Going with a trend here: San Diego/Texas over 7. (Day game)

TheBack · 06-20-12, 03:35 PM

U know what that means im on the UNDER.

Its so easy to win just find threads like this and FADE.

hezawizard · 06-20-12, 03:40 PM

lol, yea fade cuz man just run through some numbers to justify his call, and wanted to share his thoughts to help others who cant decide what to pick, yea real smart, he should just say "LOCK OF THE DAY" next time, right.

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:44 PM

Hey this is an open forum, I can post what I want. What I DON'T DO however is troll peoples picks without valid explanation unlike you two fools. If you want to fade me go ahead, I really don't care.

ajcobb22 · 06-20-12, 03:44 PM

Crap....I had the over too.....now I'm screwed....better go hedge

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by ajcobb22

Crap....I had the over too.....now I'm screwed....better go hedge

Go hedge, please it will make this that much better.

3 trolls in under 10mins of posting, I can see ppl have doubts about this! Makes me happy.

TheBack · 06-20-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by hezawizard

lol, yea fade cuz man just run through some numbers to justify his call, and wanted to share his thoughts to help others who cant decide what to pick, yea real smart, he should just say "LOCK OF THE DAY" next time, right.

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by hezawizard

lol, yea fade cuz man just run through some numbers to justify his call, and wanted to share his thoughts to help others who cant decide what to pick, yea real smart, he should just say "LOCK OF THE DAY" next time, right.

Wow great analysis bro, those are some great 3rd, 4th place trophies you've got there

a4u2fear · 06-20-12, 03:52 PM

the guy makes a decent explanation and half the forum is going to fade because they think they know jack. the threads to fade are ones stating lock or all in etc.

fading this or trolling the guy is fukking stupid.

ajcobb22 · 06-20-12, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Go hedge, please it will make this that much better.

3 trolls in under 10mins of posting, I can see ppl have doubts about this! Makes me happy.

More of trolling the troller....I in fact like this play. Some more stats for you is that Darvish sucks against teams that draw walks (Oakland, Seattle and Cleveland) and Bass' daytime ERA is 6. I liked it but have been scared by line movement. I love doubting myself

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by TheBack

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.

Well if by that you mean FADE the public ok I understand that given the majority of the public are on the over. I'm going with a trend I spotted with San Diego in these day games. Fading the public is profitable over time, but some plays are more obvious than we make them.

Gamble32jn · 06-20-12, 03:55 PM

i like the Over for sure here. Seems almost to easy but TX chalked that high and the RL being -110....practically saying astros score only 1-2 runs and TX scores the rest. Im firing the Over here for a shell here myself.

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:56 PM

I take all the respon. in my posting my plays. At least I have the balls to put my name behind them unlike many on this forum.

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by ajcobb22

More of trolling the troller....I in fact like this play. Some more stats for you is that Darvish sucks against teams that draw walks (Oakland, Seattle and Cleveland) and Bass' daytime ERA is 6. I liked it but have been scared by line movement. I love doubting myself

Lets get it then bro.

The UNDER should be the play here, there has been some recent line movement pounding the under, earlier in the day the over had some play. Seemingly an even distribution in the last 2 hours. But Pads have scored with relative consistency in day games.

72'RoseBowlChamp · 06-20-12, 04:19 PM

I like the over here Jago as well, gunna toss a good amount on it .... What do you think on the Pads over 3 runs? As for THE BACK ?? Whats your deal ? All you do is talk shit on everyones post .... I think you have posted the word fade over 20 times today ... Go find something else to do

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by TheBack

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.

Here is the irony of this "system." Eventually, others will read your posts and decide to fade you. In the long run, the law of averages will catch up to you as well as those who fade you. Eventually, all involved will be lucky to break even.

I'm not saying the over will hit. I'm also not saying the under is a good play either, given what I've seen with Texas bats/Darvish/Pads. I am saying it's best to actually put some thought into a play and manage the bankroll intelligently. If not, you're saying "tails" just because someone else called "heads" and the juice will bleed you dry.

Jago2008 · 06-20-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by 72'RoseBowlChamp

I like the over here Jago as well, gunna toss a good amount on it .... What do you think on the Pads over 3 runs? As for THE BACK ?? Whats your deal ? All you do is talk shit on everyones post .... I think you have posted the word fade over 20 times today ... Go find something else to do

Honestly that's not a bad line, it was + money earlier in the day too. I just have trouble backing the Pads in what might be a push on that line. I'd rather rely on the offense of two teams, one in particular that has been leading the MLB in avg, and runs.

This one just screamed at me.

That's just my personal approach to this.

convick · 06-20-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by TheBack

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.

if you say so, it must be true.

JMon · 06-20-12, 04:28 PM

like the over here as well, gl

hezawizard · 06-20-12, 04:29 PM

lol whats the problem jago, I was on your side here

72'RoseBowlChamp · 06-20-12, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Here is the irony of this "system." Eventually, others will read your posts and decide to fade you. In the long run, the law of averages will catch up to you as well as those who fade you. Eventually, all involved will be lucky to break even.

I'm not saying the over will hit. I'm also not saying the under is a good play either, given what I've seen with Texas bats/Darvish/Pads. I am saying it's best to actually put some thought into a play and manage the bankroll intelligently. If not, you're saying "tails" just because someone else called "heads" and the juice will bleed you dry.

