interesting stats and a question for those who like to play the -1.5 RL

[taxe91]

all stats below are from 2011:

in 53 wins against sub-.500 teams, the yankees won 45 by 2 runs or more

in 65 wins against sub-.500 teams, phillies won 49 games by 2 runs or more

in 61 wins against sub-.500 teams, texas won 48 games by 2 runs or more

now so far in 2012 its been the blue jays, rangers (again) and the orioles that are beating up on sub-.500 teams but i expect that to change as the season progresses.

assuming we are offered odds greater than or equal to +100 on -1.5 run lines in these situations, is this a sucker bet or easy value?

for example the rangers -1.5 against the .500 athletics is offering +105 tomorrow.

[wtt0315]

the one problem I see is you don't know what teams will be like this at the end until the end. Its easy to look at stats after the season is over

[floridagolfer]

Over the course of a season, getting +100 or better doesn't happen as often as you'd think. It's much lower than 50 percent of the time.

[sweep]

Over the course of a season, getting +100 or better doesn't happen as often as you'd think. It's much lower than 50 percent of the time.

you gotta figure the really good teams would be -220/-240 against sub .500 teams most of the time. That would amount to a RL of -1.5 -120 range

[milwaukee mike]

Over the course of a season, getting +100 or better doesn't happen as often as you'd think. It's much lower than 50 percent of the time.

much lower than 50%??
i don't agree with that at all

detroit is playing the worst team in baseball today (minn), with a huge pitching advantage detroit is -210 and the run line is still +120

almost every home team of -220 or less will be + money on the run line
and not too many road teams are more than -180

[milwaukee mike]

i would hit the run line every time it's + with the rangers

against "sub .500 teams" it probably happens 50 times and you will win 30 of them

[BigDaddy]

detroit is playing the worst team in baseball today (minn), with a huge pitching advantage detroit is -210 and the run line is still +120

what book has +120 ?

[taxe91]

the one problem I see is you don't know what teams will be like this at the end until the end. Its easy to look at stats after the season is over

i would expect the rangers to continue their dominance of 'weak' teams, they are an improved side from last year. the yankees are a bit shaky due to their pitching issues and i dont think ive played a single phillies RL let alone ML this year at all, avoiding them like the plague.

there are teams in the AL that are destined to finish sub-.500: twins, mariners, athletics. then theres some iffy ones: orioles, royals, white sox.

[taxe91]

Over the course of a season, getting +100 or better doesn't happen as often as you'd think. It's much lower than 50 percent of the time.

you gotta figure the really good teams would be -220/-240 against sub .500 teams most of the time. That would amount to a RL of -1.5 -120 range

correct, not all the games come out at +100, but occasionally the odds will blow out. for example the nats -1.5 (at home) against the non-existent offence of the pirates is +160, i find that really strange especially factoring in home field advantage.

i would hit the run line every time it's + with the rangers

against "sub .500 teams" it probably happens 50 times and you will win 30 of them

this is pretty much where i was going with the thread, if i can get + odds and it wins more often than not, it should be a solid play right?

just seemed too straightforward when i actually looked back through the statistics, i'll have to dig deeper

[milwaukee mike]

what book has +120 ?

i think i was screwed up and looking at yesterday