I have a system which involves lots of stats about a team, offense, pitching, etc, all the number stuff, and plug them into a spreadsheet with formulas that I created that basically tell me how many runs each team is estimated to score. Through 10 days I am 127-86-8, so hitting about 60%, with the average odds of all bets being around -105 or so, some dogs, some faves. With my particular compound interest type betting style I am up 172%. Now I'd be damn lucky to keep up this torrid pace all season, I know that it can cool off anytime, like anybody's capping ability can go on a cold streak. Is 221 bets enough to know whether it can work long term? It seems to have potential obviously. Maybe I can give it another month and my bet total might be near 1000, if I'm still hitting 60% I probably have something..... Any thoughts?
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no where near enough sample size but if its working for you then keep making that $$
have u tried going back to previous seasons to see how it holds up then?Comment -
221 bets is not an adequate sample size
sounds intriguing thoughComment -
back test it.Comment -
I would like to see 2 years worth of system data kinda like when the banks ask you for 2 years of most recent income.... GLComment -
I would just call it a success now and start betting it....when you start losing then go back to the drawing board.Comment -
not a big enough sample size.
I knew a capper that had hit with a system for 3 years, and it went in the toilet after three years.
I agree - use it until it isnt working.Comment -
What sites you guys use for back-testing? I can never find those sites....
gamblinisfun give me your system picks every day and Ill tell you if its successfullComment -
221 plays out of the 283 games played YTD??? I'd guess long term betting that many games you will not end up so lucky, but don't let me talk you out of your system; if it's working, keep going -- or quit while you've doubled your money in 1 month.Comment -
if you are winning keep betting but I agree - it takes 2 full years to determine if it is a success, books will adjust line in year and year to year.
Glad to hear you are having success staying above 60% would be specialComment -
I can't backtest it, unless some site has day to day stats on how every team and pitcher did....but that would take so much time to do all that. However I was on all three of the mariners games as they swept the tigers so that could mean something lol. OK, here's my picks for the day, take them for what they're worth: a system being tested and it's april so weird shit can happen. Yesterday I went 10-5, the day before 22-9-1 for gains of 25%, and 36% respectively. So I hope I'm not due for a losing day....
LAA/CLE over 7.5, LAA ML
CHC/PHI over 7, PHI ML, PHI -1
DET/NYY under 8.5, NYY+1, NYY ML
OAK/BAL under 8, BAL ML
SEA/TOR under 8, SEA ML, SEA+1
ARI/MIA under 7.5, ARI ML, ARI +1
HOU/CIN over 8, HOU ML, HOU+1
TB/TEX under 9, TEX ML
MIL/STL under 7.5, MIL+1, MIL ML
LAD/WAS over 6, LAD ML
I havent added any filters to filter out games except for those with a rookie pitcher or a pitcher who hasnt started a game home and away this year. I guess I'll start adding filters if/when a time for losses comes.Comment -
How much are you losing if you go 5-10 or even 8-8 for example? Being up 150%, while still good, is a lot less impressive when you're betting small amounts. If you're betting enough to go bankrupt after 5 straight losing days, it may be best to reel in your bet sizeComment -
250+ bets is a promising sample size but 500 will be a more reliable sample size.
And nevermind the winning percentage. It's not important. I see you didn't write the most important factor when eveluating the record; Total Units Won. If you had placed 1 Unit on each play, how much units you would be up? That's the most important thing. Odds Average don't mean so much since losses and wins may have different odds. But if all selections are total/ATS picks, (and fixed -105 odds) nevermind these then of course.Comment -
I play each pick to win one unit, no chasing, all just straight picks. So far I've wagered a total of 250.57 units and profited 28.05 units. I still have to figure out a money management style for it that will maximize profits, but not add too much risk. Being up so much right now percentage wise is the riskiest, I have my entire BR on one days picks, and if I have a horrible day I'll lose it all. I know that's not the best, but I'm only paper tracking it anyway. The plus side is the compound interest adds up big time. 100 on the first day's picks turns into 105, so I increase my unit size accordingly, the 105 turns into 140, so I increase the next day, and so on until whatever happens happens. I'm going to set some winnings aside each day so I'll still have money left if I were to go 0-25 on a given day, and maybe not even have my whole BR on one day, maybe like 70%, we will see. My spreadsheet tells me what the "unit" will be any given day. I use the goal seek function on excel to make the total amount bet per day whatever I want to wager on the day 100, 105, or whatever it is for the day. The other day for example after I entered all the odds of all my bets it came up with if I bet 100 on the day, my unit to win was 2.91, so I bet accordingly to win 2.91 on all my bets. My total in the end for that day was risk 99.91(odds changed so it's not exactly 100 bet) to win 96.73, and that's pretty close to even money. My bet/payout has been around that every day.Comment -
