Hello forum.
I have a three team open parlay in which two legs have been completed (and won). The first leg was the Indians over the Twins yesterday in which I received a nice 5 - nil easy win. The 2nd leg was Wawrinka taking out Tipsarevic in 2 sets this afternoon. Now, I'm looking for the third leg and I cannot afford to lose this match.
With that being said, I have two options:
1) find a "guaranteed" winner with a ML on the likes of -1000 or so just to finish out the parlay and get the win. The problem I have with this is that there are no guarantees in betting and I've been burned before by adding a huge ML favorite thinking there is no way they can lose. They can lose and they do lose. Just last week, Nadal and Djokovic went out as favorites on the juice of -1000 and higher. Last NFL season, I had a 5 team parlay in which the only loss of the leg was the Packers at -750 over KC in which the Packers mustered up a measly 6 points. So I don't know about this option. I feel if I pick one of these, I'm going to be sweating till the end and why sweat till the end for a few extra bucks (I'd rather sweat out for doubling my money)
My leans for this option are:
Oklahoma City Thunder ML
PROS: the Thunder are hot and can score at will. They play good team ball that can be too much for the Lakers to handle on the road. Durant and Westbrook cannot be stopped by any tandem the lakers have.
CONS: The Lakers are terrible on the road BUT they have these types of games where they lose by a ton and then come back and dominate from the get go.
2) I find a game that pays from around +150 to -150 and sweat out a game that has a chance of going either way (but could also end up being an easy winner). I like this option for the sole reason that I feel like I'm going to sweat out a game anyway, so take my chances with more money
My leans for this option are:
Boston Red Sox ML over Tampa Bay Rays:
PROS: the Rays are not that potent on offense especially with a few key injuries. Hellickson is a monster at home but is more than capable of giving up the long ball and does not have a good track record against the Red Sox.
CONS: Bucholz has not found himself as he has an ERA higher than 5 (atrocious). The Sox bullpen is highly questionable and if Bucholz goes out after 5 or 6 innings, I could be in serious trouble. Red Sox NEVER hit when I bet on them
Marlins over Braves:
PROS: Buerhle is a left hander and the braves traditionally struggle against the south paws (trend is changing with this new team). Miami coming around on offense and they have two lethal weapons in speed and power. Decent bullpen with a penchant of pulling out games late
CONS: Braves are hitting lefties this year and Minor can be a shut down pitcher at times (hasn't shown in his last few starts) Braves always hit when I'm against them and there BP is top notch. Game can be over with a 2 run lead heading to the 7th.
Boston Celtics ML over 76ers:
PROS: Celtics know how to win these type of games. They know how important it is to get home court advantage back (and quick). These two teams play a very similar style of play, so the game will be close to the end (but Celtics' experience could give them a comfortable win).
CONS: Sixers play great defense and can force turnovers and a loss of rhythm. Celtics (especially Rondo) can easily be frustrated and not trusted in such circumstances.
NJ Devils ML over Rangers:
PROS: The Devils can score in bunches and have the playoff pedigree leadership from Marty Brodeur. They know the importance of being down 2 - 0 heading home and usually bounce back after tough losses.
CONS: Lunqvidst is a shut out machine (has struggled traditionally in the playoffs). Rangers are riding high after an impressive third period and a strong series against the Capitals.
These are just leans and I'm open to other ideas. I want a "sure thing" but know they don't exist. I know that what I choose (whether my own or one of yours) can win or lose. I just want the best play that we all feel comfortable about. My only stipulation...I don't play totals. I cannot put this much money on a team scoring or not.
I really would appreciate the forums best thoughts on what is the best play tonight that I can take home this parlay. I hope my thoughts were clear and make sense and always appreciate support and/or criticism.
BOL to all tonight and throughout the season(s).
sportGTi
I have a three team open parlay in which two legs have been completed (and won). The first leg was the Indians over the Twins yesterday in which I received a nice 5 - nil easy win. The 2nd leg was Wawrinka taking out Tipsarevic in 2 sets this afternoon. Now, I'm looking for the third leg and I cannot afford to lose this match.
With that being said, I have two options:
1) find a "guaranteed" winner with a ML on the likes of -1000 or so just to finish out the parlay and get the win. The problem I have with this is that there are no guarantees in betting and I've been burned before by adding a huge ML favorite thinking there is no way they can lose. They can lose and they do lose. Just last week, Nadal and Djokovic went out as favorites on the juice of -1000 and higher. Last NFL season, I had a 5 team parlay in which the only loss of the leg was the Packers at -750 over KC in which the Packers mustered up a measly 6 points. So I don't know about this option. I feel if I pick one of these, I'm going to be sweating till the end and why sweat till the end for a few extra bucks (I'd rather sweat out for doubling my money)
My leans for this option are:
Oklahoma City Thunder ML
PROS: the Thunder are hot and can score at will. They play good team ball that can be too much for the Lakers to handle on the road. Durant and Westbrook cannot be stopped by any tandem the lakers have.
CONS: The Lakers are terrible on the road BUT they have these types of games where they lose by a ton and then come back and dominate from the get go.
2) I find a game that pays from around +150 to -150 and sweat out a game that has a chance of going either way (but could also end up being an easy winner). I like this option for the sole reason that I feel like I'm going to sweat out a game anyway, so take my chances with more money
My leans for this option are:
Boston Red Sox ML over Tampa Bay Rays:
PROS: the Rays are not that potent on offense especially with a few key injuries. Hellickson is a monster at home but is more than capable of giving up the long ball and does not have a good track record against the Red Sox.
CONS: Bucholz has not found himself as he has an ERA higher than 5 (atrocious). The Sox bullpen is highly questionable and if Bucholz goes out after 5 or 6 innings, I could be in serious trouble. Red Sox NEVER hit when I bet on them
Marlins over Braves:
PROS: Buerhle is a left hander and the braves traditionally struggle against the south paws (trend is changing with this new team). Miami coming around on offense and they have two lethal weapons in speed and power. Decent bullpen with a penchant of pulling out games late
CONS: Braves are hitting lefties this year and Minor can be a shut down pitcher at times (hasn't shown in his last few starts) Braves always hit when I'm against them and there BP is top notch. Game can be over with a 2 run lead heading to the 7th.
Boston Celtics ML over 76ers:
PROS: Celtics know how to win these type of games. They know how important it is to get home court advantage back (and quick). These two teams play a very similar style of play, so the game will be close to the end (but Celtics' experience could give them a comfortable win).
CONS: Sixers play great defense and can force turnovers and a loss of rhythm. Celtics (especially Rondo) can easily be frustrated and not trusted in such circumstances.
NJ Devils ML over Rangers:
PROS: The Devils can score in bunches and have the playoff pedigree leadership from Marty Brodeur. They know the importance of being down 2 - 0 heading home and usually bounce back after tough losses.
CONS: Lunqvidst is a shut out machine (has struggled traditionally in the playoffs). Rangers are riding high after an impressive third period and a strong series against the Capitals.
These are just leans and I'm open to other ideas. I want a "sure thing" but know they don't exist. I know that what I choose (whether my own or one of yours) can win or lose. I just want the best play that we all feel comfortable about. My only stipulation...I don't play totals. I cannot put this much money on a team scoring or not.
I really would appreciate the forums best thoughts on what is the best play tonight that I can take home this parlay. I hope my thoughts were clear and make sense and always appreciate support and/or criticism.
BOL to all tonight and throughout the season(s).
sportGTi
