St. Louis Cardinals SP Kyle Lohse Meets His Worst Nightmare Saturday

[Jeff Grant]

The St. Louis Cardinals were looking like a dangerous road underdog against the Cincinnati Reds - until I started capping Kyle Lohse’s five previous starts in umpire Andy Fletcher’s strike zone

-The OVER has cashed in all five of those outings
-The OVER is 10-4 in his 14 assignments behind home plate this year (9.36 rpg)
-Lohse’s teams are 1-4 in those outings (13.92 ERA, 18.1 IP, 28 ER)

[newbottles]

I was leaning Cardinals ML but this has spooked me and I will stay away. Better value elsewhere. Thanks for the keen insight, Jeff.

[2daBank]

jeff while i appreciate your post and also look at history with certain umps, i gotta tell you anything Loshe did before he met up with Dave Duncan in STL is absolutely meaningless imho as he wasnt much of a pitcher before that, and im pretty sure he has only pitched one time as a Cardinal with Fletcher, maybe 2 but i checked last night before i made bet and think 1 gm last yr that wasnt so bad and all the rest were pre 09...

[Jeff Grant]

jeff while i appreciate your post and also look at history with certain umps, i gotta tell you anything Loshe did before he met up with Dave Duncan in STL is absolutely meaningless imho as he wasnt much of a pitcher before that, and im pretty sure he has only pitched one time as a Cardinal with Fletcher, maybe 2 but i checked last night before i made bet and think 1 gm last yr that wasnt so bad and all the rest were pre 09...

Agree about Duncan - spent some time in the Cardinals media relations dept

[Thurgood]

Well this sucks. 0-2 already and well Lohse looked like the best dog on the board to chase with. I really hope I don't go 0-3 today.

[2daBank]

Well this sucks. 0-2 already and well Lohse looked like the best dog on the board to chase with. I really hope I don't go 0-3 today.

i seriously wouldnt worry about it too much man, no disrespect to jeff as i like his threads but as you can see below only 1 of those 5 gms jeff is talking about was after 06 (and in 06 loshe was a bum)...

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Year-by-Year: Andy Fletcher

Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link

	2001	0	1	.000	10.80	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.0	8	7	6	2	2	0	4	0	0		26	2.000	7.2	2.00
	2006	0	2	.000	21.60	3	3	0	0	0	0	8.1	21	20	20	2	3	0	6	1	0		49	2.880	6.5	2.00
	2011	1	0	1.000	3.60	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.0	6	4	2	0	2	0	4	0	0		21	1.600	7.2	2.00
	Career Total	1	3	.250	13.75	5	5	0	0	0	0	18.1	35	31	28	4	7	0	14	1	0		96	2.291	6.9	2.00

as you can see while he didnt go deep in the 1 gm as a cardinal he didnt get blown up like years ago when id imagine he got tagged with lots of umps behind the dish...certainly doesnt mean stl cant/wont lose just dont think this very relevant to Loshe circa 2012

[EVPlus]

This is a late post with the game about 10 minutes away. But I hope this helps anyone with a game-time decision on the ML.

Cardinals are 4-0 in Lohses last 4 Saturday starts.
Reds are 8-2 in Leakes last 10 Saturday starts.
EDGE: debatable

Cardinals are 8-1 in Lohses last 9 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Reds are 6-2 in Leakes last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
EDGE: debatable

Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Reds are 9-3 in their last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
EDGE: debatable

Cardinals are 5-17 in Lohses last 22 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Reds are 6-2 in Leakes last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
EDGE: CIN

Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
EDGE: STL

Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
EDGE: CIN

Home team is 4-0 in Fletchers last 4 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Home team is 4-1 in Fletchers last 5 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
Home team is 23-8 in Fletchers last 31 games behind home plate.
EDGE: CIN

Cardinals are 4-1 in Lohses last 5 starts vs. Reds.
Cardinals are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.
EDGE: debatable

[Walulu]

Hoping over hits, balls like to fly in cincy

[Jeff Grant]

May not have to worry about the starters in this game - just saw the updated weather forecast - rain is likely by the third inning

[EVPlus]

For those who use line movements in their decision making, there was noticeable steam between between 2:44 and 8:20 am in favor of the Reds with line going from -112 to -118. After that, it appeared to go through a natural correction cycle.

A little bit of late steam in favor of Cards but this I'm personally not giving much weight.

