Save your money and do NOT bet the "No" on score in the 1st inning...

jbart28 · 05-17-12, 01:55 AM

+ money yes has value for sure. I like to check stats of teams for fist inning production and cross reference it with pitchers first inning stats. Weather and obp seal the deal

NittanyLionsFan · 05-17-12, 01:57 AM

lol @ thinking that "yes" at + money is automatic value

or that "yes" is automatic value period

are you guys really that stupid? lmao

jbart28 · 05-17-12, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by NittanyLionsFan

lol @ thinking that "yes" at + money is automatic value

or that "yes" is automatic value period

are you guys really that stupid? lmao

In certain spots it has value for sure. Just like a lot of wagers it depends on several variables that lead to variance. Determining price and measuring it against the statistical analysis along with current offensive trends and weather,umpires, will allow one to decide. These are high variance plays obviously.

I have bet this type of play 5 times this year and I am 3-2

HoulihansTX · 05-17-12, 02:16 AM

Learn how to handicap leadoff hitters.

When Juan Pierre was not washed up, he could get on 3rd base with 1 out in the first inning like no one else.

jbart28 · 05-17-12, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Learn how to handicap leadoff hitters.

When Juan Pierre was not washed up, he could get on 3rd base with 1 out in the first inning like no one else.

That is the problem with first inning bets. Not many prolific lead off hitters anymore. How many lead off hitters lead their teams in obp or walks? Gone are the days of lou brock, rickey henderson, vince coleman, tim raines

HoulihansTX · 05-17-12, 02:37 AM

Micheal Bourn Atl CF OBP.399

He is having a monster May also.

steelheaddan · 05-17-12, 02:55 AM

Did it once this year with Hamels facing the Nats $495 to win $300. First 5 batters retired, Hamels hits Bryce Harper, base hit sends Harper to 3rd, Harper steals home on a pickoff move....... UGH! Nice work Hamels....

taxe91 · 05-17-12, 03:16 AM

i see a lot of people blind betting it but theres value in it for people who do their research too.

for example i think hiroki kuroda has given one up in at least half his starts, so any odds greater than +100 are good plays

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 10:22 AM

nos have value too. u just have to check your trends and stay away from great pitchers as they r not worth the juice. guy like felix hernandez always has high juice on no, but he struggles consistently in 1st, then settles down. yanks this year have been great yes bet: 24y 13 n.

downtown2222 · 05-17-12, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by NittanyLionsFan

lol @ thinking that "yes" at + money is automatic value

or that "yes" is automatic value period

are you guys really that stupid? lmao

never once did I auto. value?

I really don't think there is "value" in either side...BUT if you are playing these props, I would say that the "yes" side has more value over the long run.

Only reason I started this thread was I seen a lot of posters betting this.

PS - I havent bet one of these in many years...It's basically a coin flip. Total could be 6.5 and they give up 1 in the first and never let up another run the entire game. I think if you like the no score 1st inning, the 1st 5 inning under bet might be better.

downtown2222 · 05-17-12, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

nos have value too. u just have to check your trends and stay away from great pitchers as they r not worth the juice. guy like felix hernandez always has high juice on no, but he struggles consistently in 1st, then settles down. yanks this year have been great yes bet: 24y 13 n.

Good points

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 10:41 AM

downtown dont bother justifying.. u made some great points. i think there is value in anything if u go about it the right way. a lot of degens turn to no runs because its quick fix and u know in 20 minutes whether u win. one caveat to people who do this as a chase tho as im sure most know: books usually limit to 500 or so on these, so a 3 game chase can be tough. this prop is basically a loaded coin flip unless u do your homework, and april is a bitch cuz there r no numbers, but there is def money to be made.

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 10:42 AM

but i agree: books know what they r doing. not much value with high juice.

crackerjack · 05-17-12, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by steelheaddan

Did it once this year with Hamels facing the Nats $495 to win $300. First 5 batters retired, Hamels hits Bryce Harper, base hit sends Harper to 3rd, Harper steals home on a pickoff move....... UGH! Nice work Hamels....

Ouch...especially since it was intentional. Oh how I wish Washington would have won that game 1-0.

crackerjack · 05-17-12, 10:52 AM

I'd have to check but right now I think it's no 53 percent and yes 47 percent. Some days it's all yes and others all no...odd like that. St louis scored in first in like 8 straight recently.

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 11:35 AM

nats and pirates are both on 4 or 5 game yes streaks too. would play no but i am assuming zimm and mcdonald will be pretty high juice.

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 05:02 PM

pirates on 5 game yes streak; nationals on 6 game yes streak. I have stats for every team up to this poit if anyone want me to post them. other teams right now on streaks: rays on 5 game no, jays on 5 game no and only 2 yeses this month. reds on 4 game no. padres 4 game yes.

Brian891 · 05-17-12, 06:32 PM

trend continues! pirates score in 1st. easy money.