Monday - 6-25-12

EXhoosier10 · 06-25-12, 09:23 AM

Axis, I'm not a huge fan of the avi, but I do agree with those first 4 plays.

White Sox line is fair considering Liriano has strung together a 2.67 ERA in his L5 with someting like a 3.2 xFIP. Oak, @Pit, and @KC, Cubs and Brewers aren't the best offenses, but he did shut 4 of the 5 down (0.92 WHIP as well). I expect peavy to regress as well (2.74 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 3.6 SIERA). If you think liriano is legit, you take Minnesota. If you don't, line should probably be sox -130, so not that far off.

A's and Mariners are too hard for me understand. No offenses, pitching is mediocre, and ballparks change everything. I have no opinion here.

brahmabull117 · 06-25-12, 09:33 AM

Tomlin is brutal. Yankees will pound his brains in I think

EXhoosier10 · 06-25-12, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Tomlin is brutal. Yankees will pound his brains in I think

Of course you do. That's why the line is set at -170; to make money off of people like you. Axis and I are saying that we don't believe that they will win 63% of the time, as a line of -170 suggests.

Axis · 06-25-12, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Of course you do. That's why the line is set at -170; to make money off of people like you. Axis and I are saying that we don't believe that they will win 63% of the time, as a line of -170 suggests.

Yes, the Indians are simply a value bet for me.

As far as the A's and Mariners: The way I cap is heavily based on recent success/failure of offense and defense. The Mariner's have been giving up A LOT of runs lately, and the A's haven't...Mariners have been scoring slightly more, but not enough in my opinion. Once again, another value in that I think Oakland should have been around -160...(this is based on neutral settings) so I then checked the pitching matchup...neither have been great, but Malone has been better (lower ERA and a MUCH lower WHIP)...therefore I'll roll with it.