[2daBank]

May not have to worry about the starters in this game - just saw the updated weather forecast - rain is likely by the third inning

if this true you almost have to play over figuring lots of stl pen... then again i hate even being involved with gms that have weather concerns.

[Thurgood]

Well bol everyone! I'll be holding on for dear life in this spot

[Thurgood]

For those who use line movements in their decision making, there was noticeable steam between between 2:44 and 8:20 am in favor of the Reds with line going from -112 to -118. After that, it appeared to go through a natural correction cycle.

A little bit of late steam in favor of Cards but this I'm personally not giving much weight.

Got steamrolled by a line movement pick yesterday. Phillies popped to -210 for a short time and back to around -150. That was as road favorites, too!

[EVPlus]

Reds bp was used a bit more at 77 pitches against Cards 40. Take note that Chapman threw 15 pitches yesterday and may not close today.

Wind about 6mph in favor of the long ball with 65% humidity.

[EVPlus]

Got steamrolled by a line movement pick yesterday. Phillies popped to -210 for a short time and back to around -150. That was as road favorites, too!

What time did that steam occur? Thanks

[Thurgood]

What time did that steam occur? Thanks

Couple hours before game which is why I went big on the Phillies.

[Jeff Grant]

if this true you almost have to play over figuring lots of stl pen... then again i hate even being involved with gms that have weather concerns.

I feel the same way - ruins the flow of the game

[Thurgood]

What the heck! Thought Toronto had that wrapped up. C'mon Tribe!

[2daBank]

I feel the same way - ruins the flow of the game

no doubt, really anything goes after a nice long delay...guy in cincy said just scattered stuff w possible short delay later on..i honestly didnt check any weather last night as i was in rush to get done as i had to work early today..

[EVPlus]

Couple hours before game which is why I went big on the Phillies.

A couple of hours before game time can actually be late smart money. And a -200 to -150 is rather significant.

Obviously, anyone can be a genius capper after the game. However, there is a certain ebb and flow to tracking line movements. It's not just about chasing steam or ignoring it. BOL on your plays today.

[Thurgood]

A couple of hours before game time can actually be late smart money. And a -200 to -150 is rather significant.

Obviously, anyone can be a genius capper after the game. However, there is a certain ebb and flow to tracking line movements. It's not just about chasing steam or ignoring it. BOL on your plays today.

Line movement is tricky. Late smart money on Colorado would had me guessing -130 from -150.

GL to you as well!

[jlee]

trying to find an edge based on umpires is bs IMO. no disrespect to your capping, but first, an umpire shouldn't have an effect on an outcome of a game (unfortunately, with bad calls, in reality this isn't true), and secondly, a pitcher's performance shouldn't be blamed on the umpire. If a pitcher has control problems (high BB/9), then maybe I'd try to find the edge in umpires, but in reality shouldn't be a factor.

[Thurgood]

If LAD won last night then the Phillies were the only big fav that did not pay.

[Thurgood]

Furcal if you can't get on base then at least work Leake on pitches.

[Thurgood]

Lohse needs to work out of this spot.

[Thurgood]

Wtf that last pitch was in the zone.

[Thurgood]

Lohse held! Whew!

[Thurgood]

Beltran so hungover. Swingin' at pure crap.

[Jeff Grant]

trying to find an edge based on umpires is bs IMO. no disrespect to your capping, but first, an umpire shouldn't have an effect on an outcome of a game (unfortunately, with bad calls, in reality this isn't true), and secondly, a pitcher's performance shouldn't be blamed on the umpire. If a pitcher has control problems (high BB/9), then maybe I'd try to find the edge in umpires, but in reality shouldn't be a factor.

I disagree, but everyone has their way of capping games

[Thurgood]

So is it too early to call this over? STL has no answer for Leake.

[2daBank]

So is it too early to call this over? STL has no answer for Leake.

never over in baseball, cards score at some point, hopefully Loshe keeps it close cause he starting to labor ...if we can get rain delay maybe leake have to leave gm! need a delay, Loshe having issues in rain..

[Thurgood]

4 batters over 300 for STL and you get this crap...

[Thurgood]

Cards are batting like sh*t! 2 run lead in AL no biggie but these punks look hungover or something...

[Thurgood]

Wtf if that run in the 6th wins this sh*t game.. Of course Molina homers nobody on

[Thurgood]

Who is pinch hitting for Lohse???