Analysis for the OVER in the Phillie - Cubs game

[okbyme123]

Play the OVER (o7 + 105) in the Phillie - Cubs game for these reasons.


Reason 1. Pitchers have a 5.59 and 7.94 era in last 3 games.

Starters | In-Depth | Starting Staffs

Overall	W/L	TW/TL	IP	H	WHIP	ERA	AF	AA	O/U
Roy Halladay (R) Chris Volstad (R)	3-3 0-5	3-5 0-7	56.1 39.0	49 45	1.08 1.46	3.20 6.92	3.9 2.6	4.4 6.4	5-3 4-3
Last 3	W/L	TW/TL	IP	H	WHIP	ERA	AF	AA	O/U
Roy Halladay (R) Chris Volstad (R)	0-1 0-2	0-3 0-3	19.1 17.0	24 21	1.34 1.71	5.59 7.94	5.3 2.3	7.3 6.3	2-1 2-1

Reason 2. Both teams are over 6 of last 10 games.
Reason 3. Both pens have over a 6 era last 10 games
Reason 4. Both teams hitting well vs. Righties last 10 games.

Last 10 | In-Depth

	W/L	O/U	Avg	ERA
PHI CHC	6-4 5-5	6-3 6-4	.288 .248	3.46 4.32
	vs R	vs L	Start	Pen
PHI CHC	.298 .254	.217 .198	2.36 3.36	6.85 6.19

Reason 4. Neither pitcher has performed well against opposing team.

ROY HALLADAY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997 HALLADAY is 1-5 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.222. His team's record is 1-5 (-8.6 units) in these starts.

CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997 VOLSTAD is 2-5 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.606. His team's record is 3-10 (-6.2 units) in these starts.

[CHAZ]

First off good luck to you, but in my opinion your trends don't have much sample size to back the play.



Davis, tonights ump, has a 61% on strikes called and that plays to your favor.

[okbyme123]

First off good luck to you, but in my opinion your trends don't have much sample size to back the play.



Davis, tonights ump, has a 61% on strikes called and that plays to your favor.

Thanks for the reply Chaz. See below and help me understand what you meant by not being able to move off key numbers?


Originally Posted by No coincidences
And this, my friends, is why you don't play totals.

What a joke.



You kidding me? Yea you have those bad beats but baseball totals is your best bet. My favorite anyways. Oddmakers don't have much room to move off of key numbers.

[CHAZ]

7, 9, and 11 are considered key numbers. These numbers hover around the leagues run average. A one run game will land on a odd number so bottom of the 9th win or extra innings is usually by 1.

Oddsmakers will adjust the odds on each side of a total before moving the number.

Also, a total at say 8.5 is alot more likely to move to 9 then to 8.

[okbyme123]

7, 9, and 11 are considered key numbers. These numbers hover around the leagues run average. A one run game will land on a odd number so bottom of the 9th win or extra innings is usually by 1.

Oddsmakers will adjust the odds on each side of a total before moving the number.

Also, a total at say 8.5 is alot more likely to move to 9 then to 8.

Thanks Chaz ... great info!