A couple (of what I think are) crazy lines for Monday

[No coincidences]

TOR +136: Darvish has been really solid so far, but he faces the Jays on the road and an under-the-radar Drabek. If Hamilton isn't playing, I will be on Toronto. Good value here.

SEA +114: You get basically a Cy Young contender in Felix Hernandez at + money vs. a kid with very shaky peripheral numbers in Hellickson. Line's saying take Tampa, but I'm not buying it.

MIN RL -103: The Angels shouldn't be -235 against a Triple-A team right now.

KC +136: Hochevar has the stuff to dominate a cold Tigers' lineup if he's on. Below is starting for Detroit. Don't just assume the Tigers -- like the Angels above -- can just flip a switch and suddenly start playing well again.

Will all of these cash? Of course not. But long-term, they're winners.

[No coincidences]

Might as well add OAK +153 to this list as well. Boston coming home off a road trip and Buchholz of all pitchers is -160? Come on.

[HoulihansTX]

Angels -230

That line is insulting

[lunchbawks]

Oakland +150: Buckholz takes the mound vs a confident Oakland squad.. his numbers and performance aren't good. Meanwhile Milone has allowed 2 runs in his last 2 starts. The kid is good, and buckholz is bad.. Will Oakland hit ?

[No coincidences]

Angels -230

That line is insulting

The Twins aren't good and Blackburn has been horrible, but come on. -230?

[No coincidences]

Oakland +150: Buckholz takes the mound vs a confident Oakland squad.. his numbers and performance aren't good. Meanwhile Milone has allowed 2 runs in his last 2 starts. The kid is good, and buckholz is bad.. Will Oakland hit ?

I don't know, but if anyone can wake up their bats, it's Buchholz.

[lunchbawks]

here's another one

Pitt/ATL u7.5.. under has hit 5-0 L5 games.. Minor and Mcdonald are very good, the hook is a gift imo

[No coincidences]

What do you think about your Jays on Monday lunch?

[lunchbawks]

tough game.. drabek has shown weakness in his short MLB career, then you see Yu with a 4-0 record good ERA to boot.. I don't see any real edge here on toronto, now they win by 7 guaranteed

[2daBank]

wow, the Fish are big favs again? guess i shouldnt be surprised cause Buerhle better than jj but damn if i didnt go look at lines and see this number and think "you gotta be fukkin kidding me! i get +150ish to fade these clowns again"...

early day get a way gm for dbags but im sure the youngster making his 1st major league start will be pumped and ready to go against bats this cold..

[stuntin909]

good day to take all these dogs out of principle. should break win the vig at worst.

[CWD]

wouldn't go against darvish now his first turn against the league shut down a red hot yankees more of the same tomorrow

[2daBank]

wouldn't go against darvish now his first turn against the league shut down a red hot yankees more of the same tomorrow

i agree with this.. while i understand reasons NC would like tor, just not sure how productive jays can be w/o smashing any hrs, and it seems pretty clear yu doesnt give up the long ball...

[nbarbarese]

SEA +114: You get basically a Cy Young contender in Felix Hernandez at + money vs. a kid with very shaky peripheral numbers in Hellickson. Line's saying take Tampa, but I'm not buying it.

I agree with pretty much everything else, but I still like TB at -121 (topbet). Tampa Bay is great as a home favorite (41-27, +.65 U last season) and has been excellent at home overall thus far this season (8-1, +5.50 U). Although improved, last year SEA was 38-62, -16.42 U against teams >500% and this year has performed at the same clip 6-10, -1.04 U.
The top trend for this game:
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY), a poor hitting team (AVG <=.260), against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. 41-12, +30.6U since 1997

Hellickson has been anything but shaky against SEA, last season he was 3-0 with an ERA of 0.81 and a WHIP of .761. Hernandez is a Cy Young quality pitcher and his career numbers against TB are consistent with that (3-2, 2.42 ERA), but I still like TB in this game given the matchup. TB is returning home after a huge series win against TEX, the best team in the majors, and SEA is in the midst of a 10 game road trip, heading to TB after a series loss to TOR.

The line appears pretty accurate to me. I like the Rays here at -121. I don't think there is any substantial value in playing SEA +114.

[CWD]

^^^ yeah i don't see any value in seattle at all. there was a reason hernandez was a .500 pitcher last year and games like this are a big part of it. great pitcher on a shit seattle team vs tampa bay a - top tier team with a great pitcher going at home. felix might need a shutout type effort to win. if anything slight value with tampa.

[ColdBeerHere]

Good thread bro, thanks for posting...I think I like your picks but I am a little drunk now, but will double check them tomorrow...but dang they do look good.....

[face]

i like dodgers +131, they will hit nicasio's fastball/changeup, that's all he has he cannot throw a slider regularly

[guil0000]

liking Seattle and Minnesota also

[crackerjack]

Blackburn is my favorite fade...I might make a small play on laa rl

[ridims]

A's are so tempting to take

[thebestthereis]

Marlins -160 vs the Castro military softball team maybe. Here um ...so they probably win

[HoulihansTX]

The Twins aren't good and Blackburn has been horrible, but come on. -230?

They could play my next door neighbors slow pitch beer league team, and I'm still taking a flier on this line.

[No coincidences]

They could play my next door neighbors slow pitch beer league team, and I'm still taking a flier on this line.

