Fading the Sweeper 2012

[G-manFan]

There have been several attempts at working this angle and I have seen some work ok and seen others not make it to the break. A few years ago I tried to bet the favorite in a series from the first game (min -150) and double up if they lost. Thinking that they wouldn't get swept I put a large portion of my BR at risk when they lost the first one or two games, especially if they were heavy favorites. Well that season didn't last very long for me when several favorites got swept.

So I will try a different approach that doesn't put my BR at such a risk. I figure that many managers will probably lay off some after winning the first two games and the other team will be more motivated to not get swept. Also, I should be playing more plus money games in this scenario which should be profitable.

So here we go.....
4/8/2012

Indians -114 x1u
Red Sox +109 x1u
Braves -105 x1u
Twins +114 x1u
Yankees +104 x1u
Cubs +115 x1u
Padres -115 x1u
Giants -122 x1u

Good Luck to all.

[crackerjack]

Its not a bad system except for faulty reasoning... No manager is going to let up because they won the first two in a series.

[G-manFan]

Mabe "letting up" is not a good term, but I would think he may opt to rest some players or not stress his bullpen too much if he's already won the series. It seems that when they're interviewed they alway say "all we want to do is win the series" and that the sweep doesnt really matter(probably BS to show sportsmanship, who knows). Just a thought but thanks for your input. Comments always welcome.

[G-manFan]

4/8/12 recap
3-5 = -2.12

[G-manFan]

Some possible plays coming up for tomorrow. I looked at last season and applied this principle to find this:
Fading the sweeper, 168 winners : 157 losers, that's hitting only 51.69% but I assume more plus money games, so probably profitable.

If you only faded the sweeper when you were the home team, 82 winners : 65 losers, that's hitting 55.78%.

Will start to note home team as well to see if this repeats this year and also do another season.

[G-manFan]

4/8/12 recap. Home team in bold.

Indians -114 x1u. Win
Red Sox +109 x1u. Loss
Braves -105 x1u. Loss
Twins +114 x1u. Loss
Yankees +104 x1u. Loss
Cubs +115 x1u. Win
Padres -115 x1u. Win
Giants -122 x1u. Loss

3-5 = -2.12u

[G-manFan]

4/11/12

Reds -120 x1u
Orioles +157 x1u

[G-manFan]

4/11/12 recap
Reds -120. Win
Orioles +157. Loss

1-1 = 0u

2012 MLB

4-6 = -2.12u

[soccerkewl37]

I use this method also but try to stick with home teams. I realized division match-ups have more sweeps then non-division match-ups. Cubs are avoiding the home sweep today im always hesitant to go against Greinke although he sucks on the road.

[G-manFan]

4/12/12
Cubs +119 x 1u
Pirates +125 x 1u

[G-manFan]

I use this method also but try to stick with home teams. I realized division match-ups have more sweeps then non-division match-ups. Cubs are avoiding the home sweep today im always hesitant to go against Greinke although he sucks on the road.

Looking at the first day by sticking with the home team sweeping or home team not being swept, would have gone 8-0. Gonna go back one more season and look at the numbers. For now not going to limit it to the home team but if another season shows the same trend it might be worth changing.

[G-manFan]

4/12/12 recap
Cubs +119. Win
Pirates +125. Loss

1 - 1 = +0.19u


2012 MLB
5 - 7 = -1.93u

[G-manFan]

4/15/12. Big card today......

Detroit -104 x 1u
Kansas City +109 x 1u
Pittsburgh +140 x 1u
Cincinnati -101 x 1u
Philadelphia -185 x 1u
Toronto -160 x 1u
Milwakee +136 x 1u
Minnesota +165 x 1u
Arizona +103 x 1u
San Diego +190 x 1u

[G-manFan]

4/15/12 recap

Detroit -104 x 1u. Win
Kansas City +109 x 1u. Loss
Pittsburgh +140 x 1u. Win
Cincinnati -101 x 1u. Win
Philadelphia -185 x 1u. Win
Toronto -160 x 1u. Win
Milwakee +136 x 1u. Loss
Minnesota +165 x 1u. Loss
Arizona +103 x 1u. Win
San Diego +190 x 1u. Loss

6 - 4 = +2.43u

2012 MLB

11 - 11 = +0.5u

[G-manFan]

4/16/12. Played this last night, has already dropped this morning.