You lost some money, but you have good potential, hitting some dogs. Probably someone jinxed you, this is how it goes the first day you post interesting stuff. Keep upComment -
So far since 4-17, over 1088 bets my system is 587-463-38, for a winning percentage (not including the pushes) of 55.90%, and total units won being 76.10. Best part of all......NO CHASING!!! If it holds up the rest of the year, I might be able to rule out the possibility of it being just straight up luck. It uses all math/sabermetric type stuff, so I would think it wouldn't change much year to year stat wise.Comment -
if you can hit 55.90% for several seasons, i'd say you got a pretty good system. keep us posted.Comment -
Sounds like you have a very promising system. The key is that your are not chasing and if your avg odds are in the -105 to -110 range, you have a system that will truly reward you on a per unit basis versus playing heavy favorites as is common with many in MLB betting. Anything in the 53%+ range with the number of games it sounds like you are playing would be a home run as long as a 1-3 day losing streak didn't wipe out your bankroll.......Comment -
Any thoughts on filters to play less games but hit a higher %? And when are you gonna start giving out picks so we can tail?Comment -
I thought about filters, but when I started filtering just the really good plays, it seemed it was filtering out just as many wins as losses, even the strongest bet of each day is one or two games above .500... so I just decided I'd roll with it as it's only still being tested anyway to see if a filter even needs to be added. The exact avg ML bet for 435 bets is -118. I've bet 41% dogs, 59% faves. And mainly unders as far as totals go. And I wish I posted picks over the weekend.... I went 23-5 on the ML (5-4 on dogs).Comment -
Ok here's my picks for today, the last time I posted them I lost a little, so I hope posting is no jynx to me....
reds ML, UNDER 8.5
orioles ML, orioles +1, UNDER 8.5
white sox ML, white sox +1, OVER 7
tigers ML, UNDER 8.5
phillies ML, UNDER 9
cardinals ML, cardinals -1, UNDER 8.5
nationals ML, nationals +1, UNDER 7.5
rangers ML, rangers -1, UNDER 9.5
giants ML, OVER 7
Good luck to everyone tailing... past results don't guarantee future ones, but my past results have been very good..even if they aren't posted here and people don't believe me lol.Comment -
Way to go...will see how it goes for you!Comment -
Thanks for sharing today's picks with us. BOL on them tonight.Comment -
GL gmablingisfun...I also have a system where I crunch a ton of numbers...Was thinking of bringing it back but it is a lot of work everyday ! Thanks for posting your pics !Comment -
Yeah it is a lot of work, I'd say like an hour and a half average per day. But hopefully in the end it's worth itComment -
never. only a **** works off a system. if you aint intuitive enough to bet on games based on sheer knowledge and opinion then you shouldnt be gambling sports. stick to cards.Comment -
sol based off your system you work at only 60%....?? why bother even using it. just bet and see how truly good you are at knowing sports.Comment -
Yepp that's about what I am probably looking at each day too.....Lots of time but if you can hit at a good rate I say go with it....I am making some tweaks right now with it....Right now I use 18 different stats....I'm trying to cap 4 games for tonight before I go to work...Let you know what I come up with......Comment -
I'm actually hitting 57.80% on ML bets, it's the RL (-1,+1) that drag the avg down a bit, but % isn't the most important thing, it's profit and as long as its showing one, it stays in the system. And I definitely know sports, I cap using the same stats and things everyone who doesn't use a "system" uses, I just put them all into a numerical formula to try to come up with winners. Everyone knows who the better team is most of the time, but a lot of the time that team doesn't win, if they did we would all be rich. There's tons of information/trends in the numbers that most people don't care to look at.Comment -
Personally, if I hit 55% after 250 bets, then I start paying attention to that system as something possible. If it's still holding at least 55% after 500 bets, then it gets even stronger. Once you hit 1,000 bets and it's still performing at 55% or better, then you have something to hold onto, at least for the present time. Things could always change in the future, but you have to strike while the iron is hot.Comment -
True, and I'm hoping it stays like this for the whole season so I know if it works or not. I can't backtest it because it uses daily stats, averages, etc, so back testing would be possible, but so time consuming it wouldn't even be worth it.Comment -
need to back test it but like u say, keep it running for a while and see if it continues to rollComment -
Forgot to mention that I bet TO WIN 1 unit on all my betsComment -
Damn.... of course when I post I have the worst day I've had yet.... I'll post a few more days and see what happens, but if I keep having shitty days posting plays I might have to say I've jinxed myself....Comment
