Red's Corner - Talking baseball 4/17

BigBoi · 04-16-12, 10:58 PM

Scrubs.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 07:33 AM

Will try to update the Ump info as it comes in during the day.

I am tempted on the Dodgers - Mil under but a couple of things give me pause. Billingsley is notoriously inconsistent, although he may be turning the corner this year he has faced the Pad's and the Pirates...not to mention his .212 babip and 100% lob atm. Gallardo is a stud, but he had a terrible start to last season, and got shelled in his first outing this year, not sure if the slow start will be a pattern or if this is an aberration.

Lean STL and over. For those who follow advanced stats know that Cueto is a prime candidate for regression this year. This guy is a solid pitcher parading as an ace and I think he is overvalued. He has lost 2+ mph on his cheese thus far this season and his k/9 innings rate is falling below 6.

Liriano may have another rough day if he doesn't start throwing his slider with some bite. His FB velocity is pretty much equal to his career averages but his slider is down 3 mph, that says a lot about the confidence he has in that elbow atm. Gibson's strike zone may not be a recipe for him getting back on track today either. BTW, since we are on mph today, Sabat's down 2 ticks on his FB thus far as well.

Bumgarner is no fluke and the Phillies bats have been woeful against LHP. Yet Blanton is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Phillie's rotation, guy knows how to pitch. Not sure if I trust himenough to back and under here though...

Definitely lean Tampa today +132 at Pinny as we speak. I don't think the SP discrepancy is as huge as it appears. Tampa has been hitting LHP really well thus far this season. Could be an under play in here too, regardless of the roof status these two keep the ball on the ground at a high clip.

Lean Balty today too. Chen can keep this Wsox lineup off balance and the O's have some good mojo going right now, they also have been crushing LHP thus far on the season. Thye have had some decent success against Danks and Danks also showing some diminished velocity at start of season avg. 89.2 on his cheese.

Millwood and Masterson, not that big of a gap here as far as I am concerned either. Millwood another vet who has added the cutter and gained new life. Here we go again with the theme of the day, Masterson down 3 mph on his avg FB, and he is a 2 pitch pitcher....hmmm

On a final note, Gio Gonzalez looked great in his first start, and Wandy is a solid vet....slight under lean here. BTW for all this diminished velocity talk today, Gonzalez bucks the trend his velocity has steadily increased since he came into the league. What's up with that?

Forgot the Cubbies. Here is another siutaion where the relative value of the pitchers atm is pretty close yet we get the hotter guy at +150ish. Dempster set up nicely for a bounce back year this year based off his advanced stats, and Johnson has to prove he is fully healthy and has his touch back ( I think he will soon) but I'll take the chance at this number until he gets the.

Happy capping today fellas. Chime in with any thoughts on the games I mentioned or others I left out.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 07:53 AM

i'm on Tribe, O's and Cubs right now. that will probably be it for sides because i like a bunch of totals. O's pound LHP and are raking in general right now. agree with your Cubs assessment. i disagree on Tribe/M's, which scares me a little because i know i'm a homer. Masterson had rough outing last time out, but the weather was pretty ridiculous that day (really windy and cold) and he generally bounces back well from a bad start. Masterson has pitched well vs M's and generally does well on the road (both career starts at SEA were solid; Tribe 3-0 vs SEA on Masterson starts, 6-2 L8 Masterson road starts).

waiting for 9 in DET/KC but would probably still play it at 9'. the other over lean that i have it TEX/BOS

leaned under in MIN/NYY but don't trust those SPs right now so passing. also lean under with HOU/WAS, OAK/LAA, PHI/SF, PIT/AZ.

