Two bizarre lines for Sunday

[No coincidences]

Correia/Pittsburgh +163 against a struggling Scherzer in Detroit
Chen/Baltimore +147 against Strasburg in Washington

At least 20 cents higher than they should be in my book. At least.

[lunchbawks]

PITTSBURGH is going to win the game

[aznbluff]

Baltimore I agree

Correia is an average at best pitcher who is having a good start to the year and due for a slight correction. Also an impotent offense that isn't deep, which will become even more of a factor with a DH.

[No coincidences]

PITTSBURGH is going to win the game

Not sure if I'd be 100% confident in that, but there is definite value in that number.

[No coincidences]

Baltimore I agree

Correia is an average at best pitcher who is having a good start to the year and due for a slight correction. Also an impotent offense that isn't deep, which will become even more of a factor with a DH.

Scherzer is really struggling right now. Of course that could end vs. an offense like Pittsburgh's, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Correia has always been a solid road pitcher.

[pimike]

Like em both. Correria hasn't pitched well himself however.

[aznbluff]

Correia is 1-4 with 4.5 ERA and still due for a correction (regression) based on his advanced stats compared to his career ones. Couple that with a far weaker offense that isnt deep to begin with and built around having to only have 8 batters in the lineup on a regular basis.

Scherzer struggling and should see some correction to his mean as well (improvement), a game against a weak offense is a strong candidate for improving those numbers. He's not a very good pitcher either, average at best, but better than Correia for sure.

Tigers should rightfully be about in the -160 range here, most of the value is swallowed up in the vig.

[brahmabull117]

I see literally nothing I like tomorrow, damn it



Might just stick with NBA and pacers

[hardball]

Stasburg over priced By 20 cents?

I don't see it...

[No coincidences]

Stasburg over priced By 20 cents?

I don't see it...

Against what has been the ace of the first-place team in the AL East?

[Vinnie Paz]

I see literally nothing I like tomorrow, damn it



Might just stick with NBA and pacers

Chicago Under or is that too obvious and/or squarish lol

[lunchbawks]

Not sure if I'd be 100% confident in that, but there is definite value in that number.

detroit pitcing is horriuble aside from verlander. detroit isn't even good, no speed on the bases, bad defence, only a couple power hitters that get now and then

[No coincidences]

detroit pitcing is horriuble aside from verlander. detroit isn't even good, no speed on the bases, bad defence, only a couple power hitters that get now and then

I'm a Tiger fan and I can't disagree with a single thing you just said. They play baseball the wrong way -- just hoping to out-slug you when it starts getting hot.

[face]

playing a lot of dogs tomorrow, hope i'm right

[hardball]

Against what has been the ace of the first-place team in the AL East?

With an xFip differential approaching 2.0. After Strasburg got screwed on his last start by the rain and "icyhot...".

Chen's fast ball is impressive. Hides the ball very well.

But his lack of whiffs on his slider and curve (somewhere around 11.5 %) coupled with his high xFip smell like slight regression for me.

I've been running stagnate lately, which means Baltimore probably rolls...

[paco]

detroit pitcing is horriuble aside from verlander. detroit isn't even good, no speed on the bases, bad defence, only a couple power hitters that get now and then

Tigers will be In the alcs

[smoovethug]

Can't touch DET here. Scherzer is very inefficient and fails to work deep into games often enough. Meaning you may see 3-4 innings of DET's pen (27th in ERA). PIT or OVER for me.

[IGWBM]

MAD Max last start was pathetic.

[Big Bear]

No coincidences don't worry so much about the lines. Just bet on who you think is going to win. I saw you doubting Kershaw and Dodgers last night saying there was value taking +130 on the red birds. Don't over think it man.

That being said I think Orioles is a good bet today. Strasburg will be out of the game by the 7th inning.

[agendaman]

utter confusion

[HoulihansTX]

Orioles for sure

[LoneStar]

Like it as well

PIT
O's
CIN

[Redscot]

Due to advanced stats and blah blah blah, I am not so sure about the Detroit game, but you know your Tigers better than I.

I do agree about the Balty game. Nat's are bottom 2 in creating runs against LHP and have never seen Chen. If Chen came keep them in this early, and Stras hit's the showers after 6 as usual it's anyone's game. Does seem that the key elements of the Nat's pen are better rested though....Strop has been used in 3 straight and Johnson has pitched 3 of the last 4....GL on your plays today

[Mikail]

Balty's a winner today.

[LT Profits]

I actually have no problem with the Strasburg line. Chen is OK but his FIP (3.42) lags behind his ERA (2.45), whereas Stras ranks fourth in the majors in FIP (2.38) and second in xFIP (2.66) and you can ignore his last start (although the Hot Stuff story is funny after the fact).

[LT Profits]

Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 2.39): Strasburg was the FIP leader in our initial update two weeks ago, but he has only looked like himself once in his last three starts. That was a superb outing vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates where he struck out 13 batters in six innings, but it was sandwiched between two mediocre efforts with his last outing vs. the San Diego Padres being his worst start of the year. Strasburg was touched up for four runs and seven hits in just four innings, but to be fair, he was dealing with a variety of issues ranging from a brief rain delay to a soggy rosin bag to some Hot Stuff getting to what Manager Davey Johnson described as “the wrong place”. While that last part may add some comedy relief after the fact, Strasburg was feeling anything but relief at the time. We’d be inclined to just toss that effort and refer to his overall numbers, which still have him at 3-1 with 56 strikeouts against 12 walks in 48 innings with the league hitting .214 off of him. As long as he avoids the Hot Stuff, he will be just fine.

[biggie1]

Speaking of regression, Orioles are going for the sweep of the Nats at home with Strasburg on the bump. Does it scare anyone betting on a team to get a sweep?Against Strasburg to boot. Seems like O's as a team are due to regress.