Verlander at home against the Pirates?? Is it worth the risk?!

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  • nrok2118
    SBR MVP
    • 02-10-12
    • 1182

    #1
    Verlander at home against the Pirates?? Is it worth the risk?!
    I mean its one of (if not THE) best pitcher in the league, at home, against the Pirates?! -250 is A LOT but you dont pay juice when you win.

    Anyone have a good reason not to take this?
  • nrok2118
    SBR MVP
    • 02-10-12
    • 1182

    #2
    "
    Few pitchers in recent years have dominated Interleague Play like Verlander, 15-2 with a 2.94 ERA for his career against the National League. He won all three of his Interleague starts last year, allowing two runs on 15 hits over 24 innings."


    Comment
    • taxe91
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-16-12
      • 610

      #3
      could take the -1.5 if you dont want the juice
      Comment
      • nrok2118
        SBR MVP
        • 02-10-12
        • 1182

        #4
        Originally posted by taxe91
        could take the -1.5 if you dont want the juice

        I dont play runlines, everytime I do they win by 1 and it drives me insane
        Comment
        • antifoil
          SBR MVP
          • 11-11-09
          • 3993

          #5
          what percentage chance do you think the tigers win?
          Comment
          • nrok2118
            SBR MVP
            • 02-10-12
            • 1182

            #6
            Originally posted by antifoil
            what percentage chance do you think the tigers win?
            I think at least 70%-80%...whats that translate to moneyline wise?
            Comment
            • JMon
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-11-09
              • 9800

              #7
              Verlander is 10-1 at home in his career in interleague play. Respectable, he is 8-3 on the RL in those starts. Yet his average win margin by 2.8. Further, the Tigers as a team are very good interleague team. Since 2004, as a home fav they are 47-16. However, they never had a losing season until last where they went 4-5 as a home fav. Yet, Verlander was two of those wins.

              Ideally, it's a solid play, but I personally do not play home RL's due to the moderate percentage of home team not batting in the bottom of the ninth. I will probably play them in a 2T parlay(only) or -1, or just pass.

              gl
              Comment
              • antifoil
                SBR MVP
                • 11-11-09
                • 3993

                #8
                10 percent is a wide range. you should narrow it down more.
                Comment
                • JMon
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 9800

                  #9
                  I have Verlander at 16-6 career in interleague play...

                  Losses...

                  10-21-06 v. STL
                  10-27-06 v. STL
                  06-16-08 v. SF
                  06-16-09 v. STL
                  06-29-09 v. HOU
                  06-22-10 v. NYM
                  Comment
                  • nrok2118
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-10-12
                    • 1182

                    #10
                    Gonna be a nice sunny day, Friday evening game coming off a loss to a bad team at home (no travel)...they bounce back hard under their ace against an inferior team....80%
                    Comment
                    • mbs4
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 05-14-10
                      • 388

                      #11
                      Originally posted by nrok2118
                      I think at least 70%-80%...whats that translate to moneyline wise?
                      -233 to -400
                      Comment
                      • antifoil
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-11-09
                        • 3993

                        #12
                        yeah that shows you how far off you are at guessing. when was the last time you saw a mlb team at -400 for 80 percent chance?
                        Comment
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