BOL today, Red, love your daily thread.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

i'm on Tribe, O's and Cubs right now. that will probably be it for sides because i like a bunch of totals. O's pound LHP and are raking in general right now. agree with your Cubs assessment. i disagree on Tribe/M's, which scares me a little because i know i'm a homer. Masterson had rough outing last time out, but the weather was pretty ridiculous that day (really windy and cold) and he generally bounces back well from a bad start. Masterson has pitched well vs M's and generally does well on the road (both career starts at SEA were solid; Tribe 3-0 vs SEA on Masterson starts, 6-2 L8 Masterson road starts).

waiting for 9 in DET/KC but would probably still play it at 9'. the other over lean that i have it TEX/BOS

leaned under in MIN/NYY but don't trust those SPs right now so passing. also lean under with HOU/WAS, OAK/LAA, PHI/SF, PIT/AZ.

BOL today, Red, love your daily thread.

Truthfully, at the number the Tribe is getting I don't think that's a bad play. My comment regarding the SP was just something the stuck out to me when I looked into them a bit. The lineup favors the tribe, and I would give the nod to Masterson over Millwood as well, just don't think they are worlds apart right now like most people would assume at first glance.

All of those unders seem like good possibilities. Despite the roof being open in Zona, that Pirate lineup is downright pathetic right now.

Smyly labored in his first outing for Detroit,not sure he is ready for the show right now and have to think Detroits bats are due for a little explosion. BTW, another factor for Detroit overs this year will be that infield D, decent hands out there but severely lacking in range.

dodger33 · 04-17-12, 08:06 AM

Good info fellas. Biff, did you watch this Smyly kids first outing? The kid looks like he has some balls.
Red i couldn't agree more with you on Cueto. Do you know Berkmans injury status? Billingslys problems in the past have come from getting behind in the count and high pitch counts. I know its only been two games but he has developed a 2 seam fb that he has been throwing a ton of strikes with. I expect him to have a much much better year.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by dodger33

Good info fellas. Biff, did you watch this Smyly kids first outing? The kid looks like he has some balls.
Red i couldn't agree more with you on Cueto. Do you know Berkmans injury status? Billingslys problems in the past have come from getting behind in the count and high pitch counts. I know its only been two games but he has developed a 2 seam fb that he has been throwing a ton of strikes with. I expect him to have a much much better year.

This on Berkman,waiting formore up to date info:
St. Louis is off on Monday. Berkman and Freese both say they will be ready to roll on Tuesday, but Matheny will have final say. Freese hasn't played since Friday and Berkman has been out of the lineup since Tuesday.

I hear you on Billingsly, I too think he can "turn the corner" this year, but that is a familiar song in his case, and two games against inferior lineup's is not enough for me just yet, taking a wait and see attitude atm. BTW, his First pitch strike % over the last 4 years hovered around 59%. In his first two starts this year it stands at 68% (again, easy to pour it in against those two lineups), but if he can pound the zone more that is a recipe for success.

dodger33 · 04-17-12, 08:18 AM

Great first pitch strike stat. For whatever it's worth he was pulled early in the Pittsburgh game for a hitter and was very pissed. I think he has a chip on his shoulder today and tries to go the distance. Just a crazy observation but I won't be shocked if it happens. I know they have been two terrible line ups but what has impressed me most is the getting ahead and limiting his mistakes. It's easy to do against crappy hitting teams like you said but I honestly think he will keep it up.

ebbearsfb1 · 04-17-12, 08:22 AM

Not sure if its useful this early but marlins are 0 and 3 off a win so far this year... no way I would lay anything with the marlins today, only problem is dempster has got shyt run support so far

HoulihansTX · 04-17-12, 08:31 AM

I have Josh Johnson on my fantasy team. Fade him.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 08:36 AM

Anybody liking the Yanks over? Can the Twinkees get 3 off Sabat's? If they can I think there is a good chance this one goes over.

Love The Action · 04-17-12, 08:50 AM

Im rolling with the cubs (+163) (already down to +142), la/milw under, tb/tor under and the indians (-120). Your com pricement about masterson's velocity being down, while true, is not a lincecum situation and is instead more like halladay's drop in that it is intentional in order to adf new movement on his fastball at different speeds. I like masterson in this spot at a decent price.

