BRP’s Picks – April 17th, 2012
9:40 P.M. - Pittsburgh Pirates (Jeff Karstens) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Ian Kennedy)
The D’Backs are unbeaten so far this year at home, and have scored a total of 22 runs in just 4 games this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game in their home ball park. On the other hand the Pirates are just 1-6 on the road this year and have scored only 12 runs in 7 games, yea that’s right just under 2 runs per game.
The Pirates are throwing Karstens, and his 4.49 career E.R.A. would be decent in the AL, but that’s not where he pitches. Although Karstens has actually handled the D’Backs fairly well in his career, with a sub 3 E.R.A. against the team, in reality he is a well below average starter.
On the other hand Ian Kennedy is the ace of the staff for the D’Backs after his coming out party last year. Kennedy has started off this season right where he left off last year, starting the year 2-0 with a sub 3 E.R.A. Kennedy also has DOMINATED the Pirates in his career, allowing them a .106 batting average, and sporting a near perfect 0.64 E.R.A. against the Bucs.
This D’Backs are the better team, with a far superior pitcher on the mound, and they are home, sign me up for some easy money here!!!
D’Backs -1 RL at -140 (2.8 units to win 2)
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815 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Johnny Cueto) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Lohse)
The Cardinals have started the year red hot, getting off to a 7-3 start to the season, and the bats have been hot as of late, scoring 20 runs in their last 3 game series at home. On the other hand the Reds are just 1-3 on the road this season, have gotten off to a 4-6 start to the year, and have managed to score more than 2 runs ust twice over their last 7 games.
The Reds are throwing Cueto, and there is no arguing that Cueto is the real deal, and he has gotten off to a great start this season. Cueto is not quite as good on the road, and his E.R.A. is almost 4 against the Reds, but he is still a quality starter.
Are you a believer as I am that the Kyle Lohse we have seen over the last season plus is the Kyle Lohse we have seen the rest of the season? Lohse sports a career E.R.A. over 4.5, but cut that down to under 3.5 last season, and has gotten off to a phenomenal start this year coming out to a 1.35 E.R.A. over his first 2 starts. That shouldn’t surprise you though, as Lohse has been money in April over his last 3 years, going 7-2 with a 2.93 E.R.A. over that span.
This Cardinals are the hotter team right now, they are home, and I even give them a slight tip in the pitching matchup, almost even money, sign me up!!!
Cards ML at -115 (1.15 units to win 1)
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810 P.M. – Detroit Tigers (Drew Smyly) @ Kansas City Royals (Bruce Chen)
If you have been watching the Royals as of late, you know that every day they are finding a new and more interesting way to lose. Losers of their last 5 games, whenever they find a way to put runs on their board, their staff finds a way to give up more to the other team immediately. The Tigers have gotten out to a 7-3 start this season, and have one of if not the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball.
I’m going to be honest here, Drew Smyly is nothing special, he pitched relatively well in his first start but only went 4 innings. All you have to know here is that if he can give us 5 innings and give up 3 runs, it should be smooth sailing.
This play is mainly based on Bruce Chen, and I love betting against him in this spot. Chen is pretty much the definition of an average pitcher, and has actually gotten off to a very good start this season. One thing Chen has not been able to do over the last 3 seasons though is pitch against the Tigers, in 44 innings against Detroit, he has an E.R.A. over 6, yes, that’s over 6. Even better news for us, Prince is in town now, and Austin Jackson has put everything together.
This Tigers lineup is scary, Chen should get lit up, and if the Tigers can hold the Royals in single digits, this should be a win!!!
Tigers ML at -110 (1.1 units to win 1)
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Action Junkies (not official plays, but strong leans)
Blue Jays ML -135 (Romero owns the Rays, stud at home)
Cubs ML +165 (Big value here, Dempster highly undervalued)
Red Sox ML -115 (Lewis terrible vs. Boston, facing Lester)
MIL/LAD Ov. 7.5 -105 (Both pitchers terrible vs. their opponent)
SF/PHI Ov. 6.5 -120 (Both pitchers terrible in April)
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Buyer Be Ware (games to avoid)
NYY ML -230 (Liriano OWNS the Yankees)
9:40 P.M. - Pittsburgh Pirates (Jeff Karstens) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Ian Kennedy)
The D’Backs are unbeaten so far this year at home, and have scored a total of 22 runs in just 4 games this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game in their home ball park. On the other hand the Pirates are just 1-6 on the road this year and have scored only 12 runs in 7 games, yea that’s right just under 2 runs per game.