Tampa Bay +113 x 1u

[G-manFan]

4/16/12 recap
Tampa Bay +113 x 1u. Win

1 - 0 = +1.13u

2012 MLB

12 - 11 = +1.63u

[G-manFan]

4/18/12

Kansas City +126 x 1u

[brigade125]

on this one too.... i cant see kc getting sweep 2 series in a row..sanchez is a good pitcher... royals seem to hit when he takes the mound..

[G-manFan]

4/18/12 recap
Kansas City +126 x 1u. Loss

0 - 1 = -1u


2012 MLB

12 - 12 = +.63u

[G-manFan]

4/19/12. Sorry for the late post, couldn't get online this morning. 4 plays today(3 completed)

Chicago +150 x 1u
LA Dodgers +110 x 1u
Cincinnatti +140 x 1u
Houston +149 x 1u

[G-manFan]

on this one too.... i cant see kc getting sweep 2 series in a row..sanchez is a good pitcher... royals seem to hit when he takes the mound..

Really thought this one was a good pick, even without the sweep angle.

[brigade125]

like this thread.... 2-1 so far... waiting to see the astros game...

[G-manFan]

4/19/12 recap

Chicago +150 x 1u. Loss
LA Dodgers +110 x 1u. Win
Cincinnatti +140 x 1u. Win
Houston +149 x 1u. Win

3 - 1 = +2.99u

2012 MLB

15 - 13 = +3.62u

[dharma2u]

I am very interested in tracking all this year series but don't have a lot of time to update spreadsheets every day. Is there a spreadsheet available somewhere that is updated daily? Thanks in advance!

[JMon]

Three game series: Since 2004

Home team going for a sweep
826-650 SU (-35.40u)

Away team trying to avoid a sweep
650-826 SU (-45.04u)

Away team going for a sweep
461-561 SU (-102.98u)

Home team trying to avoid a sweep
561-461 SU (+53.35u)

As you can see the only angle using sweep methodology is either fading an away team going for a sweep or playing on a home trying to avoid sweep

[G-manFan]

I am very interested in tracking all this year series but don't have a lot of time to update spreadsheets every day. Is there a spreadsheet available somewhere that is updated daily? Thanks in advance!

Don't know of one. Just keeping my own stats and updating as the series occur.

[G-manFan]

Three game series: Since 2004

Home team going for a sweep
826-650 SU (-35.40u)

Away team trying to avoid a sweep
650-826 SU (-45.04u)

Away team going for a sweep
461-561 SU (-102.98u)

Home team trying to avoid a sweep
561-461 SU (+53.35u)

As you can see the only angle using sweep methodology is either fading an away team going for a sweep or playing on a home trying to avoid sweep

Would of thought that hitting 54.89 % of the plays would produce more unit profit than that but thanks for the data. It is very time consuming to go thru all the old schedules. Just using ESPN and they dont give you what the money line was for the game. Still haven't made it thru 2010 yet but plugging along.

[G-manFan]

4/22/12

Arizona -138 x 1u
Boston +123 x 1u
Miami -110 x 1u
Houston +125 x 1u
Seattle +110 x 1u
Baltimore +155 x 1u
Oakland -112 x 1u

[JMon]

Would of thought that hitting 54.89 % of the plays would produce more unit profit than that but thanks for the data. It is very time consuming to go thru all the old schedules. Just using ESPN and they dont give you what the money line was for the game. Still haven't made it thru 2010 yet but plugging along.

Average line for the Home team tying to avoid a sweep is -118, 52.38% is breakeven for -110

Interesting we have 3 dogs trying to avoid a home sweep today! Home Dogs trying to avoid a 3 game sweep are 186-217 (+19.71u) since '04

[G-manFan]

Average line for the Home team tying to avoid a sweep is -118, 52.38% is breakeven for -110

Interesting we have 3 dogs trying to avoid a home sweep today! Home Dogs trying to avoid a 3 game sweep are 186-217 (+19.71u) since '04

Is this data that you've compiled over the years or is this out on the web somewhere?

[JMon]

^ compiled from a database

[brigade125]

4-1 day...outstanding..thx....great system....

[G-manFan]

4/22/12 recap

Arizona -138 x 1u. Win
Boston +123 x 1u. Postponed
Miami -110 x 1u. Postponed
Houston +125 x 1u. Win
Seattle +110 x 1u. Loss
Baltimore +155 x 1u. Win
Oakland -112 x 1u. Win

4 - 1 = +3.8u

2012 MLB

19 - 14 = +7.42u

[G-manFan]

4-1 day...outstanding..thx....great system....

So far, so good! Hope the numbers don't lie and keep us on track to a profitable season.

[G-manFan]

4/23/12

Kansas City -105 x 1u