Good luck today buddy

Redscot · 04-17-12, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Im rolling with the cubs (+163) (already down to +142), la/milw under, tb/tor under and the indians (-120). Your com pricement about masterson's velocity being down, while true, is not a lincecum situation and is instead more like halladay's drop in that it is intentional in order to adf new movement on his fastball at different speeds. I like masterson in this spot at a decent price.

Good luck today buddy

Nice. Thanks for that info on Masterson, stands to reason for the type of pitcher that he is. I am starting to warm up to the tribe as well......

crackerjack · 04-17-12, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Anybody liking the Yanks over? Can the Twinkees get 3 off Sabat's? If they can I think there is a good chance this one goes over.

If that's what you like take NYY team total...

Redscot · 04-17-12, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by crackerjack

If that's what you like take NYY team total...

Good point, my local's TT lines are not up....What are you seeing the Yanks tt at?

Les_Nuts · 04-17-12, 09:36 AM

I'm waiting for the Yanks TT to be put up as well. They hit Liriano well and I can see them easily getting over 5, I imagine the line will be 4 or 4.5. Probably a better choice than taking them on the RL at -120

bleedtoledo · 04-17-12, 09:57 AM

I think it'll be 4½ and over juiced like 40 points

bleedtoledo · 04-17-12, 10:14 AM

It's over 5 juiced at 20 points

Redscot · 04-17-12, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

It's over 5 juiced at 20 points

I rarely if ever make these types of plays,but if it was 4.5 as speculated I probably would have bit.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 10:24 AM

Wind blowing out in Fenway. Lewis a flyball pitcher, Texas always capable of going off....total sits at 8.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Truthfully, at the number the Tribe is getting I don't think that's a bad play. My comment regarding the SP was just something the stuck out to me when I looked into them a bit. The lineup favors the tribe, and I would give the nod to Masterson over Millwood as well, just don't think they are worlds apart right now like most people would assume at first glance.

All of those unders seem like good possibilities. Despite the roof being open in Zona, that Pirate lineup is downright pathetic right now.

Smyly labored in his first outing for Detroit,not sure he is ready for the show right now and have to think Detroits bats are due for a little explosion. BTW, another factor for Detroit overs this year will be that infield D, decent hands out there but severely lacking in range.

i went with Pirates/Dbacks under and Tigers/Royals over. may add other totals later but tend to doubt it. HOU/WAS under getting juiced heavily.

interesting tidbit i saw on twitter: Pirates are first MLB team since 1988 to not score or allow over 5 runs in first 10 games of a season.

agree re: Smyly. he threw a lot of pitches and fly balls, and neither should suit him well tonight with Wegner behind the plate (solid over ump in my book) and a decent wind to left-center in KC. excellent point re: Tigers infield defense. i actually give them a downgrade for defense (even though they don't commit many errors) for that very reason. the grounder to Fielder in the 9th last night on KC's second run was a good example. Teixeira or someone else of his ilk would've gobbled that thing up. Tigers severely lacking range on the corners.

RoadDog · 04-17-12, 10:30 AM

Brew Crew

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by dodger33

Good info fellas. Biff, did you watch this Smyly kids first outing? The kid looks like he has some balls.
Red i couldn't agree more with you on Cueto. Do you know Berkmans injury status? Billingslys problems in the past have come from getting behind in the count and high pitch counts. I know its only been two games but he has developed a 2 seam fb that he has been throwing a ton of strikes with. I expect him to have a much much better year.

i did not catch much of Smyly's first start. i was on the Reds/Nats under at the same time and was completely absorbed in that game.

BigBoi · 04-17-12, 10:36 AM

Houston/Washington dropped to 6' fwiw.

bleedtoledo · 04-17-12, 10:55 AM

Yanks total moved to 4.5 over now just -105, under -125

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by BigBoi

Houston/Washington dropped to 6' fwiw.

yeah, i saw that. pass for me. kind wish i'd played it at under 7 -110 but oh well.

BigBoi · 04-17-12, 11:19 AM

I got it in a parlay.

bleedtoledo · 04-17-12, 11:19 AM

Most the team totals just went off my board? ..