The Pirates are throwing Karstens, and his 4.49 career E.R.A. would be decent in the AL, but that’s not where he pitches. Although Karstens has actually handled the D’Backs fairly well in his career, with a sub 3 E.R.A. against the team, in reality he is a well below average starter.
On the other hand Ian Kennedy is the ace of the staff for the D’Backs after his coming out party last year. Kennedy has started off this season right where he left off last year, starting the year 2-0 with a sub 3 E.R.A. Kennedy also has DOMINATED the Pirates in his career, allowing them a .106 batting average, and sporting a near perfect 0.64 E.R.A. against the Bucs.
This D’Backs are the better team, with a far superior pitcher on the mound, and they are home, sign me up for some easy money here!!!
D’Backs -1 RL at -140 (2.8 units to win 2)
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815 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Johnny Cueto) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Lohse)
The Cardinals have started the year red hot, getting off to a 7-3 start to the season, and the bats have been hot as of late, scoring 20 runs in their last 3 game series at home. On the other hand the Reds are just 1-3 on the road this season, have gotten off to a 4-6 start to the year, and have managed to score more than 2 runs ust twice over their last 7 games.
The Reds are throwing Cueto, and there is no arguing that Cueto is the real deal, and he has gotten off to a great start this season. Cueto is not quite as good on the road, and his E.R.A. is almost 4 against the Reds, but he is still a quality starter.
Are you a believer as I am that the Kyle Lohse we have seen over the last season plus is the Kyle Lohse we have seen the rest of the season? Lohse sports a career E.R.A. over 4.5, but cut that down to under 3.5 last season, and has gotten off to a phenomenal start this year coming out to a 1.35 E.R.A. over his first 2 starts. That shouldn’t surprise you though, as Lohse has been money in April over his last 3 years, going 7-2 with a 2.93 E.R.A. over that span.
This Cardinals are the hotter team right now, they are home, and I even give them a slight tip in the pitching matchup, almost even money, sign me up!!!
Cards ML at -115 (1.15 units to win 1)
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810 P.M. – Detroit Tigers (Drew Smyly) @ Kansas City Royals (Bruce Chen)
If you have been watching the Royals as of late, you know that every day they are finding a new and more interesting way to lose. Losers of their last 5 games, whenever they find a way to put runs on their board, their staff finds a way to give up more to the other team immediately. The Tigers have gotten out to a 7-3 start this season, and have one of if not the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball.
I’m going to be honest here, Drew Smyly is nothing special, he pitched relatively well in his first start but only went 4 innings. All you have to know here is that if he can give us 5 innings and give up 3 runs, it should be smooth sailing.
This play is mainly based on Bruce Chen, and I love betting against him in this spot. Chen is pretty much the definition of an average pitcher, and has actually gotten off to a very good start this season. One thing Chen has not been able to do over the last 3 seasons though is pitch against the Tigers, in 44 innings against Detroit, he has an E.R.A. over 6, yes, that’s over 6. Even better news for us, Prince is in town now, and Austin Jackson has put everything together.
This Tigers lineup is scary, Chen should get lit up, and if the Tigers can hold the Royals in single digits, this should be a win!!!
Tigers ML at -110 (1.1 units to win 1)
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Action Junkies (not official plays, but strong leans)
Blue Jays ML -135 (Romero owns the Rays, stud at home)
Cubs ML +165 (Big value here, Dempster highly undervalued)
Red Sox ML -115 (Lewis terrible vs. Boston, facing Lester)
MIL/LAD Ov. 7.5 -105 (Both pitchers terrible vs. their opponent)
SF/PHI Ov. 6.5 -120 (Both pitchers terrible in April)
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Buyer Be Ware (games to avoid)
NYY ML -230 (Liriano OWNS the Yankees)
