Talk about an inflated line. Again, I love Verlander as much as anyone, but from a sheer gambling standpoint, I don't know how you can lay -160 on the Tigers tonight given the rest of the team's current form. All things considered, I see about 20 cents of value here. Verlander will have to carry them to victory here, which I suppose is possible, but he'll have little margin for error as per usual. I just wish Bard wasn't such a walking machine lately. Still, I think this is Boston or nothing here.
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not a bad play, but pedroia being out would scare me a bit and Bard is really awful as a starter (although tigers offense has massively underachieved this year)Comment -
Bard avg 4 BB last 4. I see Det scoring a minimum of 4-5 runs here. Can the sox get to Verlander for more than that? What are Gonzo and Ortiz lifetime against JV?Comment -
I have a hard time backing this Red Sox team b/c of their suspect pen. When you have Vicente Padilla and Alfredo Aceves closing games it doesn't any dicer then that. Plus, I just don't think they're even that good this season.Comment -
both these teams are very overvalued by Vegas this year really
Man more and more I look at Bard's numbers, the more I want to play the Tigers. He's given up more walks than strikeouts and he's actually very lucky to only have a 4.70 era (a mediocre number in itself). Bard's whip and K to BB ratio would suggest an era closer to 7
I think Tigers score 4 or 5 runs in this game. Can Sox get 4 or 5 runs off Verlander?Comment -
brahma, where do you get that his ERA should be 6 or 7? is that just fuzzy math you are throwing out there? his FIP is right in line with his ERA...im not saying bard is great but he is not "due for regression"
as for the sox bullpen, has anyone actually watched them lately? theyve been above average this month...sure they started out shaky but now with defined roles, they are coming along...aceves has the stuff to be a closer in the MLB...aside from the blown save vs. tampa he has been good
verlander better throw 8+ innings because if the sox get to that bullpen then forget about it. combine that with the funky line movement, the public (and brahmabull) all over the tigers...im laying a unit on the sox. BOLComment -
a 1.56 whip and more bbs than Ks is really in line with a 4.70 era? That's surprising to me. I would figure about a 1.40 whip and maybe 1.3 k to bb ratio would be a 4.70 era. Maybe you're right
I'm a little baffled by your point about the tigers bullpen. Verlander almost always goes 7 or 8 and Benoit/Dotel are fantastic in the setup role (Very low ERA). Valverde has converted about 90% of his saves over the last 2 seasons
Also you have very little credibility when you tell me the public being on one side is a legitimate betting reason. When are people like you gonna learn that the public always hits around 50% ATS? Public being on one side or the other means absolutely nothingComment -
its not the end all be all, but if 80% of the public is on the tigers and the line is not moving or if its dropping, and that doesnt tell you anything, then i cant help you...
easy to say valverde closed 90% of his games over this and last year, because he closed 100% of his games last year..which anyone who knows baseball knows was a fluke...you wanna talk about "due for regression"? that guy is your posterboy...any closer with almost as many walks as strikeouts, a 4.66ERA and above all, a 1.66 WHIP, is not a shutdown option, especially against a lineup as potent as the red sox...i hope verlander goes 8 and valverde blows the save that would be the ultimate...the guy is an absolute gas-can, i take aceves over him every day and twice on sundaysComment -
Line movement based plays mean nothing. Look at No Coin's mediocre record this year and all he does is line movement based plays
There's a million reasons why Vegas does what it does. I don't pay any attention to it because Vegas has the luxury of hitting 50% and making billions
None of us here have that luxury
easy to say valverde closed 90% of his games over this and last year, because he closed 100% of his games last year..which anyone who knows baseball knows was a fluke...you wanna talk about "due for regression"? that guy is your posterboy...any closer with almost as many walks as strikeouts, a 4.66ERA and above all, a 1.66 WHIP, is not a shutdown option, especially against a lineup as potent as the red sox...i hope verlander goes 8 and valverde blows the save that would be the ultimate...the guy is an absolute gas-can, i take aceves over him every day and twice on sundays
This year has been a fluke for Valverde though. He has a career 1.19 whip and more Ks than innings pitched
He won't have a 4 era or a 1.66 whip all seasonComment -
One thing is certain, you don't lay -160 on the road ever No matter what.Comment -
red sox +150 @ home is an auto playComment -
bard sucks ass, verlander will outpitch him every time. detroit is the playComment -
game will be decided by the bullpens. +150 is goodComment -
better price for tiger backers now.....Comment -
Looks like it could be a good play but Bard is shaky in the starter's role.Comment -
small sample size, but Bard hasn't had 3 bad starts in a row yet. I think it'll be a 3-2 type game when both starters leaveComment -
say what you want about nocoin, he delivered today!
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game will be called soon- going to pour in a bitComment -
verlander overratedComment -
Why did I only put .5 units on this?
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I put 1 unit
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I got sox for +145 as well. Fukking Tampa Bay fukks me everytime i bet them. Still cant fukking win on that sucky ass team!!!!! Fukk i hate themComment -
**** the Tigers. Love Leyland, love Cabrera, but I cannot catch a break.Comment -
N.C. great call
i went the other wayComment -
Make another genius call tomorrow and I'll follow.Comment