Thats what im sayin! Everyone on here should chill out and work together to beat Vegas instead of all the BS that actually does go on on here.... Back to the game ... So Bass has given up 20 ER in last 4 games .... How isnt the over a good play here against the best offense in baseball ?? Hamilton being back too

ajcobb22 · 06-20-12, 04:32 PM

in the last hour the OVER has been pounded.....jumped from 77% of bets to 84%

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 04:49 PM

Here are the O/U trends from across the street.

OVER TRENDS

Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Over is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 5-1 in Darvishs last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 games a home underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 8-2 in Padres last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Padres last 8 games following a loss.
Over is 6-2 in Padres last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 10-4 in Padres last 14 on grass.
Over is 10-4 in Padres last 14 overall.
Over is 10-4 in Padres last 14 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-3-1 in Padres last 11 interleague games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 7-3-1 in Padres last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Bass' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-0-1 in Bass' last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0-1 in Bass' last 5 starts as an underdog.
Over is 4-0-1 in Bass' last 5 starts overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in Bass' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Bass' last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bass' last 5 home starts.

moshi · 06-20-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by TheBack

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.

I was wondering since when you became a troll? Sure, go ahead and fade the forum, but you're being fking obnoxious about it. At the end of the day, you're going to look fking stupid and everyone is going to call out your broke-a$s. You just lost everyone's respect by fading guys who actually wrote legit reasons for their picks. BTW, Dbacks leading 14-6 right now. Glad you're losing your money on Seattle.

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 04:51 PM

UNDER TRENDS:

Under is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 interleague road games.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Under is 8-3 in Rangers last 11 vs. National League West.
Under is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Darvishs last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 games as a home underdog of +151 to +200.
Under is 5-2 in Padres last 7 interleague home games.
der is 13-6-2 in Padres last 21 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.

TheBack · 06-20-12, 04:51 PM

Wow i did not mean to cause all this.

All i ment was that everytime i read a post that seams to be dead on with thier write up. Its loses. Not saying u suck or cant cap. Just saying that im going agianst logic and doing the op of what everybody is doing. That seems to be working for me. Not meant as a slight on u. Hell i hope u win. I am pretty numb to crazy unreal loses and backwards sh1t happening to me it doesnt bother me.

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 04:53 PM

Umpire Trends

Under is 4-0 in Knights last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate.

Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games with Knight behind home plate.

Over is 4-0 in Knights last 4 interleague games behind home plate vs. Texas.

Over is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games behind home plate vs. Texas.

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by TheBack

Wow i did not mean to cause all this.

All i ment was that everytime i read a post that seams to be dead on with thier write up. Its loses. Not saying u suck or cant cap. Just saying that im going agianst logic and doing the op of what everybody is doing. That seems to be working for me. Not meant as a slight on u. Hell i hope u win. I am pretty numb to crazy unreal loses and backwards sh1t happening to me it doesnt bother me.

I wasn't hating on you. You do have a point in that most people who post plays on this or other threads are fade-worthy.

But if someone takes the time out of his day to give a pick and follow it with a write up, it's usually considered poor manners to jump in on the thread with an "I'm fading you" type of response. Similar to going into someone else's house and criticizing his taste in furniture.

TheBack · 06-20-12, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

I wasn't hating on you. You do have a point in that most people who post plays on this or other threads are fade-worthy.

But if someone takes the time out of his day to give a pick and follow it with a write up, it's usually considered poor manners to jump in on the thread with an "I'm fading you" type of response. Similar to going into someone else's house and criticizing his taste in furniture.

U know what ur right. Im used to people talking so much trash that got in deffensive mode. Agian i hope the guy wins. Just logic seems to go out the window in these games latley so i been doing op. If the guy who started the thread took offense i can understand how it seemed.
I was in another thread and had people talking trash so when i came to this thread i was already in azzhole mode.

breakingbad · 06-20-12, 05:04 PM

[QUOTE=TheBack;15134242]Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.[/QUOTE
Howd fadind the dbacks work out for ya ?

TheBack · 06-20-12, 05:14 PM

[QUOTE=breakingbad;15135252]

Originally posted by TheBack

Nothing personal. My new system is to fade these types of threads. Fade everything really. Has been working.[/QUOTE
Howd fadind the dbacks work out for ya ?

Well i have to be honest it hasnt gone as good as i would have liked it to.

EVPlus · 06-20-12, 05:16 PM

-DAY GAMES:

Texas is 9-10 in Over/Unders this season.

Pads 15-12

Texas is averaging 4.1 runs per gam in Day games this season.

Pads averaging 4.5 runs per game in Day games this season.

**********************

Darvish era is 4.53 in his last eight starts. Washington was quoted as saying, "...he's going to continue to gain knowledge quicker than anybody thought he would." On the surface, that shows Ron's confidence in Yu. I also interpret that as meaning that Ron feels Yu still has alot to learn. In other words, I think we need to hold our collective breath in terms of Darvish pitching many shut outs at this point in his career.

Bass era is 8.89 in his last 5 starts. He was quoted as saying, "Right now, I feel like I've lost it [confidence]."

************************

BOL which ever side you take. Right now, I like Texas over on the TT and don't mind eating chalk on Texas -1.

TheBack · 06-20-12, 05:23 PM

Balls are flying out today everywhere.

TheBack · 06-20-12, 05:33 PM

They say Darvish doesnt like the heat and humid air. That could be something to watch with him.

jbart28 · 06-20-12, 05:54 PM

the umps are on the over as well. They are squeezing darvish and they missed and obvious non check swing.