LAA will break out eventually, and we all know Blackburn's a good candidate to have that happen against, but if you're betting that will suddenly happen tonight, you're just gambling and nothing else. I learned that the hard way with this team vs. Lowe on Sunday.

[No coincidences]

I find the LAD/COL line interesting. The Dodgers are +128 at Pinny but +115 at Bodog, while the Rockies are -135 at both sites. Don't see that much difference in the dog very often, especially when the better number is at the sharper book. Might have to look into playing the Rockies.

[No coincidences]

Seattle +124 now from a +100 open. Wow.

All of the other numbers have dropped -- especially Oakland.

[HoulihansTX]

I took Minny, Mariners, and Toronto.

[lvsportpro]

I am taking tampa bay and oakland

[SASH]

TOR +136: Darvish has been really solid so far, but he faces the Jays on the road and an under-the-radar Drabek. If Hamilton isn't playing, I will be on Toronto. Good value here.

SEA +114: You get basically a Cy Young contender in Felix Hernandez at + money vs. a kid with very shaky peripheral numbers in Hellickson. Line's saying take Tampa, but I'm not buying it.

MIN RL -103: The Angels shouldn't be -235 against a Triple-A team right now.

KC +136: Hochevar has the stuff to dominate a cold Tigers' lineup if he's on. Below is starting for Detroit. Don't just assume the Tigers -- like the Angels above -- can just flip a switch and suddenly start playing well again.

Might as well add OAK +153 to this list as well. Boston coming home off a road trip and Buchholz of all pitchers is -160? Come on.
Will all of these cash? Of course not. But long-term, they're winners.

Wow bad day, i had the exact opposite of all these plays except for the angels/twins game which i didnt touch. Even had detroit in your kc game that was rained out. You sure do post a TON of plays in every single sport practically everyday. Maybe you should think and really consider things before you post them...just an idea. Because some people will actually apply these plays and then go play them. Just an idea

[JT OZ]

These weren't his official plays he was pointing out perceived disparity in the lines and where value might be.

[SASH]

These weren't his official plays he was pointing out perceived disparity in the lines and where value might be.

there is absolutely ZERO value in losers. None. And No coin is a good guy, I like him. But it seems like he's constantly posting the first thing that comes to his mind without giving it some serious thought. He's in love with these underdogs in mlb to a serious fault. Theres no self control, no restraint...no discretion in his threads, its just whatever comes to mind. I thought the main objective here was to help others win, and win fairly big. Its hard enough to sift and manuever through all the bullshit and trash in the mlb forum these days, we need No Coin to partake in this like we need a fu*kin bag on our hip.

[BigPage25]

there is absolutely ZERO value in losers. None. And No coin is a good guy, I like him. But it seems like he's constantly posting the first thing that comes to his mind without giving it some serious thought. He's in love with these underdogs in mlb to a serious fault. Theres no self control, no restraint...no discretion in his threads, its just whatever comes to mind. I thought the main objective here was to help others win, and win fairly big. Its hard enough to sift and manuever through all the bullshit and trash in the mlb forum these days, we need No Coin to partake in this like we need a fu*kin bag on our hip.

I bet you bet you bet on all the teams this dude mentioned and loss

[No coincidences]

there is absolutely ZERO value in losers. None. And No coin is a good guy, I like him. But it seems like he's constantly posting the first thing that comes to his mind without giving it some serious thought. He's in love with these underdogs in mlb to a serious fault. Theres no self control, no restraint...no discretion in his threads, its just whatever comes to mind. I thought the main objective here was to help others win, and win fairly big. Its hard enough to sift and manuever through all the bullshit and trash in the mlb forum these days, we need No Coin to partake in this like we need a fu*kin bag on our hip.

Underdogs were hitting 60% before today in MLB for the month of April. 60%.

I posted my thoughts on five games. I never said "play them or else." I never said "tail them because they're locks." Twins cashed. Royals were rained out. A's and Jays were duds. Mariners flat-out choked.

It's easy to post this after the fact, SASH. If you don't like the threads or the thoughts, ignore them. I've said it before: we have idiots posting "this is a lock" or "sure thing" and a bunch of other bullshit around here 24/7. Why people are bothered by my leans I will never understand.

If you're tailing these plays blindly -- or any plays blindly -- I'm sorry, but you get what you deserve. I'm not going to apologize for posting plays that I see value in. Until yesterday, I had been cashing dogs left and right in my thread. Now I have two bad days and suddenly I'm an idiot for playing dogs. Unreal.

[SASH]

I bet you bet you bet on all the teams this dude mentioned and loss

Lol, No. had another great mlb day...perfect 4 for 4. Redsox -151, Rays -141, Rangers -140 (in game/live after the top of the first inning when the score was 0-0, and Pirates +151

[SASH]

No Coin, Im glad your system is working for you, I really am. I just want the best for you. Your a good guy, didnt mean to offend you. But Im also refering to many of your other posts that are non -pick related in the mlb forum, just alot of fluff on your part and what strike me as random thoughts that you feel you have to share with us every 7 minutes. Overkill. Good luck to you

[No coincidences]

No Coin, Im glad your system is working for you, I really am. I just want the best for you. Your a good guy, didnt mean to offend you. But Im also refering to many of your other posts that are non -pick related in the mlb forum, just alot of fluff on your part and what strike me as random thoughts that you feel you have to share with us every 7 minutes. Overkill. Good luck to you