*edit- now they're back & Yanks o5 is -125. I went with my gut & put 1 unit at 4.5 -105

hope liriano gets shelled

No coincidences · 04-17-12, 11:59 AM

What do you think about the Braves/Mets matchup Red? Atlanta has struggled vs. lefties, but Johan didn't show me much in his last start and I'm starting to think Delgado might be a bit undervalued.

As of now, I like the Cubs, Tribe, Royals, Giants and Brew Crew.

I don't know if I totally agree on your Cueto comment and him being overvalued -- I think at +110, the line seems about right to me.

Madison · 04-17-12, 12:20 PM

Just wanted to thank you again Red and you as well Biff especially for the umpire chatter where I'm very weak. Liked the Min/NY over yesterday as I don't respect either pitcher. Got in to late. You guys probably have this in your back pocket but just in case the HP ump last night Davis? was brutal on the picthers and apparently has a reputation as one of the worst. The announcers made several notes to that effect as well. GL to all.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you think about the Braves/Mets matchup Red? Atlanta has struggled vs. lefties, but Johan didn't show me much in his last start and I'm starting to think Delgado might be a bit undervalued.

As of now, I like the Cubs, Tribe, Royals, Giants and Brew Crew.

I don't know if I totally agree on your Cueto comment and him being overvalued -- I think at +110, the line seems about right to me.

You may have a point there as it relates to todays line NoCo. Remember I consider myself a sharp baseball observer, not a sharp gambler

. Atlanta has been brutal against lefties no doubt. In this game we have Delgado, who in 8 career pro starts has gone 5 innings in each of them. He tends to run the pitch count up there. Santana has gone 5 in each of his first starts,obviously they want to be cautious with his pitch count. He also has to be a bit more of a nibbler these days and is not as aggressive in the strike zone. So, with those two factors and one of the games stingiest Strike zones in Schrieber, looks like the pens could play a big role in this one. I am inclined to think that the Mets better stake Johan to a lead before this one gets into the pens, cause I'd put my money on Medlen/O'flaherty/Venters/Kimbrel vs. Ramirez/Parnell/Rauch/Francisco. Both pens are well rested.

No coincidences · 04-17-12, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I am inclined to think that the Mets better stake Johan to a lead before this one gets into the pens, cause I'd put my money on Medlen/O'flaherty/Venters/Kimbrel vs. Ramirez/Parnell/Rauch/Francisco. Both pens are well rested.

My sentiments exactly. I think I'll roll with Atlanta and hope Delgado doesn't fall behind 3-0 or something like that.

BiffTFinancial · 04-17-12, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Just wanted to thank you again Red and you as well Biff especially for the umpire chatter where I'm very weak. Liked the Min/NY over yesterday as I don't respect either pitcher. Got in to late. You guys probably have this in your back pocket but just in case the HP ump last night Davis? was brutal on the picthers and apparently has a reputation as one of the worst. The announcers made several notes to that effect as well. GL to all.

hey, Madison, good to see you, pal. i have ump ratings as part of my model, which are really more for totals than for sides (same with park factor and weather). highest ump rating i have is 1.15, lowest is .85 (it's just what you'd think - cap the total independently and then overlay the ump factor, which can increase/decrease projection by max of 15%). i had Davis as 1.12 last year, but downgraded him to 1.08 based upon his second half of 2011 when his zone seemed to expand. after last night, i downgraded him further to 1.05. Davis was considered a solid over ump for years, but has been different since middle of last season.

i too would like to say "thanks" to Redscot for sharing the ump info - always like to hear other people's thoughts on umps, particularly well-informed people like Red.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 03:31 PM

No Morneau, or R. Martin (means C.C. will be caught by Stewart for the 1st time) tonight in NY, no G.Soto in Miami. Werth playing CF for Nat's.

Redscot · 04-17-12, 03:34 PM

Eddings in Toronto has one of the most generous zones in the business. Also, Toronto source says it is cold and roof most likely to be closed. Two factors that support the under here.