

Again, I'm not saying take the Bucs but backing the Cubs is not something I advise. BOL

Thurgood · 07-23-12, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

^^^Let me try and make it up somehow. Tomorrow night, stay away from the Cubs. Yes, they had that great win tonight and McDonald has been playing like...well, the McDonald's of major league pitchers (as in hamburger).

Now, I'm not saying chase the Bucs (especially at -156). However, I personally won't back the Cubs tomorrow night. I think the Bucs will go to bed knowing they got owned by the Cubs, their bats will wake the fukk up, and McDonald will also want to make amends for his poor showing against the Rockies last week.

The last time the Bucs got pawned by a lesser team - at home - was by the Twinkies. The next day, the results were quite different.

Again, I'm not saying take the Bucs but backing the Cubs is not something I advise. BOL

Thanks man! Yeah the Cubs are one of those teams that can make your hours and hours of analyzing stats feel like crap but I really only feel good about playing their totals at Wrigley when I am in Chicago and I can see the flags (makes a huge difference). Not to say the flags blowing out always means bet the over but it helps quite a bit.

I might pass on tomorrow. Sometimes after a backdoor cover or bad loss, you just need to not watch the sport and reset your mind. Nice seeing another SBR member who doesn't gut bet every pick. BOL on your wagers!